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The Iranian Government Is Facing Its Most Dangerous Moment since 1979

(Al Arabiya-Saudi Arabia) Dr. Majid Rafizadeh - The direct war between Iran and Israel has now reached an intensity and level of escalation never seen in the history of the Islamic Republic. What was once limited to proxy warfare, cyberattacks, and covert assassinations has now evolved into a full-scale aerial war between two regional powers. The ferocity, precision, and sustained nature of Israeli strikes mark a dramatic departure from past confrontations, and the Iranian government now finds itself in the most precarious and dangerous position since the 1979 revolution. Iran's military doctrine has always rested on the assumption that the next war would be fought on land or through proxy groups. However, the current confrontation with Israel is being waged from the skies - via drones, advanced fighter jets, and precision missile strikes - and in this arena, Israel holds overwhelming superiority. As the war continues, the Islamic Republic's ability to retaliate effectively diminishes by the day. Iran's missile barrages have failed to significantly alter the course of the war and its missile arsenal is rapidly being depleted. Without it, the Iranian government loses both strategic leverage and internal confidence. Meanwhile, Israel is conducting daily operations against high-value military and nuclear targets across Iran. Even if the Iranian government begins to seek a ceasefire or de-escalation, will Israel agree to pause its operations? From the Israeli perspective, this may be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally degrade Iran's military capacity and prevent it from ever becoming a nuclear-armed state. If Jerusalem believes it can achieve that objective now, with limited long-term risk, it may choose to continue its campaign rather than agree to a ceasefire that would allow Iran to regroup.
2025-06-20 00:00:00
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