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Khamenei Loses Everything

(Atlantic) Eliot A. Cohen - When Hamas's Yahya Sinwar launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood against Israel on October 7, 2023, he intended to deal a decisive blow against a powerful nation-state - and he succeeded. But the state his attack has devastated turned out not to be Israel, but Iran, his key sponsor. It is a persistent folly to believe that wars do not achieve meaningful political consequences. The past 15 months in the Middle East suggest otherwise. After suffering terribly on Oct. 7, Israel has pulverized Hamas, ending the threat it posed as an organized military force. Israel has likewise shattered Hizbullah in Lebanon, forcing it to accept a ceasefire after losing not only thousands of foot soldiers but much of its middle management and senior leadership. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's brutal but botched war of conquest in Ukraine has undermined his other strategic goals. In Syria, Russia's one solid foothold in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine has leached away Russian forces, depriving it of the ability to influence events. All of this set the stage for the dramatic collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. With the defeats of Hamas and Hizbullah, and with the collapse of the Assad regime, Iran has suffered irrecoverable losses. It no longer has a land route to Lebanon; it has lost its most disciplined, well-armed, and effective proxies; and it failed in its two attempts to attack Israel directly while losing its main air defenses in a retaliatory strike. The writer is a professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University and former dean of its School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
2024-12-10 00:00:00
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