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In-Depth Issues:
Iran Warns U.S. Attack Would Trigger Strikes on Israel ( France 24)
Iran's parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned Sunday that U.S. military bases and Israel would be "legitimate targets" if America strikes the Islamic Republic in support of Iranian protesters.
"In the event of an attack on Iran, both the occupied territory [Israel] and all American military centers, bases and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets."
At the parliamentary session, lawmakers rushed the dais, shouting: "Death to America."
On Saturday, Iran's attorney general, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, warned on Iranian state television that anyone taking part in protests will be considered an "enemy of God," a death-penalty charge.
Israeli Experts See Current Unrest in Iran Posing a Serious Threat to Regime Stability - Itamar Eichner ( Ynet News)
Israeli experts on Iranian affairs say the current wave of unrest is exceptional in its scale, geographic spread, and the degree to which fear of authorities has been overcome.
A senior Israeli official said he had never seen such widespread and determined calls for the return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, coming not only from major cities, including religious strongholds like Mashhad and Qom, but also from smaller towns.
Sunni Uprising Erupts in Iran - Amine Ayoub ( Ynet News)
A powerful new coalition called the "Mobarizoun Popular Front" (MPF) has declared open support for a rebellion in the Sunni-majority province of Sistan and Baluchistan in southeastern Iran.
The MPF brings together several Baloch organizations, including the veteran militant group Jaish al-Adl.
Sistan and Baluchistan is the most neglected corner of Iran, ranking at the bottom in every measure of poverty, health and employment.
The writer, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.
Will Internal Doubt by Regime Supporters Shift the Balance in Iran? - Dr. Raz Zimmt ( Ynet News)
Authoritarian systems often fall not when opposition peaks, but when those tasked with defending the system lose the will to act.
Israeli historian Uriya Shavit has noted that regimes collapse when their supporters and guardians conclude that the cost of enforcing obedience exceeds the cost of disobedience.
The willingness of young, ideologically motivated supporters to serve and fight underpins the effectiveness of Iran's security forces.
If identification with the system weakens, motivation to defend it could erode, as occurred in Syria when parts of the army ceased fighting for Assad.
The writer, a veteran Iran watcher in the IDF, is Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
U.S. Strikes ISIS Targets in Syria ( CENTCOM)
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, alongside partner forces, conducted large-scale strikes against multiple ISIS targets across Syria on Saturday.
Why Would We Trust Turkey with F-35 Jets? - Michael Rubin ( Wall Street Journal)
An F-35 sale to Turkey would erode Israel's qualitative military edge.
The problem wouldn't only be the initial sale but the likelihood Ankara would reverse-engineer the aircraft to bolster its military industry.
Turkey's drone production - and global exports - started with imports.
For the past decade, President Erdogan has asserted broad maritime claims across the Black Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
This has led to more frequent clashes with Greece and Cyprus over exclusive economic zones and continental shelf boundaries.
As Israel, Greece and Cyprus broaden their defense alliance to resist Turkish bullying, any Turkish aggression could spark a broader conflict.
Providing Ankara with F-35s under such circumstances would throw fuel on the fire.
In September 2011, when a U.S. oil company contracted with Cyprus to explore its waters for gas, Egemen Bagis, then Turkey's minister for EU Affairs, warned that Turkey might use its military against the Americans.
"This is what we have the navy for. We have trained our marines for this," he said at the time.
In 1974 President Nixon sold F-14 jets to Iran. Five years later, the Islamic Revolution transformed the country from ally to adversary.
Rewarding Turkey with F-35s could be a mistake that undermines U.S. interests and security for decades to come.
The writer, Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum, is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
The Arabs' Anti-Colonial Delusion - Hannes Stein ( Quillette-Australia)
Encouraged by anti-colonial fights all over the world - by the successes of the Vietnamese communists, the Algerian nationalists, and so on - the Arab fighters against Zionism expected an easy victory.
Arab propaganda is full of this expectation: Israelis are decadent, they are weak, Israel is "like a spider's web," one strong wind and it will be gone.
As soon as the colonial enterprise becomes too costly, the colonizer packs his bags and shuffles off. He has a home to go to.
