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Growing Military Challenges to the Islamic Republic

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Dr. Raz Zimmt - The ongoing conflict since the outbreak of the war in Gaza is presenting growing military challenges to the Islamic Republic, raising doubts about the validity of Iran's security concept, especially the effectiveness of two key elements of its deterrence: its proxy doctrine and its strategic military capabilities. Iran's use and support for its proxies, which were intended to minimize the risk of being drawn into direct military conflict, ultimately led to Iran's direct military confrontation with Israel. After the Israeli attack on Iran on Oct. 26, Iranian journalist Amir Hossein Mosalla wrote on X that the "axis of resistance," which had been established at a significant expense to the Iranian budget to achieve strategic depth and keep the threat of war away from Iran's borders, had resulted in Israeli fighter jets attacking Iran. Most concerning for Iran, the war in Gaza posed a significant threat to the survival of Hamas and caused serious damage to Hizbullah, Iran's most valuable strategic asset in the region. This greatly diminished Iran's ability to deter or respond to Israel in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iranian authorities presented their two attacks on Israel - on April 13 and Oct. 1 - as significant achievements, despite Israel's success in intercepting most of the projectiles. The writer, a veteran Iran watcher in the IDF, is a Senior Researcher at INSS.
2024-11-19 00:00:00
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