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The Political Shift in Lebanon - Challenges for Israel

(Institute for National Security Studies) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi - The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister signal the beginning of a new era in Lebanon and another painful blow to Hizbullah, following its defeat in the war against Israel and the collapse of Assad's regime in Syria. Hizbullah's weakened position enabled the opposition forces - backed by the U.S., France, and Saudi Arabia - to secure a required majority, even compelling Hizbullah to reluctantly support Aoun, while Salam was elected without Hizbullah's endorsement. This new leadership in Lebanon presents a potential opportunity for Israel, as both Aoun and Salam share an interest in reducing Iran's and Hizbullah's influence and in disarming the organization. However, their immediate priority is to rehabilitate collapsing Lebanon and not a direct military confrontation with Hizbullah, which is focused on maintaining its standing and preserving its military power. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served 26 years in the IDF and 12 years in the National Security Council, including as deputy national security adviser for foreign policy.
2025-02-09 00:00:00
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