But the Israelis do not have another home to go to. And this is the crux of the matter. The fanatics among the Arabs still believe they are fighting a colonial war. But they are not.
They are fighting against a desperate minority which has nowhere else to go. This is the reason why every war of annihilation the Arabs wage against Israel so far has ended in catastrophe for the attacker.
They are not triggering the flight reflex of colonizers; they trigger the reflex to fight and defend one's life at all costs.
As they are dealing with Jews, the Arab fanatics are also unleashing furies that stem from fears deep within the Jewish soul.
The precondition for peace is that the Arabs give up their anti-colonial delusion.
The intruder who has settled in their home is not a stranger: he has lived in this house before. And the other places where he once stayed have all gone up in flames.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- More than 200 Dead in Tehran as Regime Opens Fire on Protesters - Roxana Saberi
As protests against Iran's government swelled significantly in size on Thursday night, the regime responded in many places by opening fire. A Tehran doctor told TIME that six hospitals in the capital had recorded at least 217 protester deaths, "most by live ammunition." The crackdown was presaged by the regime's near-total shutdown of the Internet and phone connections. The demonstrations now span all 31 provinces.
A riot-police officer in a Kurdish city in northwest Iran told TIME on Wednesday that "there is 100% confusion" within the riot police. "There is chaos everywhere, in the city, in homes, in the streets and within the police forces, too. I know all the officers in my station, and they believe the regime is collapsing."
The biggest wild card is the security apparatus itself. While observers saw few significant signs of defection at the leadership level, they said every round of protests sees more rank-and-file police and members of the Basij (a volunteer militia of regime loyalists) refusing to take part in a crackdown.
(TIME)
See also "Massacre" Feared in Iran as Security Forces Seek to Crush Protests - Yeganeh Torbati (Washington Post)
- Netanyahu: In Defending Itself, Israel Is Defending Western Civilization
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister with over 18 years in office, told The Economist in an interview on Jan. 8: "Very fanatic forces...want to take us back to the early Middle Ages and do so with a violence that is unimaginable. You've seen these pictures of people cutting open the chest of an enemy, these Islamists, tearing out the heart." The reality is that "Israel is defending itself, but in so doing, we're defending Western civilization."
Netanyahu revealed that he is not seeking the full renewal of the ten-year American military assistance package, which currently stands at $3.8 billion annually and needs renegotiating in 2028. He talked about tapering American aid to zero over ten years.
As for Arab leaders, he predicts an expansion of the Abraham Accords. "In private conversations, you want the truth? I mean beyond the regular things? Many of them don't give a hoot. They don't care about the Palestinian issue. They care about its effect on the street." (Economist-UK)
- Israel and Hamas Prepare for Renewed Fighting in Gaza - Dov Lieber
Israel and Hamas are preparing for renewed fighting as Hamas is refusing to disarm. Israel's military has drawn up plans for a new ground operation inside Hamas-controlled territory in Gaza. Hamas is focusing on rebuilding military capabilities lost during the war.
Arab and Israeli officials said Hamas has received a new influx of cash to help pay salaries to its fighters. An Israeli official said that if Hamas doesn't willingly give up its weapons, Israel would force it to do so. Meanwhile, Israel is willing to give time for the U.S. plan to move forward.
Fighting Hamas now would be easier for Israel because it doesn't have to worry about putting the hostages at risk, said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Erez Winner. "It will be much faster and easier than people want to believe," he said. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Israel Planning New Gaza City Operation in March - Jacob Magid (Times of Israel)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Current Iran Protests May Lead to Real Change - Danny Zaken
On at least three occasions, President Trump has issued warnings to the Iranian regime over its repression of the protests, and over the weekend he said, "Iran is in big trouble. It looks like the protesters are taking over several cities, which did not seem likely a few weeks ago. If they kill protesters, we will hit them very hard. That does not mean boots on the ground." Protesters are already being killed in Iran, and the world is waiting to see whether the president's threats will be carried out.
Security officials say Israel is closely following developments but has no offensive intentions. However, among Israeli intelligence and assessment officials, the belief is growing that the current protests will lead to real change in Iran - even if not necessarily the fall of the regime, at least a substantial weakening.
