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Syria: Better the Devil We Don't Know

(Times of Israel) Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin and Col. (res.) Udi Evental - From the perspective of Israel's strategic interests, the rebel attack in Syria presents opportunities that overshadow the risks. During the years when ISIS controlled territories in Iraq, the Iranian land route from Iran to Syria was blocked. Now, a similar blockage is expected to affect the land routes from Syria to Lebanon. The chances of the recent agreement in Lebanon to restrain Hizbullah in the long term are increasing, as the process of its military recovery, after the war with Israel, will be slowed. At the same time, Iran's appetite for continuing cycles of threats and blows with Israel is expected to wane further, after Israel's effective strikes within its territory in October, which have already cooled its enthusiasm. Some view Assad's regime as the "lesser evil" and argue that Israel would be better off with "the devil we know." According to this view, Assad is a figure with whom Israel can engage in deterrence dialogue (allowing air force freedom of action). He suppresses the Islamist forces that are far from being "Zionist-friendly," and he maintains a certain degree of stability in Syria and control over weapons, especially unconventional ones, within its territory. We disagree. Assad, who massacred half a million of Syria's citizens and used chemical weapons against them, is a central figure in the axis that poses the most significant strategic threat to Israel. Most of Hizbullah's weapons have come from his production lines, his warehouses, or from Iran through Syrian territory. The ties between the Alawite regime in Syria and the mullah regime in Tehran are deep, and all efforts to distance Syria from Iran have been in vain. On the other hand, the many Sunni rebel groups in Syria are not expected to direct their weapons toward Israel, certainly not in the immediate or medium term. They have a long-standing blood feud with Assad, Iran, and Hizbullah, and also among themselves. Israel would prefer "the devil we don't know," as long as it leads to the weakening of Iran and the Shiite axis, which would mean a dramatic and positive shift for Israel in the regional balance of power. Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin served as the head of IDF Military Intelligence from 2006 to 2010. Col. (res.) Udi Evental is former head of the Strategic Planning Unit of the Israeli Defense Ministry.
2024-12-08 00:00:00
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