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In-Depth Issues:
IRGC Opposes Negotiations with U.S. - Danny Zaken ( Israel Hayom)
Contacts between Iran and the U.S. are intensifying, Israel Hayom has learned.
In Washington, officials believe that Iran's economic and military distress will push Tehran to accept the 15-point American proposal within a matter of weeks.
Negotiations are currently being conducted by a handful of senior Iranian leaders still in place, alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The main obstacle remains the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The U.S. has demanded guarantees that the entire leadership, including the Guards, accept the terms.
At this stage, the Iranians have been unable to provide such guarantees because of the fierce opposition of Mohammad Vahidi, the Guards' current commander, to the very existence of negotiations.
In the United Arab Emirates, Iranian financial assets have been frozen, with the intention of using them as compensation for the damage caused by Iranian attacks.
IDF: All Critical and Essential Targets within Iran to Be Destroyed by Wednesday - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post)
All of the IDF's "critical" and "essential" pre-war Iran targets - the top two most important categories - will have been destroyed by Wednesday, the IDF said on Tuesday.
"Critical" targets were those that immediately threatened Israel, such as the ballistic missile industry, as well as the small remaining nuclear-related targets.
"Essential" targets were a level down and represented the wider Iranian military-industrial complex, which was viewed as essential to maintaining Iran's various military and weapons apparatuses at an effective level of operation.
Examples include satellite launching and satellite attacking platforms and research which are crucial for firing long-range weapons and for contending with Israel's strategic advantage in the satellite sphere.
Israel Aiding U.S. with Intelligence on Strait of Hormuz - Elisha Ben Kimon ( Ynet News)
Israel is helping the U.S. manage the Strait of Hormuz crisis through intelligence, a senior Israeli security official said Monday.
The official said Israeli strikes on Iranian steel plants earlier this week had caused damage worth billions of dollars and had become a major preoccupation for Tehran.
He said Israel was "very close" to achieving the objectives it had set for itself in Iran.
On Lebanon, the official said Israel saw a rare opportunity to bring about Hizbullah's disarmament and would not end its campaign there until the safety of residents in northern Israel was assured.
He said even if the Iran operation ends, the campaign in Lebanon would continue until its goals are achieved.
Poll: 3/4 of Americans Want U.S. to Stop Iran from Obtaining a Nuclear Weapon ( Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll)
The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll of March 25-26, 2026, found that 74% believe it is in the U.S. interest to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
76% say the U.S. is winning in the war with Iran, including 66% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents.
64% say Iran was cheating on its nuclear deal, and 62% view Iran as a national security threat to the U.S.
73% say they support Israel over Hamas, including 65% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents. Yet in the 18-24 age group, 53% support Hamas.
How U.S. and Israel Destroyed Iranian Warships in Secret Mission - Gabrielle Weiniger ( The Times-UK)
The U.S. and Israeli military destroyed five Iranian warships that were disguised as container vessels in a secret operation aimed at thwarting the regime's plans to devastate commercial shipping routes.
All five ships were either sunk or destroyed over the past month, according to U.S. and Israeli senior commanders.
Israel Improves Interception of Drones from Lebanon - Sami Peretz ( Ha'aretz)
In the current war, Israel has improved its interception of drones launched from Lebanon, with a success rate of over 90%, defense officials say.
Part of the improvement comes from Israel's pushing Hizbullah out of southern Lebanon, which means there are no short-range launches into Israel, giving IDF air defense more time to react.
Moreover, intelligence on drone launches now comes from Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz - Alexander Ward
President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran's navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority, they said.
Trump and his team say the strait matters far more to countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia than to the U.S., insisting it is not vital to America's energy needs. In 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquid natural gas shipped through the strait was bound for Asian markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday, "The market is well-supplied, and we are seeing more and more ships go through on a daily basis as individual countries cut deals with the Iranian regime for the time being. But over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort." This month, nearly 40 countries - including the UK, France and Canada - pledged "our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait." (Wall Street Journal)
- Rubio Says Iran "Needs to Stop Building Weapons that Can Threaten Their Neighbors"
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera in an interview on Monday, "The people of Iran are incredible people, very resourceful, very entrepreneurial. But it's their regime that's been a problem. And instead, they've chosen to spend the wealth of their country to support Hizbullah and Hamas and Shiite militias inside of Iraq, and to try to destabilize Syria when [President Assad] was there."
Rubio called on Iran to end its nuclear program and to curtail its drone and missile program.
He accused Iran of seeking nuclear weapons to "threaten and blackmail the world." "I think the best way to stability, given the people who are in charge in Iran, is to destroy the ability of Iran in the future to launch these missiles and these drones against...infrastructure and civilian populations."
