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Iran to Lay the Groundwork for a Long War of Attrition with Israel

(Foreign Affairs) Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar - Israel's June 13 assault on Iran is one of the worst setbacks the Islamic Republic has ever experienced. Iran's national security strategy remains broadly unchanged. The Islamic Republic may be weaker in some ways, but its leaders are proud of having withstood the Israeli and American assaults. They see the substantial damage they inflicted on Israel's cities as a major achievement. And they continue to believe that demonstrating resolve in the face of aggression is the only way to deter their opponents. Iranian leaders will thus set out to rebuild the country's network of proxies: the axis of resistance. They will trust diplomacy even less than before. Instead, they will lay the groundwork for a long war of attrition with Israel - and a potential nuclear breakout. The Iranian government is likely to use the ceasefire respite to accelerate its militarization in preparation for sustained conflict, channeling resources into the IRGC and other armed forces and security agencies. But it will struggle to prove that it can handle another war, especially given the extent to which its ranks have been penetrated by Israeli intelligence operatives. Critics have accused the regime of prioritizing ideological loyalty over competence, allowing individuals who simply mouthed hardline slogans to rise through the ranks while concealing their true allegiances. There have been calls for investigations, accountability, and even the resignation of senior officials accused of overseeing the catastrophic intelligence failure. While some commentators see Iran's aggressive Middle East strategy as a failure, given the collapse of Hizbullah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, and Hamas in Gaza - plus the damage to Iran's own military - the IRGC sees the situation differently. Its leaders believe the country's forward defense strategy has been vindicated. This approach successfully deterred Israel and the U.S. from attacking for years and bought Tehran critical time to build up the industrial infrastructure, technical expertise, and institutional resilience it can now use to rapidly rebuild its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The writer is Associate Professor of International Affairs at Texas A&M University.
2025-07-08 00:00:00
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