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Hamas Is Not Invincible

(UnHerd) Reuel Marc Gerecht - It has become conventional wisdom in Washington that Hamas will survive no matter how hard it is pummeled by Israel. However, Islamic history is littered with failed insurgencies and vanquished militants. It is certainly possible that with the killing of Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar and other senior commanders, the obliteration of most of Hamas's combat brigades, and the vast destruction wreaked on Gaza, Israel will succeed in annihilating Hamas. The group's strength lies in its transcendent promise, never severely tested in battle, that a holy war could drive the Jews from Palestine sooner rather than later. This is the kind of delusional hope that once powered al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Hamas, like Hizbullah in Lebanon, didn't moderate in power. Its extremism stayed vibrant. Hamas's creed promised young men not just martyrdom but victory. Hamas believes in salvation through war, an idea that dates to the days of the Arab conquests. But as the Islamic State can attest, when Islamists start to lose wars, the faithful soon lose heart. Asking young men to kill themselves for the cause can be alluring. But such fanaticism always fades when the death toll gets too high and the promised conquest fails to materialize. Hamas's future now depends on whether Gazans want to support a movement that has done its part to make most of them homeless. Whatever comes next likely won't have the spiritual allure - the promise of expected success - inside a Gazan wasteland. The vile "glory" of Oct. 7 is unlikely to sustain Hamas's young men - and the Palestinian population more broadly - through the years of misery that lie ahead for all of Gaza. Palestinians may yearn for vengeance against their Jewish foes. But Hamas may not benefit from this anger. The writer is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA.
2024-12-19 00:00:00
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