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A Trump Win Has Iran Recalculating Its War with Israel

(JNS) Aviram Bellaishe - Recently, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Hossein Salami, warned the U.S. and Israel that Iran will arm itself with whatever it needs to achieve victory. Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Iran is capable of producing nuclear weapons. When it turned out former President Trump had won the elections, Iran realized that it would have to reassess its strategy. In particular, when Trump's high-level appointments were announced, the regime recalculated its moves out of fear that any provocation could turn the incoming president into a more dangerous adversary and could give Israel the green light to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. The Iranians now understand that the order of the day is to establish a communication channel for a nuclear agreement with the Trump administration. This would allow them to buy time, preserve the nuclear threshold status they have reached - and above all, forestall an Israeli attack on their nuclear program. Iranian analysts now feel that they misjudged Jerusalem's capabilities. This revised outlook on Israel reinforces Iran's belief that Israel will eventually attack Iran's nuclear facilities once the opportunity arises. Iran's fear of an Israeli attack is driving the need to stall for time and recalibrate to avert an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In Iran's view, the Trump administration may allow such an attack, especially considering the recent pro-Israel appointments and the backdrop of the ongoing war with Hamas, Hizbullah and other Iranian-supported terror proxies. Tehran understands that, at this point, it is better to project a willingness for dialogue and work toward an agreement that will provide immunity from an Israeli strike while preserving its nuclear capabilities for a future date. Iran's ultimate goal of destroying Israel is seen as immutable, so a temporary delay is a necessity. Israel must act in concert with the Trump administration to damage or destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and set back its arms race for years. The writer, vice president for strategy, security, and communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years.
2024-11-28 00:00:00
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