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What Should Be Done with Gaza?

(Institute for National Security Studies) Col. (res.) Dr. Ofer Guterman - Throughout the war, Hamas has maintained civilian control over Gaza, seized humanitarian aid and shelters, enforced its authority through internal security forces, and leveraged its control and the dire civilian conditions to continue indoctrinating the public. Palestinian society in Gaza does not see any ideological, political, or governmental horizon beyond what Hamas offers as a pathway to recovery from the destruction. Hamas is unlikely to hand over all the remaining hostages, as it seeks to retain them as bargaining chips for its survival. The Trump administration is expected to exert direct pressure on Israel to steer the dynamics in Gaza in line with the administration's broader strategic interests. Halting the war and withdrawing IDF forces without stabilizing Gaza or establishing an alternative to Hamas will create a power vacuum that will only reinforce Hamas's rule. A proposal put forward by Egypt, the UAE, and Jordan would establish a technocratic administration in Gaza composed of local bureaucrats and professionals with no ties to Hamas - of which there are thousands in Gaza, many affiliated with Fatah. The Arab states behind the proposal acknowledge that, in the initial stages, Israel would need to retain operational freedom to combat terrorism and prevent Hamas from regaining strength - a shared interest. However, Israel has hesitated to accept the proposal due to the requirement for the Palestinian Authority's involvement, doubting its ability to effectively counter terrorism, given its history of incitement and radicalization. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served as the intelligence assistant to the military secretary to the Prime Minister.
2025-02-02 00:00:00
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