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A Paradigm Shift for the Middle East

(Foreign Affairs) Elliott Abrams - A year and a half ago, Iran's nuclear weapons program was steadily producing enriched uranium; by 2024, it had enough for several bombs. Washington was largely not enforcing its sanctions on Iran, greatly improving the regime's finances. And the "ring of fire" of Iranian proxies - Hizbullah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen - seemed to be a problem Israel could not solve. But since then, Israel has turned the tables. Hamas has survived the invasion of Gaza and remains dominant there. But it will never again pose a serious military threat to Israel. The Israelis have wiped out Hizbullah's leadership and given Lebanon a chance to reclaim its sovereignty. Assad's regime is gone, and the weapons highway that has long run from Iran through Syria to Lebanon, Gaza, Jordan, and the West Bank appears to be closing. Trump can take advantage of the situation, but only if his administration is willing to abandon Washington's habitual goal in the Middle East - "stability" - and presses instead for dramatic changes that will bolster its interests and allies and actively weaken its adversaries. The writer is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2025-02-11 00:00:00
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