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Then & Now: Hamas Six Months after the Death of Yahya Sinwar

(Gzero) Riley Callanan - Yahya Sinwar's death marked a turning point for Hamas, and the leadership role fell to his brother, Mohammed Sinwar, the chief planner behind Gaza's tunnel infrastructure and Hamas's former head of logistics and manpower. Six months into his leadership, the question looms: Where does the group stand today? Mohammed Sinwar assumed control of the group at a time of growing weakness. The wider regional response his brother had counted on never materialized. Iran is increasingly focused on domestic stability, and Hizbullah is now badly weakened. Israel continues to receive robust military support from the United States. Now: Eighteen months into Israel's ground campaign in Gaza, Hamas is militarily diminished, organizationally disjointed, and politically weak. "Hamas is less cohesive than it probably has been at any point in the last decade," says Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. "There seem to be major shortages in their military arsenal." Their only remaining leverage, he notes, is the 59 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza. Public frustration has begun to boil over. As the humanitarian crisis deepens, protests have erupted inside Gaza. Panikoff cautions against overstating the momentum behind the movement: "At the end of the day, it's still Hamas that has the guns and the weapons. Even with protests, it's hard to imagine the people of Gaza being able to mount a meaningful uprising....After a year and a half of fighting, weapons and ammunition are running low. Resupply from Iran is going to be harder than before." An end of the conflict in Gaza hinges on Hamas relinquishing its arms and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, something that Panikoff says "will probably never be realistic."
2025-05-04 00:00:00
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