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Will Tehran Be Next? Iran's Myth of Power Has Been Shattered

(UnHerd) Prof. Edward Luttwak - Damascus has fallen - something that has as much to do with Iran as with Syria. Tehran had long kept the Assad dictatorship in power, with its Hizbullah militia in Lebanon, the largest non-state army on Earth. But starting in late September, Israel demolished Hassan Nasrallah's organization. Iran's response was to launch ballistic missiles against Israel, which its own Arrow missiles efficiently intercepted. When Israel's air force counterattacked on 26 October, destroying targets in more than 20 locations across Iran, not one of its aircraft was even challenged. Exposed as vulnerable in its own capital, the Ayatollah regime is weaker than ever. And now, perhaps, the revolutionary wind that engulfed the Assad dictatorship could blow all the way to Tehran, as Iranians throw off their fundamentalist masters. The myth of Iranian power was ironically propagated by the U.S. itself. Right at the start of his first term, in January 2009, Barack Obama was terrified that he would be maneuvered into fighting a war against Iran. Conscious of what had happened to George W. Bush, his predecessor, when he ordered the invasion of Iraq, Obama set a new rule, one that lasted all the way to October 2024: Iran may attack anyone, but none may attack Iran. On 27 September, after Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, alongside his entire high command, Iran's response was massive: over 190 ballistic missiles, each the size of a fuel tanker truck, which might have killed thousands were it not for Israel's unique Arrow interception system. Now Iran's population is discovering that it has spent decades in poverty to pay for the massive build-up of the Revolutionary Guards and all their militias. And for what? They have elaborate bases and showy headquarters, but their expensive ballistic missiles can only be used against defenseless Arabs, not Israel with its Arrow interceptors. And clearly Hizbullah cannot even defend themselves, let alone Iran's remaining allies in the region. The writer is a contractual strategic consultant for the U.S. government.
2024-12-12 00:00:00
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