"This is an Iran that's weaker than it's been in 10 years. Imagine five years from now, or three from now, when they had more missiles, more drones, what they would have been willing to do to their neighbors and to us - that was intolerable. That's why this needed to be done now." Iran needs "to stop sponsoring terrorism, and they need to stop building weapons that can threaten their neighbors." The "short-range missiles that they're launching, they only have one purpose, and that is to attack Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar and Kuwait and Bahrain."
Rubio rejected Iran's demand that it must maintain "sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz as part of any agreement to end the war. "The Strait of Hormuz will be open when this operation is over...one way or another. It will be open because Iran agrees to abide by international law and not block the commercial waterway, or a coalition of nations around the world and the region, with the participation of the United States, will make sure that it's open." (Al Jazeera)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- 4 IDF Soldiers Killed in Southern Lebanon
Capt. Noam Madmoni, 22; Staff Sgt. Ben Cohen, 21; Staff Sgt. Maxsim Entis, 21; and Staff Sgt. Gilad Harel, 21, were killed during close-range combat in southern Lebanon on Monday, the IDF announced Tuesday. Two other soldiers were wounded. (Ynet News)
- IDF Kills Dozens of Hizbullah Terrorists in Southern Lebanon - Shir Peretz
The IDF located and killed dozens of Hizbullah terrorists operating in southern Lebanon over the past 24 hours, the military confirmed on Tuesday. Hizbullah continued to launch waves of drones and rockets at Israeli territory, with northern residents spending most of the night in their safe rooms and bomb shelters because of the consistent fire. (Jerusalem Post)
- Netanyahu: Iran Is "Pursuing Nuclear Weapons and the Means to Deliver Them to American Cities"
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered a confident assessment of the joint U.S.-Israel campaign in Iran in an interview with Newsmax on Monday. "We've already degraded their missile capabilities, destroyed factories, and eliminated key nuclear scientists....They are pursuing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to American cities. That's what this war is about - preventing that outcome."
Netanyahu said Iran's attempted missile strike near Diego Garcia, 4,000 km. from Iran, "puts much of Europe within range." Netanyahu warned that Western leaders have long underestimated Iran's nuclear and missile programs, contributing to the current situation. "The question is whether the West will wake up," he said.
"This is not just Israel's problem," he said, adding that the goal remains to ensure Iran cannot threaten Israel, the U.S. or their allies with nuclear weapons. "We're making steady progress." (Ynet News)
- Defense Minister Katz: Israel Will Control Southern Lebanon up to the Litani, Border Villages Will Be Leveled
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Tuesday that "at the end of the operation [in Lebanon], the IDF will be positioned in a security area inside Lebanon...and will have security control over the entire area up to the Litani [River]." He said the return of 600,000 displaced residents of southern Lebanon to areas south of the Litani would be "completely prohibited" until Israel determines that northern Israeli communities are safe. He added that houses in Lebanese villages near the border would be demolished "in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanoun models in Gaza" in order to eliminate threats near the border.
Katz said Israeli forces are continuing ground operations in Lebanese villages. "The maneuvering forces are entering the villages with great force...clearing them of Hizbullah terrorists and destroying the terrorist infrastructures established there."
"We are determined to separate Lebanon from the Iranian arena...and to uproot the snake's teeth and remove Hizbullah's threat capability," Katz said. "We promised to protect the communities of the north, and that is exactly what we will do." (i24News)
- Israel Shifts to Hitting Iran's Economy - Emanuel Fabian
A month into the war with Iran, the Israeli military has now been ordered to shift to hitting economic targets of the Iranian regime, the Times of Israel learned on Monday. The Israel Air Force has conducted hundreds of waves of strikes in Iran, dropping over 13,000 bombs on Iranian regime and military sites.
Israel's defense establishment is now in the "completion phase" of the goals it set. It believes it has largely achieved its objectives of degrading Iran's military capabilities and "creating the conditions" for the Iranian regime to fall. (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Iran War
- Israel Seeks to Target Iran's Critical Infrastructure, Continues Moving North Against Hizbullah in Lebanon - Ron Ben-Yishai
The official American position, as reflected in statements from the Pentagon and the White House, opposes Israeli strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure. Washington is concerned that the Iranians will respond with barrages against oil facilities across the Gulf. However, Jerusalem believes that unless Iran's critical infrastructure is dealt a heavy blow, both the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian government will continue the hardline, defiant course they are now pursuing, both in negotiations with the U.S. and in missile and drone launches toward Israel and the Gulf states.
It appears that President Trump is trying to bring the fighting to an end through diplomacy, but without giving up his main goals. If the war does not end soon through negotiations, the Pentagon is preparing a broad range of options, including special operations that would give the president the PR victory he is looking for, after which he could forgo a diplomatic agreement with the Iranians.
Trump still has not decided which course of action he will choose.
