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Iran Needs Regime Change, but that Can't Be the Goal

(JNS) Jonathan S. Tobin - The notion that the Islamist regime in Iran was the "strong horse" of the Middle East, whose terrorist allies and nuclear program could threaten Israel's destruction and intimidate moderate Arab states into subservience while maintaining its iron grip on despotic power at home, has been demolished. Moreover, the belief that the U.S. would always stop Israel from striking at Iran's nuclear program out of fear of retaliation has also turned out to be mistaken. By making it clear that Israel could no longer tolerate a terrorist state on its border, Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks set in motion a series of events that have become disastrous for Iran. The regime's allies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria have been essentially demolished. And its ability to defend its own territory has been exposed as a myth by Israel. The indefinite survival of a government that oppresses its own people with the same revolutionary fervor and medieval Islamist ideas that it seeks to foist on the rest of the Middle East - and the world, for that matter - has always been questionable. Yet it's possible to argue that, as much as the current campaign to strip Iran of its ability to harm other nations is justified, the question of replacing its government should not be a war goal for Israel or the U.S. It may be that the Islamist fervor of 1979 is gone, along with faith in the regime. But the forces that back it, primarily the IRGC, remain vast, with no sign that they are going to let their domestic opponents win without a fight. The finances and the survival of a vast number of government operatives and allies depend on the regime remaining in power. Nor should we count on the Iranian people rising up in rebellion. No evidence exists of a coherent or effective political opposition inside Iran. Rather than counting on finally finishing the conflict in the near future, those who understand the necessity for stopping the Iranian nuclear threat should be prepared to settle for something short of regime change. As long as the U.S. makes it clear to other nuclear regimes, like China, Russia and North Korea, that it will not tolerate their helping Iran to get a weapon, a satisfactory end to the current campaign might be possible without it involving America or Israel in the dubious pursuit of a friendly government in Tehran. The focus seems clear: obliterating Iran's nuclear facilities and military power. But nation-building should be off the table. It's up to the Iranian people to free themselves, not Israel or the U.S.
2025-06-20 00:00:00
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