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Choices and Strategies for Dealing with Iran

[Washington Institute for Near East Policy] Dennis Ross - On April 24, 2008, Ambassador Dennis Ross testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee: The Iranians probably will solve the technological problems that have limited their ability to operate their centrifuges on a non-stop basis within a year's time. And, once they have done so, they will be able to enrich uranium and stockpile fissionable material. This tells us that our current policies are not going to prevent Iran from acquiring the capacity either to assemble nuclear weapons or build a break-out capability. Arab and Israeli leaders with whom I have spoken fear that should Iran have nuclear arms, it will transform the landscape of the region. Iranian leaders will feel emboldened to use terror and terror groups to threaten or subvert others in the area, including particularly those who might be inclined to pursue peace with Israel, knowing that their nukes provide an umbrella of protection or a built-in deterrent against responses. Tell the Israelis that Iran will act rationally, knowing that Israel can retaliate if Iran ever used nuclear or dirty bombs against Israel, and they are not reassured. Even former Iranian President Rafsanjani, who is seen as more pragmatic than Ahmadinejad, has said that Iran could absorb many nuclear bombs and survive, while Israel, given its small size, could not survive even one. Israelis also question whether that segment of the Iranian leadership (which believes in the apocalyptic return of the "Hidden Imam") can actually be deterred - and believe that they cannot run the risk of trying to find out.
2008-04-29 01:00:00
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