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Where Are Things Headed with Iran?

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - In June 2025, following a series of Israeli strikes deep within Iran - which inflicted lethal damage on military, nuclear, and governmental infrastructure - the Islamic Republic found itself humiliated, surprised, and, above all, exposed. But the regime's recovery was faster than expected. The Revolutionary Guards regained control through a ruthless wave of arrests, intense information filtering, and an influx of funds that sustains tens of thousands of people, including many who are not necessarily regime supporters but are economically dependent on it. The recent round of negotiations, led by Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, was doomed from the start. It highlighted the gap between a Western rational, interest- and utility-based approach, and a jihadist ideological vision based on a dream that culminates in destroying the Zionist entity and imposing Sharia law on the West. It is important to remember that regime change does not happen in headlines, but between the lines. Open external threats that unite Iranians around their leadership are counterproductive. Real regime overthrow must be conducted covertly: collaboration with opposition elements, support for subversive information networks, and funneling resources into centers of internal unrest. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-07-01 00:00:00
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