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Will the Israel-Lebanon Agreement Answer Israel's Security Challenges?

(Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - Iran is discovering a reality: there is no military way to stop Israel. The freedom of action guaranteed to Israel in the event of Hizbullah moving south or resuming its efforts to rearm, the significant involvement of the U.S., as well as the transition to the Trump era in the White House, which promises political backing and a continuous supply of arms, and above all, the strength of the blows Hizbullah has suffered, including the elimination of Nasrallah and the severing of the connection between Lebanon and Gaza - all place Israel in a much-improved position compared to before October 7, 2023. It will be difficult for Hizbullah to rebuild its infrastructure in southern Lebanon and its leadership across Lebanon. Its ability to rebuild its arsenal may also be limited, depending on Israel's response. The agreement allows Israel to prepare for a united struggle with the Trump administration against the Iranian threat, with Iran's two main proxies severely damaged and its power limitations demonstrated. It will improve Israel's bargaining position against Hamas, which will lose Hizbullah's backing, and give Israel freedom of action against Hizbullah beyond what is permitted by the UN Charter in the context of self-defense (Article 51), which does not allow action against a mere buildup of the enemy. The real test will be in Israel's response when a Hizbullah violation is discovered. If the response is not only targeted and proportional, but aims to create a new reality in southern Lebanon and the entire Lebanese state, then it will reflect the lessons of October 7. The writer, Director, National Security and Middle East Affairs at the Jerusalem Center, is former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division. This article originally appeared in Hebrew on N12 on Nov. 28, 2024.
2024-12-05 00:00:00
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