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Making Iran Choose between the Bomb and Bankruptcy

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Hamdi Malik - Iran's long-declining economy has reached a critical point where the government is struggling to provide basic services. The electricity sector is deteriorating rapidly, and officials can no longer guarantee a continuous power supply throughout the year. Systemic failures are also evident in the natural gas sector, the public's primary energy source for heating. The national currency is plummeting as well, driving daily increases in the cost of essential goods even before the anticipated return of Trump's "maximum pressure" policy. A pillar of the Islamic Republic is a concept that portrays Iran as a dominant force under the guidance of "the sagacious Supreme Leader." This image helped Tehran expand its militia network and attract recruits by projecting alignment with the "victorious" side. Yet recent setbacks have severely eroded this perception, compounded by the internal divisions and crisis of leadership that have emerged within the IRGC-Qods Force. The regime's past security strategy was based on foreign militias to provide defensive depth and missiles to bolster deterrence. Yet the recent costs of this approach are undeniable even in Tehran. The Supreme Leader might also be concerned by the prospect of U.S. and/or Israeli military action if no nuclear agreement is reached in the near term. The writer is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in Shia militias.
2025-01-14 00:00:00
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