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Post-Assad Syria: Winners and Losers, Crisis and Opportunity

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) JCFA Iran-Syria Desk - Syria's pro-Iranian Alawite minority has fallen. Damascus was captured by the most formidable element of the anti-Assad coalition, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is led by the Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Despite Western media re-broadcasts of Jolani's recent messages "We come in peace," Jolani is suspected of remaining a committed Islamist who has vowed to establish an Islamic Republic in Syria. Historically, he has been an avowed enemy of the West and Israel. It would be prudent for the West to remember that HTS stands for the liberation of the entire Levant, which includes not only Syria, but Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan as well. Turkey is a major supporter of HTS. Turkey has hosted at least three million Syrian refugees during the 12-year Syrian civil war, and Istanbul has been the site of several assemblies of Syrian opposition groups. Russia and Iran, the former regime's erstwhile supporters, are the losers in the fall of the Assad dictatorship. The Russians will need to negotiate with the new sheriff in town, presumably to oversee Russia's withdrawal from its Syrian air bases and naval facility.
2024-12-08 00:00:00
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