It is expected that the regime will fight for its survival through an escalating use of live fire against protesters. But that weapon is far less effective than in the past. A key reason is the broad range of sectors participating in the protests and the effective organization of the demonstrations, both in Tehran and especially in the periphery, in minority regions led by Kurds, Baluchis and others. (Israel Hayom)
- IDF Operates Against Hamas in Gaza, Hizbullah in Lebanon following Ceasefire Violations - Tzvi Jasper
The IDF on Friday announced strikes against Hizbullah targets in Lebanon "in response to Hizbullah's continued violations of the ceasefire understandings." The IDF also struck several Hamas sites in Gaza on Thursday night in response to a failed rocket launch from Gaza City toward Israel earlier Thursday.
(Jerusalem Post)
- Huckabee: Israel Will Coordinate with U.S., but Make Its Own Decision on Renewed Iran Airstrikes - Lara Sukster Mosheyof
Israel will make its own decision whether or not to renew airstrikes on Iran, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee told Israel's Channel 11 on Thursday. "I think this is something that was certainly part of the discussions between Trump and Netanyahu, and they will act in coordination, through dialogue and consultation with one another," he said.
"What the United States will do, and what Israel will do, will be decisions that each nation makes independently, and they will be made for the benefit of each one's interests."
(Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- The Defiance of Iranian Protesters Seems Different This Time - Ali Deldar
This time, the defiance of the government appears to be qualitatively different. The protests are growing and have spread across the country, no longer confined to major cities. The slogans have shifted: calling for the end of the regime itself. What makes this moment different is a chain of events that culminated in a widespread loss of confidence following the 12-day war with Israel.
Reza, an investment advisor in Tehran, describes the weeks after the June 2025 war, when the Tehran stock market experienced an unprecedented capital outflow by individual investors. "How can you trust a country that has no control over its airspace, after years of boasting about its military and intelligence strength?" Reza asks.
He says the war panic intensified with fears of snapback sanctions. The war was followed by a prolonged period of anxiety over the possibility of renewed conflict, alongside worsening shortages of water and electricity. Industries faced rationing of power, gas, and water.
The writer previously worked as a journalist at the BBC and as a reporter in Iran.
(Ha'aretz)
- The Crisis of the Islamic Republic of Iran - Zineb Riboua
The widening popular uprising taking shape across Iran unfolds as Iran's core pillars - its economic viability, coercive capacity, and external deterrence - fail simultaneously, creating a systemic crisis the regime has never faced and may not survive.
Reports that the government planned to raise taxes starting on March 21 immediately fueled public anger because the increase is widely understood to finance expanding allocations to military, security, and religious institutions, including a 24% increase for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The public no longer trusts the state to manage revenue competently or distribute it equitably.
Tehran continues to allocate substantial resources to regional clients and proxy forces, often at the expense of domestic investment. The public widely understands this trade-off. Protest slogans rejecting foreign entanglements reflect a growing recognition that national resources are being allocated to regional influence while living standards inside Iran steadily deteriorate.
This is a regime that cannot admit error. The Islamic Republic is built on an ideological claim that the supreme leader and the clerical system guiding him are not merely in charge, but fundamentally right. In this worldview, failure is never the result of the regime's bad decisions. It is blamed on enemies, sabotage, or insufficient loyalty. That mindset makes correction almost impossible.
Failure is deferred rather than corrected, allowing stress to accumulate until it spills into the streets.
This is why, unlike during previous protest waves, Khamenei now faces choices with no stable exit. Sustaining control under these conditions requires exhausting what remains of the state's economic and coercive capacity. The regime may survive this phase, but only by accelerating a longer-term collapse. It is, indeed, the beginning of the end.
The writer is research fellow and program manager at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute. (National Interest)
Hizbullah
- Israel Dismisses Lebanese Army Claim that Hizbullah Has Been Disarmed South of the Litani - Itamar Eichner
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has claimed that it has succeeded in disarming Hizbullah south of the Litani River. However, an Israeli official warned Thursday that Hizbullah is actively rearming and rebuilding its capabilities with Iranian support. "Suitcases of cash are moving from Tehran to Hizbullah through Turkey," he said. "Lebanon is not preventing the entry of Iranian Quds Force operatives into its territory. Some are operating under diplomatic cover, as we've seen in the past."
