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Deterrence Is Just an Educated Guess

(Ynet News) Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Yanai - Deterrence is based on the assumption that adversaries will refrain from attacking out of fear of severe retaliation. However, deterrence is an elusive and problematic concept. Deterrence does not guarantee the prevention of threats. Deterrence operates in the psychological and perceptual sphere. But how can one accurately assess how an adversary perceives the severity of the consequences or the credibility of the threat? States and terrorist organizations may interpret deterrent threats differently from how they were intended. Moreover, deterrence assumes a rational calculation of cost versus benefit. However, enemies are often driven by ideological or religious beliefs, which do not conform to materialistic rationality. History is filled with cases where nationalistic, political, or personal motivations outweighed rational calculations. Additionally, deterrence is not a stable model but rather a temporary state that erodes over time. Internal political shifts, geopolitical changes, and military developments alter an adversary's strategic calculus, leading to reassessments of risk. Over time, enemies may test the limits of deterrence. When deterrence erodes, the adversary's response often takes the form of a surprise attack. Pearl Harbor, the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, the Yom Kippur War, and the October 7 Hamas attack are all examples of when adversaries, despite being perceived as deterred, launched offensives based on strategic calculations that differed entirely from those assumed by the deterring side. For all these reasons, deterrence cannot serve as the cornerstone of Israel's national security doctrine. Instead, Israel must embrace a doctrine of prevention: proactively denying adversaries the capabilities and motivations to act against it in the first place. The writer headed the IDF Planning Branch and the Ground Forces Command.
2025-03-06 00:00:00
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