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The Ceasefire in Lebanon Is a Hizbullah Defeat

(Institute for the Study of War) Hizbullah abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF military operations have forced Hizbullah to abandon its war aims. Hizbullah's leaders had said repeatedly that it would not end its attacks on Israel without a ceasefire in Gaza. Hizbullah claimed incorrectly that it defeated Israel. IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hizbullah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hizbullah's munition stockpiles. Destroying Hizbullah's military organization - which is the only military objective that would prevent all attacks into Israel permanently - was never the stated objective of Israeli military operations. A ceasefire deal, however, will prevent attacks into Israel through diplomatic means. Hizbullah and Iran can recover from this setback if the U.S. and Israel fail to prevent Hizbullah and Iran from doing so. Hizbullah will almost certainly attempt to reoccupy southern Lebanon.
2024-12-01 00:00:00
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