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Israel and the Emerging Trends in Syria

(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Maj.-Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen - The constant search by Middle East actors for new fighting opportunities lies in their fundamental perception of all situations of calm, even prolonged periods of apparent peace, as temporary. The parties view such phases not as peace but as truce periods during which they refrain from fighting. The Westerner, trying to bring his own outlook to Middle Eastern dynamics, clings to the belief that even if a truce starts out as temporary, the parties involved will lose their desire to return to the fighting once stability has been established. The Westerner simply does not understand, or chooses to ignore, that these are people of faith. One does not negotiate over one's religious dreams, and one does not forget them. In the Middle East, nothing outweighs religious and national dreams. Those dreams never fade; they rather await the right opportunity. The rebel offensive in Syria teaches an important tactical lesson. As on Oct. 7, we saw the outbreak of rapid battle movement involving civilian vehicles, including motorcycles, SUVs and vans, in mobile and agile groups. No one who promises a demilitarized Palestinian state will be able to stop the Palestinians from purchasing motorcycles and SUVs. Israelis should give thought to the image of a raiding party on motorcycles and jeeps breaking into Israel. Even the best intelligence experts had difficulty predicting the tsunami of the rebel assault that so swiftly toppled the Syrian government and its army. There is a great lesson here in recognizing the limitations of human knowledge. We cannot pretend to know or be able to control events that occur suddenly and unpredictably. Prime Minister Netanyahu wisely emphasized that Israel will try not to interfere in the new order being organized in Syria. However, Israel has an interest in influencing developments in southern Syria in the Yarmouk Basin, where, until recently, Shiite militias took part in efforts to smuggle weapons to the Palestinian Authority and towards the Kingdom of Jordan. By defensively penetrating the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, Israel's strategic purpose is to maintain Israeli control of the Syrian space in front of the border: to project Israeli military power onto the trends developing in Syria in order to create a position of influence and bargaining to secure Israeli security interests in the emerging system there. The writer served in the IDF for 42 years, commanding troops in battles with Egypt and Syria.
2025-02-06 00:00:00
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