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Hamas's Oct. 7 Attack Was the Greatest Palestinian Strategic Blunder since the Rejection of the UN Partition Resolution in 1947

(Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead - With so much going on in the Middle East, it's more vital than ever to distinguish between the deep trends bringing lasting change to the region and the dramatic but ultimately less important events that often dominate the headlines. Among the major developments, we can count the strategic defeat of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," Russia's loss of influence following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey's increasing engagement in Middle East politics, and the continuing decline of Egypt as a regional force. Power in the region has passed to Persian Gulf states as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE jostle for influence. Israel is emerging from its war with Iran and its proxies more powerful and less isolated than before. Not since the aftermath of the Israeli War of Independence have the Palestinians been this weak or this divided. Yet Israel's worst nightmare, the Iranian nuclear program, is if anything becoming a greater danger. Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come to the end of the road. Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel was the greatest strategic blunder by Palestinian leaders since the rejection of the UN partition resolution in 1947. The Oct. 7 war has, thus far, brought Gaza's population nothing but misery and death. Civilians are caught between relentless Israeli attacks and fanatical Hamas terrorists who hide military facilities in hospitals and schools. President Trump's interest in "relocating" Palestinians from Gaza is an important break. Given disenchantment with their political leaders and despair over the prospects of economic development, more Palestinians may choose to check out of the conflict and seek better lives elsewhere. The biggest question in the Middle East today involves the future of America's role. Everyone wants American support; all fear the consequences if the American president sides with their rivals. President Trump wants what every American president has wanted since World War II: a quiet Middle East that pumps oil and gas and buys American goods (including arms) without entangling the U.S. in more wars. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College.
2025-03-25 00:00:00
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