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Assad Falls Thanks to a Weak Tehran

(Wall Street Journal) Jonathan Spyer - On the eve of Oct. 7, 2023, Iran's proxy system seemed at the height of its power. Iran had a formidable ballistic-missile array and nuclear ambitions. A year on, however, everything looks different. The Oct. 7 attack, in addition to being a massacre, was a strategically absurd decision by a tiny statelet to launch a conventional offensive against a vastly more powerful neighbor. Hizbullah's choice to bombard Israel in the following days constituted a similar misstep. Iran's decision in April 2024 to abandon proxy warfare and launch a direct attack on Israel compounded the error. In each case, Israel's response laid bare the profound inferiority of the Iranians and their allies in direct confrontation. The result: Hamas and Hizbullah are decimated, Gaza is a smoking ruin, Southern Lebanon is a pile of rubble, and Iran is exposed as helpless before Israeli air power. The region now sees Iran and its axis of resistance as a paper tiger. The rebels' assault in Syria and the stunning collapse of the Assad regime are the first fruits of this new look. More will doubtless come. The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum and director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis.
2024-12-10 00:00:00
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