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Hizbullah's Soul-Searching Reveals Its Defeat

(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen - As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hizbullah, announced on Nov. 27, 2024, expires, the Lebanese army is delaying taking control of the area south of the Litani River. Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hizbullah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire beyond 60 days. It appears that Hizbullah's current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. Hizbullah is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion's share of its command, and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, boasting about the great defeat of the "Zionist enemy" rings hollow. Hizbullah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the array of ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for a "second strike" capability against Israel. The most severe of the many blows Hizbullah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite "axis of evil" in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hizbullah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems accelerated the undermining of Tehran's grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
2025-02-09 00:00:00
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