Daily Alert Archives

Iran Could Lose Iraq - The Axis of Resistance Is Primed to Take Another Hit

(Foreign Affairs) Michael Knights and Hamdi Malik - Ever since its revolution in 1979, Iran has cultivated a network of proxies and friends throughout the Middle East. But events over the past year have upended the regional order. Iran-backed Iraqi militias attacked U.S. forces and Israeli targets regularly throughout 2024, killing three U.S. soldiers in a drone strike in March of that year. But these militias appear to have changed course. They have not launched a strike since early December - a sign that they are growing more fearful of attracting Washington's attention. Iraq's politicians also seem more eager than usual to appease the U.S. Iraq's government, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is a coalition closely allied with Iran. But Sudani's team in January removed an arrest warrant on U.S. President Donald Trump for ordering the killing of terrorists in Baghdad during his last administration; agreed to release Princeton researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who has been held hostage by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia; and passed a vital budget amendment long sought by Iraq's Kurds, the segment of Iraqi society with the closest ties to Trump. Iraq is a cash cow for Tehran. Iran avoids sanctions by moving its oil into Iraq's waters so it can be falsely labeled as Iraqi and exported to world markets. Iran-backed militias in Iraq, such Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah - both designated by the U.S. as terrorist organizations - steal Iraqi oil by pilfering it from wells directly or by creating fake companies that unfairly receive government-subsidized fuel. In 2014, the Popular Mobilization Forces, a consortium of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, was brought under the nominal control of the Iraqi government. The PMF now receives more than $3 billion of Iraqi government funding each year, much of it in the form of salaries for its 250,000 militiamen. Many of these fighters fire rockets at U.S. bases and fought in Syria at Iran's request. Sudani has allowed the PMF to establish its own economic conglomerate, the Muhandis General Company, which partners with Chinese and IRGC-run companies to receive oil and construction contracts from Iraq's government. Tehran has control over Baghdad when it counts, such as when a prime minister is picked, when an IRGC force wants to transit Iraq, or when Iran wants to fire a drone at U.S. military advisers from Iraqi soil. Washington can disrupt this pattern. Over the past decade, the U.S. government developed a habit of backing Iraqi prime ministers even if they were Iranian puppets. But Washington should do away with such an approach. ISIS militants are no longer banging on the doors of Baghdad. The vast majority of Iraqis have little allegiance to Tehran or Washington. Instead, they simply react to incentives. Sanctions and tough diplomacy could help Washington improve its position with Iraq. After the fall of Assad and the weakening of Hizbullah, U.S. officials may be able to further dismantle Iran's regional proxy network. Michael Knights is a senior fellow and Hamdi Malik is an associate fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2025-03-13 00:00:00
Full Article