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The Hostage Deal Is the Price of Israel's Weakness on Oct. 7

(Free Press) Amb. Michael Oren - Israel could not simultaneously destroy Hamas and secure all of the hostages' release. The terrorists who regarded the hostages as the key to their survival would hardly give them up for less than an Israeli commitment to end the war. Israel believed that by increasing military pressure on Hamas, it could compel the terrorists to free the hostages. The strategy appeared to work when, in November 2023, Hamas released 105 of its 251 hostages in exchange for a weeklong ceasefire and the freeing of 240 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Israel reasonably assumed that ratcheting up its operations in Gaza, especially in Hamas's Rafah stronghold, would yield similar results. But Hamas, convinced that mounting international condemnation of the war's conduct would soon force the Israelis to surrender, dug in its heels. Israeli forces entered Rafah and several refugee camps, killed senior Hamas leaders, and dispelled Hamas's hope of opening a second front with Hizbullah in Lebanon - yet no new hostage deal ensued. Instead of buckling to military pressure and releasing hostages, the terrorists shot them. If and when the ceasefire breaks down, the Israeli government is counting on the Trump administration's unbridled support in completing the destruction of Hamas. Perhaps this outcome was unavoidable from the beginning. Perhaps the deal is the only way of reconciling Israel's goals of annihilating Hamas and repatriating the hostages. Perhaps, despite Israel's subsequent military triumph, this is the price for the failures of Oct. 7. The writer is a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and Deputy Minister for Diplomacy.
2025-01-16 00:00:00
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