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The Israel-Iran War: Concluded but Not Resolved

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Dr. Raz Zimmt - The U.S. decision to actually use military leverage to prevent Iran's breakout toward nuclear weapons is an important precedent that may ease the path for future administrations to do the same if necessary. Iran is likely to portray the war as a success regardless of its actual outcome in an effort to construct a narrative that the Islamic Republic is capable of withstanding prolonged confrontation with Israel and causing it serious harm in return. There is no indication that Iran is currently interested in returning to a negotiated framework - especially not one that would require concessions perceived in Tehran as capitulation to U.S. dictates, including the relinquishment of Iran's enrichment capabilities. Moreover, it is doubtful that Iran would agree to an intrusive inspection mechanism by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If no agreement is reached, Israel will have to pursue a long-term campaign, combining kinetic strikes with covert operations to prevent an Iranian breakout. On the other hand, a nuclear deal would do little to prevent continued progress along a covert path. Moreover, any agreement that results in lifting economic sanctions would offer the regime a lifeline and enhance its capacity to continue its malign activities across multiple arenas. It could also restrict Israel's freedom of action against Iran. The battle against Iran is far from complete. The Israeli and American strikes do not offer a comprehensive answer to the full range of threats posed by the Islamic Republic - which openly calls for Israel's destruction. Ultimately, the long-term solution to the Iranian threat lies in regime change in Tehran. The writer, a veteran Iran watcher in the IDF, is Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at INSS.
2025-06-29 00:00:00
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