While Hizbullah continues to maintain a large fighting force, the official said the current Israeli strategy is to intensify its "mowing the grass" policy - referring to sustained, limited strikes aimed at degrading Hizbullah's capabilities without triggering full-scale war.
He added that Prime Minister Netanyahu left his recent summit with President Trump with the understanding that the U.S. would support any Israeli decision on Lebanon. Both Jerusalem and Washington share the view that the Lebanese government is too weak to disarm Hizbullah on its own.
The Prime Minister's Office on Thursday called the steps taken so far by Lebanon an "encouraging beginning," but warned they fall far short of meeting the terms of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement, which "states clearly, Hizbullah must be fully disarmed."
The Israel Foreign Ministry added that "extensive Hizbullah military infrastructure still exists south of the Litani River. The goal of disarming Hizbullah in southern Lebanon remains far from being achieved.... Hizbullah is rearming faster than it is being disarmed. Furthermore, it is regrettable that there are instances of cooperation between elements within the LAF and Hizbullah."
Officials noted that the Lebanese army has avoided areas considered central to Hizbullah's operations - urban centers and its network of underground tunnels. South of the Litani, Hizbullah continues to maintain weapons depots, mortars and short-range rockets. Hizbullah continues to operate from extensive underground facilities. The IDF says the Lebanese army has not entered or dismantled most of these heavily armed and fortified sites, which remain active.
(Ynet News)
Egypt
- Egypt Is Revising Its Peace Agreement with Israel - Khaled Hassan
A well-connected Egyptian source has confirmed that Cairo is actively pursuing a de facto revised peace agreement with Israel. Egypt views Israel's military "occupation" of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border during the Gaza war as an illegitimate expansion of Israel's borders and a unilateral rupture of the 1979 Camp David Accords. Cairo perceives the indefinite Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, a buffer zone along its border, as a blatant violation of the borders as defined in Article II.
Based on my source, Cairo is now shaping a new, de facto framework for relations, built on the following non-negotiable conditions: Egypt will not dismantle its increased military build-up in Sinai, which it sees as a necessary deterrent to prevent the displacement of Gazans into Egyptian territory. Cairo will demand Jerusalem accept this new security reality as a consequence of its own unilateral action in border areas.
A return to summit-level diplomacy, such as the Sisi-Netanyahu 2017 meeting, is now explicitly conditioned on a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a credible commitment to Palestinian self-determination.
Security coordination and trade, like the gas deal, will continue but Cairo insists these cannot be used by Israel as levers to extract geopolitical concessions.
Cairo has made its demands in Gaza a central, inescapable concern for Washington. It is evidenced by Egypt's calculated diplomatic defiance, including President Sisi's refusal to visit the White House, making him the only leader of a major Arab country yet to visit the U.S.
The writer is an Egyptian-British national security and foreign policy expert. (Jewish Chronicle-UK)
The Arab World
- The Ideological Roots of Holocaust Denial in Arab Societies - Dalia Ziada
Growing up in Cairo, nearly every middle-class home had two main books on its shelves: the Quran and the Arabic edition of Hitler's Mein Kampf (My Struggle). These well-educated professionals, including government officials, as well as knowledgeable secular journalists, writers, and intellectuals, were indoctrinated with the belief that Israel and the Jewish people are responsible for their domestic political and economic troubles.
Although classical Islamic societies were discriminatory toward the Jews, they were not driven by extermination or conspiracy theories. Jews existed as a "protected" yet unequal community. What fundamentally changed this dynamic was the encounter with modern European antisemitism in the 20th century.
Nazi Germany heavily invested in Arabic-language propaganda aimed at the Middle East, utilizing radio broadcasts, print media, and political alliances to embed antisemitic narratives. These ideas persisted after Germany's defeat and were absorbed into postwar Arab political culture.
Zionism was recast, not as a nationalist movement rooted in Jewish history, but as a global conspiracy. Jews were portrayed as all-powerful actors capable of instigating wars, financial crises, and political upheavals across continents. This narrative was reinforced through state-controlled education systems, media outlets, cultural events, and mosques. In Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, popular TV shows and movies depicted Jews as greedy, treacherous, and morally corrupt.
