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Turkey's Expanding Military Footprint Threatens Israel

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah - In recent years, Turkey has emerged as one of the most active military powers in the Middle East and Africa, establishing bases, deploying troops, and forging new military alliances from Cyprus, northern Iraq, and Syria to Somalia and Qatar, and from Libya to Chad. However, these moves bring Turkish forces potentially into conflict with other regional players, including Egypt and Israel. Turkey maintains a strong and expanding military presence in northern Iraq in its fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Moreover, Turkey maintains tank battalions and special forces in northeast Iraq. In Syria, Turkey controls parts of the north and Turkey has posed itself as the protector of the new regime against Iranian subversion. In Qatar, Turkey has deployed 4,000 troops to the Tariq bin Ziyad base near Doha as an assertion of its role as a protector of its ideological ally. Turkey operates its largest overseas military base in Somalia at Camp TURKSOM, near Mogadishu. Turkish troops are also deployed in the two mains cities of eastern Chad, Abeche and Faya Largeau, along the border with Sudan. Turkey maintains over 30,000 troops in Northern Cyprus, a symbol of the unresolved conflict since the 1974 division of the island. Turkey's support for Hamas, its criticism of Israeli policies in Gaza and Jerusalem, and its ambitions in Syria are significant flashpoints in the Israel-Turkey equation. Israeli air operations in Syria - primarily targeting Iranian assets - frequently occur in airspace close to Turkish-controlled areas. As Turkey deepens its entrenchment in Syria through new military outposts and intelligence activities, the risk of accidental or intentional encounters rises. Moreover, Turkish cooperation with anti-Israel actors could draw Israeli responses. Yet, a direct military clash between the two is unlikely in the short term. Both Ankara and Jerusalem are skilled at managing tensions through diplomatic channels. The writer, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
2025-04-29 00:00:00
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