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(Substack) Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox - If all goes to plan, a terrible war will be over, innocent civilians on both sides can start to rebuild their lives, and the hostages will be free. These are objectively Good Things. On a human, compassionate level we should all be delighted. Tactically, Hamas have taken a severe beating, having lost as much as 90% of military capability and 80% of manpower, although they have boosted their numbers with untrained recruits. Sinwar, Deif and most other key leaders are dead. However, Hamas retains administrative control of Gaza. Strategically, Hamas will consider this deal to be a victory. Unrestricted inflow of aid, coupled with reduced Israeli oversight and reconnaissance, will allow Hamas to rebuild in short order. Qatar, Turkey and Egypt will support Hamas's rebuild to a significant extent. This deal exponentially increases the risk of a Muslim Brotherhood hegemony filling the void left by Iran's Shia Crescent of proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Internationally, Hamas have won the most resounding victory imaginable in the world's media, in Western states, and on the internet. The international press has ultimately handed Hamas a win through the fact of their continued survival and eventual rebuild. Hamas has seen booming popularity in Judea and Samaria/West Bank. The stock of the Palestinian cause rides high internationally. This deal completely validates Hamas's strategy of taking hostages. Without the hostages, this war would have been over months ago, with a convincing IDF victory. The IDF rank-and-file have won every fight. Yet, Israel appears to have seized defeat in Gaza from the jaws of victory. Due to international political pressure, the IDF has been operating with the handbrake on throughout this campaign. In the long term, it is unlikely that Hamas will remain dismantled, or that Israel's borders will be any safer from future attacks in decades to come. The writer, who served in the British Army from 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. 2025-01-16 00:00:00Full Article
Without the Hostages, the Gaza War Would Have Been Over Months Ago, with an IDF Victory
(Substack) Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox - If all goes to plan, a terrible war will be over, innocent civilians on both sides can start to rebuild their lives, and the hostages will be free. These are objectively Good Things. On a human, compassionate level we should all be delighted. Tactically, Hamas have taken a severe beating, having lost as much as 90% of military capability and 80% of manpower, although they have boosted their numbers with untrained recruits. Sinwar, Deif and most other key leaders are dead. However, Hamas retains administrative control of Gaza. Strategically, Hamas will consider this deal to be a victory. Unrestricted inflow of aid, coupled with reduced Israeli oversight and reconnaissance, will allow Hamas to rebuild in short order. Qatar, Turkey and Egypt will support Hamas's rebuild to a significant extent. This deal exponentially increases the risk of a Muslim Brotherhood hegemony filling the void left by Iran's Shia Crescent of proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Internationally, Hamas have won the most resounding victory imaginable in the world's media, in Western states, and on the internet. The international press has ultimately handed Hamas a win through the fact of their continued survival and eventual rebuild. Hamas has seen booming popularity in Judea and Samaria/West Bank. The stock of the Palestinian cause rides high internationally. This deal completely validates Hamas's strategy of taking hostages. Without the hostages, this war would have been over months ago, with a convincing IDF victory. The IDF rank-and-file have won every fight. Yet, Israel appears to have seized defeat in Gaza from the jaws of victory. Due to international political pressure, the IDF has been operating with the handbrake on throughout this campaign. In the long term, it is unlikely that Hamas will remain dismantled, or that Israel's borders will be any safer from future attacks in decades to come. The writer, who served in the British Army from 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. 2025-01-16 00:00:00Full Article
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