The Muslim Brotherhood and later jihadist organizations redefined antisemitism in religious terms. Jews were seen as an "eternal" ideological enemy, transforming antisemitism into a moral duty. In this context, normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel became seen as betrayal and Muslim coexistence with Jews was considered blasphemy.
Arab Holocaust denial logically stems from this worldview. If Jews are viewed as inherently deceitful and excessively powerful, then Jewish testimony cannot be trusted and Jewish victimhood must be fabricated or exaggerated. After the deadly massacre of Jews on Oct. 7, with lots of evidence provided by the perpetrators themselves, denial and justification spread quickly through Arabic-language media and social platforms. Atrocities were dismissed as fabrication, relativized as resistance, or erased altogether.
The writer, an Egyptian scholar, is a Senior Fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Report)
Other Issues
- Why Jews Mourn Jewish Strangers - Barry Finestone
When a Jewish person is killed thousands of miles away, Jews around the world often feel it as a personal loss. Not symbolically. Not intellectually. Personally. After the recent mass killing in Bondi, Jewish communities across continents gathered and mourned. Most of them have never been to Australia and did not know the victims.
This reaction often puzzles people outside the Jewish community. Why would the death of a stranger feel so immediate? The answer reveals something fundamental about how Jews understand belonging, memory, and responsibility. Jews are very few. Roughly 15 million worldwide, less than two-tenths of one percent of the global population.
When a people is that small, distance collapses. A stranger is never entirely a stranger. Someone knew their family, or prayed in the same language, or shares a lineage. It is what happens when you belong to a tiny people whose survival has never been guaranteed. But plenty of small groups do not react this way. The Jewish reaction is shaped by something more enduring. Jews carry history differently.
For most peoples, violence against their group is episodic. For Jews, it is cumulative. Pogroms, expulsions, forced conversions, massacres, and the Holocaust are read as a long, unfinished sentence. It means that the past is present tense. Jewish memory is not nostalgia. It is vigilance. It is pattern recognition shaped by centuries of experience.
Moreover, Jews have a moral architecture that centers an ancient teaching that all Jews are responsible for one another. This is not just a saying. It is a demand. Historically, Jewish communities survived because they treated that responsibility as non-negotiable. Jewish life persisted through mutual accountability.
Jewish identity is not just a religion you practice. It is a story you inherit and a future you feel obligated to protect. When tragedy strikes, it does not feel like news. It feels like something has happened to the family.
The writer is President and CEO of the Jim Joseph Foundation, supporting Jewish education in the U.S. (Times of Israel)
Observations:
- Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Congregation Ahavath Sholom in Fort Worth, Texas:
"The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan made peace with Israel without conditions."
- "They didn't say divide Jerusalem. They didn't say give up the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, the settlements. No. They made peace. Why? Because they're promoting an Islam that says [we can live] side-by-side with Western civilization instead of defeating Western civilization."
- He told the Jerusalem Post in an interview: "Our introduction to Judaism is an instruction to Abraham. 'Leave your father's home, your birthplace, and go to the land which I will show you.' You can't change history. That's how Jewish history begins, with Zionism, connecting the people and the land. We don't occupy anybody else's land. We're indigenous to the Land of Israel. We don't need to apologize for being who we are: the Land of Israel and the people of Israel."
- He said the Israel-Hamas war "isn't a border dispute....It tore the mask off the notion that all we have to do is give up a few km. here, give up a few km. there, divide Jerusalem....That's not the issue. They're talking about destroying the State of Israel."
- Leiter hit out against those who accuse Israel of genocide in Gaza. "If we committed what we're being accused of doing, my son, my friends' sons, would be alive today. We didn't bomb population centers from the air. We went in on foot to weed out the terrorists."
- Maj. (res.) Moshe Leiter was killed in action alongside three other reservists in Beit Hanun. When he found the entrance to a Hamas tunnel he announced it on the radio, but then terrorists underground blew up the tunnel. "Had we just bombed that area because we knew that there was a tunnel there, they could be alive."
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