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Lessons from Recent Russian Moves in the Caucasus

[Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies-Shalem Center] Ehud Ya'ari - Beyond the Caucasus, Russia will try to conduct itself as a global power, even if it does not possess the requisite force. The return of the Black Sea fleet to the Mediterranean Sea and the supply of advanced military hardware to Iran and Syria reflect the Kremlin's desire to project influence beyond the "near abroad." It announces, to those Arab players that show an interest, that Russia is willing to assist them in repelling American pressure. No wonder, then, that Hamas and Syria cheered the invasion of Georgia. According to the doctrine articulated by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in March 2007, if the Muslim countries of the Middle East don't meddle in the Caucasus, then (but only then) Russia will be willing to forge a partnership with those countries, at the expense of their relations with the West. As for Israel, the message from Moscow is that it must treat Russia and its intentions with due consideration. Israel would do well to show caution in its dealings with Russia's near neighbors, especially when it comes to military ties. The writer is a senior fellow at the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem.
2008-09-29 01:00:00
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