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Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel-Iran War

(Substack) Maj. (ret.) John Spencer - War is the deliberate application of force in pursuit of political objectives. In the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, based on what can be objectively and openly assessed, Israel and the U.S. achieved overwhelming success at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Iran, while executing limited retaliation, suffered a decisive defeat. Most importantly, Iran is no longer as close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. Israel struck dozens of critical Iranian targets including nuclear facilities, air bases, missile launchers, drone hubs, and leadership compounds. Iran's air defenses, including Russian-built systems, failed to stop any manned aircraft, while Israel demonstrated complete air superiority and the operational freedom to hit any target anywhere inside Iran. This display of power shattered the myth of Iran's invulnerability. Israel signaled to the region and to the world that Iran can be struck, its infrastructure can be broken, and its leadership can be targeted without hesitation. Over 20 senior Iranian military commanders were killed, while at least 14 nuclear scientists were eliminated. There can be no question that Iran's nuclear program has been set back drastically. The scale of damage to enrichment facilities, the elimination of key nuclear scientists, the destruction of centrifuge production lines, and the targeting of missile development infrastructure have dealt a blow that Iran cannot easily recover from. A new precedent has been set: Iran must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons - not through diplomatic statements, not through unenforced sanctions, and not through fragile deals, but with decisive action if necessary. The U.S. helped secure a ceasefire - one that preserved Israeli gains, avoided regional escalation, and altered Iran's nuclear trajectory. No American aircraft were lost. No soldiers were killed. The administration demonstrated a doctrine of force without occupation. No regime change. No long-term ground presence. The world now faces a weakened Iran. Its nuclear program is degraded. Its proxies are silent. Its credibility is shattered. And the principle that force can be used morally and precisely, in defense of peace, was upheld. The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point.
2025-06-25 00:00:00
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