In Lebanon, there is not the slightest sign that Hizbullah is prepared to disarm, and there is no actor inside Lebanon capable of enforcing such a move, including the Lebanese government. Hizbullah is demonstrating that it, together with its Iranian patrons, remains the decisive force on Lebanese sovereign territory. That is evident in the case of the Iranian ambassador, whom the Lebanese government expelled but who has remained under Hizbullah's protection.
The IDF is operating 12 brigade combat teams inside Lebanon, up to roughly the Litani River. These forces are drawing much of Hizbullah's fire onto themselves, thereby reducing the physical damage to Israel's north.
They are also providing active defense that keeps Hizbullah cells from infiltrating frontline communities and has nearly eliminated direct anti-tank missile fire and sniper attacks on fence-line towns in the Galilee.
The security zone up to the Litani is not meant to be a second version of the "security zone" from which the IDF withdrew in May 2000. There will be no Shiite communities in this sector, only a handful of Christian villages. There will be no South Lebanon Army, and Israeli forces will not sit in fixed outposts exposed to shelling and Hizbullah raids. Instead, the military intends to conduct a mobile defense based on advanced technological intelligence-gathering, minimizing Hizbullah's ability to strike our forces from a distance or raid them. This security zone is now taking shape.
(Ynet News)
- Chaos in Iranian Leadership Complicates Negotiations with U.S. - Julian Barnes
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has fractured the Iranian government, complicating its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger retaliatory attacks, according to officials familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence assessments.
Several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed since the war began four weeks ago. Those who survive have had difficulty communicating, fearing that their calls and messages are being intercepted by Israeli intelligence, and are unable to meet in person. Moreover, American officials say hard-liners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have become more influential in Iran, exerting more power.
Former American officials say Iran will make a deal when it suffers enough economic pain from the war. While the damage has been severe, Iran may not yet feel as though it is losing. (New York Times)
- Iran's Regime Says: Lebanon Is Ours - Editorial
The deadline for the Iranian ambassador to leave Lebanon was Sunday. Beirut declared Mohammad Reza Shibani persona non grata, but he's still there, at his embassy. On Monday Iran's Foreign Ministry said he won't be leaving Lebanon, and the message is clear: Neither will Iran.
The Iranian regime is so used to ordering around the Lebanese in their own country, why should it begin respecting Lebanese sovereignty now? Iran's regime came to Beirut in the 1980s to kill hundreds of Americans. Later it took over southern Lebanon and used it to drag the whole country into a needless conflict with Israel punctuated by two devastating wars, and now a third. Tehran accomplished these feats via Hizbullah, a Shiite militia devoted to Iran's Supreme Leader.
This war, which Hizbullah began by firing at Israel on March 2, is waged for Iran's regime. Lebanon has no interest in it. But the shots are called in Tehran, which needs Israel preoccupied with a second war front. Revolutionary Guard commanders are now conducting a war from Lebanese territory.
(Wall Street Journal)
Observations:
- The centers of gravity on both sides of the Iran war are holding up under military pressure: Iran's command and control, its domination of a still-cowed population, ability to block shipments out of the Gulf, and its missile and drone stocks; the U.S., Israel, and Arab states' internal cohesion, weapons stocks, and despite considerable oil and gas price increases.
- Neither side is displaying a decisive collapse of will, with Gulf Arab states so far demonstrating both resilience and defiance of Iran. There will not be a collapse of will by the Israeli government and population. For Israel, this conflict, correctly, is existential and the costs so far are easily bearable. Under such conditions, the conflict likely will shift to negotiations with or without a ceasefire.
- Iran is a cause more than a state, although it presents as both. Its attacks on civilian targets in neighboring states seeking to remain neutral, and targeting of international oil supplies, have revealed the regime's nature. The region will never be really at peace unless either the very nature of the regime changes into that of a normal state, or it is stripped of all capability, in perpetuity, to project power through nuclear weapons, drones and missiles, terrorists and proxies.
- Iran is able to prioritize its ideological mission of regional domination and religious orthodoxy over its own population, economy, and even military losses in a way most normal modern states cannot. It's hard to break the iron will of ideological states at almost any pain level.
- Israel's extraordinary military success both offensive and defensive, the Israeli people's resilience, and its intelligence capabilities in this conflict give it dramatic dominance in the region, building on its previous success with the help of others decimating the Iranian proxy network. But it does not have the strategically mobile ground forces to decisively defeat Iran or other distant foes.
- Iran's current strategy is simply to keep shooting with whatever is left of its not inexhaustible but very large weapons stocks until the pain on Gulf states and the American public, diminishing American and regional partners' own weapons stocks, and events elsewhere force the U.S. and Israel to end operations, with or without a face-saving formal understanding with Iran.
The writer served as U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Deputy National Security Advisor, and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey.
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