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Israel Won the Tactical Battle in Lebanon, but Hizbullah Will Use Ceasefire to Rebuild

(Sydney Morning Herald-Australia) Dr. Rodger Shanahan - Hizbullah has been dealt a grievous blow and paid a heavy price for its continuing support for the Palestinian cause in Gaza. By tying any ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to a ceasefire in Gaza, Hizbullah and Iran bet that it could pressure Israel on a second front without Israel fighting on a second front. They miscalculated. Israel has forced Hizbullah and Iran to decouple their fight with Israel from the conflict in Gaza. As a result, Hizbullah's leadership has been decimated and its weapons stockpiles have been greatly reduced. Moreover, Israel's ability to target its senior leadership and to introduce booby-trapped pagers into its supply chain showed that Hizbullah was deeply penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Yet, the idea that Hizbullah will withdraw to north of the Litani River and take its weapons with it while the Lebanese military protects the border with Israel ignores the fact that much of Hizbullah actually lives south of the Litani River and will simply return to their homes and rebuild. Hizbullah will claim that it fought to the end and was still launching dozens of rockets into Israel until the ceasefire. It will now focus on reconstituting its military wing and reinforcing its support base by rebuilding that which Israel destroyed, with Iranian money. No one can deny that achieving a ceasefire is a good thing. But the reality is that this is simply likely to be another, albeit extended, operational pause in the ongoing conflict between Israel and its enemies in the region. Israel won the tactical battle in Lebanon, but the strategic realities haven't changed. The writer, a former Australian army officer who served with the UN in South Lebanon and Syria, in Beirut during the 2006 war, and in Afghanistan, was former director of the Army's Land Warfare Studies Centre.
2024-11-28 00:00:00
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