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Russia Is Losing Its Status in the Middle East

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Georgy Poroskoun - Russia emerged as the most dominant political and military force in Syria when it sent its troops to support the Assad regime in September 2015. However, with the downfall of the Assad regime, Russia now finds itself in a weakened position. Until recently, Russia had launched airstrikes against rebel forces. Now it is dependent on the same rebels to ensure the security of its soldiers and its remaining military assets in Syria, while hoping that the new regime will allow it to retain at least some presence in the country. Since the downfall of the Assad regime on Dec. 8, the Russian forces deployed in Syria have withdrawn from positions in the south, north, and northeast, as well as the Syrian desert and cities such as Damascus, Aleppo, and Deir al-Zur. This withdrawal has been carried out under the protection of the rebels who have seized power. At the same time, Russia is removing significant amounts of military equipment from Syria, evidenced by a marked increase in large cargo flights at the Khmeimim Air Base and the movement of military and civilian vessels capable of carrying heavy loads toward the Tartus naval base. Russia is gradually losing its ability to freely use the infrastructure of Tartus port. Vessels sent to evacuate Russian equipment were forced to wait for weeks outside the port. For the rebel forces, memories of Russian airstrikes are still fresh, and they may find it difficult to justify why those same Russian forces are allowed to remain on Syrian soil. While Russia and the new Syrian regime may eventually negotiate an agreement for some kind of presence, the new regime no longer sees itself as dependent on or committed to Moscow. Israel, which has meticulously taken the Russian component into account when formulating its policy regarding Syria, now has significantly less reason to do so.
2025-01-28 00:00:00
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