Daily Alert Archives

The Houthis Will Likely Exploit the Ceasefire with the U.S. to Reconstitute Themselves while Continuing to Target Israel

(Institute for the Study of War) The Houthis will likely exploit the ceasefire with the United States to reconstitute themselves while continuing to target Israel. The air campaign will only have temporary effects, regardless of the degree to which the campaign degrades Houthi capabilities. The Houthis can replenish their drone and missile arsenal through a combination of shipments from Iran and domestic production using goods purchased on the international market. The Houthi-U.S. ceasefire is reportedly a "verbal understanding" rather than a formal agreement, and the conditions remain ambiguous. U.S. airstrikes have targeted and killed mid-level Houthi commanders and technical experts, which presumably temporarily disrupted the Houthi chain of command. The Houthis are a well-entrenched military and political organization with decades of wartime experience, which will make it possible for the Houthis to rapidly replace dead commanders and experts. Houthi officials have clarified that their ceasefire with the United States does not include Israel, and that they will continue to attack Israel in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis will almost certainly resume attacks targeting international shipping again in the future and can do so for reasons and at a time of their choosing. An unspecified Houthi spokesperson separately told Al Jazeera on May 7 that the Houthis will continue to target Israeli ships until Israel transfers aid into the Gaza Strip. The Houthis launched three drones targeting Eilat Airport in southern Israel and an Israeli military target in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area on May 7 after the U.S. ceasefire took effect. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) intercepted one of these drones. These attacks likely represent a continuation of the Houthis' effort to "blockade" Israel, but the Houthis have decided to target Israeli airports rather than Israeli shipping. Attacks targeting Israel use different weapon systems than the attacks targeting maritime shipping. Attacks targeting Israel require medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range drones, while maritime shipping attacks can use shorter-range drones and anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles. This means that the Houthis can rebuild their anti-ship missile stockpile that they will need for future campaigns in the Red Sea.
2025-05-08 00:00:00
Full Article