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A Ceasefire Deal Won't Finish Off Hizbullah

(Spectator-UK) Jonathan Spyer - With the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah, community leaders in Israel's north have noted that while Hizbullah's infrastructure along the border has been extensively damaged, the movement itself has not been destroyed. The proposed agreement also does not include a buffer zone. However, two new elements are included in the ceasefire agreement. The first is a U.S.-led enforcement committee, which will oversee the process. The second is a letter from the U.S. to Israel endorsing Jerusalem's right to take action against rocket and missile launches, and to interdict efforts to supply Hizbullah from Syria. Are these elements likely to make a decisive difference? It can be said with near certainty that the Lebanese Army, heavily infiltrated by officers and soldiers with links to Hizbullah, and UNIFIL will not succeed in preventing Hizbullah's re-establishment along the border. After the 2006 war, Hizbullah's grip was firmly reimposed as soon as the fighting ended. To be sure, Hizbullah is vastly more damaged now than after the 2006 war. Its entire top leadership cadre has been wiped out and the second rank has been decimated. The reconstruction process will begin from a substantially lower point than last time around. Yet, Lebanon is still host to an Iran-implanted deep state that is much stronger than the official bodies of state. This means that residents of Israel's north are indeed set once again to have Hizbullah as their neighbors, though the organization will be weakened and chastened, at least for a while. This means that a further round of fighting is a near inevitability. Hizbullah is the owner of Lebanon. Iran is the owner of Hizbullah. The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum.
2024-11-28 00:00:00
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