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The Fall of the Assad Regime: A Dramatic Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Maj. (res.) Danny Citrinowicz - In hindsight, Israel's targeting of senior Hizbullah figures and Iranian Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran's Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian army. The heavy blow suffered by Hizbullah and the fall of Assad's regime threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran. Soleimani essentially established the Axis of Resistance, which relied on Iran's ability to advance its interests, deter Israel and the U.S. from acting against Iran, and keep war away from Iran's borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals. Now, rebuilding Hizbullah's capabilities without Assad is highly questionable. Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a military-grade level of 90% to theoretically "compensate" for the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran's deterrence. However, such a move without Hizbullah's protective umbrella, combined with Israel's demonstrated capability to strike in Iran and the presence of President Trump in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the regime in Tehran. The writer, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran, is a research fellow at INSS.
2024-12-08 00:00:00
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