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Local Elections Reveal Lebanon's Shiite Bloc Faltering

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - In local elections in Lebanon, the joint Amal-Hizbullah list once again swept the board across the vast majority of Shiite-majority areas. In strongholds like Nabatieh, Baalbek, and Tyre, the victory margins were massive. The joint list secured majorities in over 90% of the Shiite municipal councils. However, voter turnout was only around 37%. In the Baalbek-Hermel region, turnout plunged to 28%, with Tyre only fractionally better. This stood in sharp contrast to Maronite areas (47-50%). Thus, the Shiite "victory" appeared less a renewed, enthusiastic public mandate and more a consequence of the absence of credible, viable alternatives. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and other state security services have recently shown a surprising assertiveness. Operations to dismantle illegal checkpoints and disrupt smuggling routes, some allegedly linked to networks protected by elements close to Hizbullah, signal a tentative reclaiming of state authority. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-06-05 00:00:00
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