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Turkey's Internal Crisis and Strategic Expansion

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - The recent wave of protests sparked by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu - President Erdogan's most formidable political rival - has exposed the fragility of political stability in Turkey. Yet Erdogan, who still controls the military, judiciary, and most of the media, has shown a remarkable capacity to outmaneuver his opponents. The U.S. has avoided confrontation with Erdogan. Washington remains deeply concerned about Turkey's potential pivot toward the Sino-Russian axis and seeks to keep Ankara loosely tethered to the NATO framework. For Europe, Turkey has positioned itself as a buffer against mass migration. Turkey also holds substantial leverage over Germany and France, both of which maintain large Turkish diaspora populations and economic ties. As such, Israel cannot afford to rely on European alignment against Turkey. Erdogan is seeking to secure dominance in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. In Syria, Turkey's aim is not merely anti-Kurdish containment or border security, but to carve out a sphere of influence reaching toward the Israeli frontier - a neo-Ottoman corridor of Sunni control. Turkey's maritime expansion is central to Erdogan's vision. It is no longer about defense, but projection - of force, prestige, and deterrence. Six submarines, co-produced with Germany, are scheduled to be fully operational by 2027. A domestically built light aircraft carrier, TCG Anadolu, is nearing completion. These advancements have serious implications for Israel. Submarines could loiter undetected near Israeli offshore gas rigs or communication cables, while surface vessels could disrupt shipping lanes, intimidate energy exploration efforts, or impede undersea infrastructure development. Turkey's naval assertiveness opens a new front for Israel. The Eastern Mediterranean has long been treated as a secure flank. That assumption no longer holds. Israel faces increased risks to energy security, trade flows, and maritime sovereignty. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-04-01 00:00:00
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