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With Assad Gone - What's Next?

(Jerusalem Strategic Tribune) Ehud Yaari - The ring of fire that Iran had planned to establish around Israel has been dismantled with the loss of the single most important link in the chain, Syria. Hizbullah is now locked in an isolated enclave. Hamas is transformed into a scattered armed underground. The multitude of Iranian-sponsored Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units proved to be ineffective in spite of their bombastic rhetoric. Iran's Revolutionary Guards opted to avoid getting into direct continuous exchanges of blows with Israel, after having a taste of Israel's attack capabilities during a year of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, military industries and air defense systems in Syria. Having defeated its enemies, Israel will be looked upon differently by friends and foes alike. For many years to come, its rivals will not dare to test its power. One of the most important commentators in Tehran, Suheil Karimi, warned on Iranian television that "without Assad, ultimately there will be no Hizbullah." Weakened and decapitated, Hizbullah is bound to lose much of its political clout inside Lebanon. Rebel leader al-Jolani did not plan to topple the regime at this time. He had obtained a green light from Turkey's President Erdogan to expand the territory he was controlling in the northwestern province of Idlib. However, when the rebels realized that battalion after battalion of the Syrian army defending Aleppo were taking off their uniforms and fleeing, a decision was taken to gallop to Damascus. The writer is chief Middle East commentator of Israel's Channel 12 television and an international fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2024-12-12 00:00:00
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