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(Spectator-UK) Jonathan Spyer - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed Shara/Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is now the de facto ruler in Damascus. Western media and governments are weighing his every utterance in an effort to understand what may lie in Syria's future. Has he moderated? Is he still a jihadi? But there is a better way to try and grasp what may now lie ahead. In the period between 2017 and 2024, al-Jolani and his movement were the de facto rulers of Idleb province. Observation of how they governed there is likely to yield clues. Israeli researcher and former IDF military intelligence officer Alex Grinberg has made a close study of HTS's seven-year experiment at governance in Idleb. HTS did not go in for the mad excesses of their rival jihadis in the Islamic State. There was no enslavement of non-Muslim women, none of the lurid insanity associated with IS. On the other hand, what was established was a repressive, authoritarian statelet ruled in accordance with Islamic Sharia law. Women were required to wear the hijab, music and alcohol were banned. No opposition was permitted to the edicts of HTS. Non-Muslims and women were not allowed to be in the representative bodies established. In al-Jolani's prisons, incarceration without trial and the practice of torture were routine. There is every reason to believe that the system developed in Idleb will now be installed throughout the country. HTS's highest religious authority is Abd al-Rahim Atoun, who called the Oct. 7 attacks "the greatest act of Islam in this era." Atoun compares HTS's march from Idleb to Damascus to the Oct. 7 attacks, and requests "the Almighty to disgrace the Jews, suppress them, and curse them and those who support and back them." The government of Israel has been engaged in recent days in preventing the emergent Islamist regime in Damascus from possessing any but the most rudimentary military capacity. Some have questioned the motivation for this action. Yet Israel's decision to disarm HTS as far as is possible is likely to yet be considered prescient. 2024-12-17 00:00:00Full Article
What Al-Jolani's Past Can Reveal about Syria's Future
(Spectator-UK) Jonathan Spyer - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed Shara/Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is now the de facto ruler in Damascus. Western media and governments are weighing his every utterance in an effort to understand what may lie in Syria's future. Has he moderated? Is he still a jihadi? But there is a better way to try and grasp what may now lie ahead. In the period between 2017 and 2024, al-Jolani and his movement were the de facto rulers of Idleb province. Observation of how they governed there is likely to yield clues. Israeli researcher and former IDF military intelligence officer Alex Grinberg has made a close study of HTS's seven-year experiment at governance in Idleb. HTS did not go in for the mad excesses of their rival jihadis in the Islamic State. There was no enslavement of non-Muslim women, none of the lurid insanity associated with IS. On the other hand, what was established was a repressive, authoritarian statelet ruled in accordance with Islamic Sharia law. Women were required to wear the hijab, music and alcohol were banned. No opposition was permitted to the edicts of HTS. Non-Muslims and women were not allowed to be in the representative bodies established. In al-Jolani's prisons, incarceration without trial and the practice of torture were routine. There is every reason to believe that the system developed in Idleb will now be installed throughout the country. HTS's highest religious authority is Abd al-Rahim Atoun, who called the Oct. 7 attacks "the greatest act of Islam in this era." Atoun compares HTS's march from Idleb to Damascus to the Oct. 7 attacks, and requests "the Almighty to disgrace the Jews, suppress them, and curse them and those who support and back them." The government of Israel has been engaged in recent days in preventing the emergent Islamist regime in Damascus from possessing any but the most rudimentary military capacity. Some have questioned the motivation for this action. Yet Israel's decision to disarm HTS as far as is possible is likely to yet be considered prescient. 2024-12-17 00:00:00Full Article
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