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In-Depth Issues:
Trump: 100 Million Barrels of Oil, 200 Ships Have Crossed Strait of Hormuz - Luis Martinez ( ABC News)
President Trump posted Wednesday: "Last month, I directed our great U.S. military to execute a secret mission to support oil tankers and other commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz."
"This effort has resulted in more than 100 million barrels of oil making its way through the Strait, and into the open market. More than 200 commercial ships have safely traveled through the Strait."
"This wildly successful effort is because the United States of America controls the Strait of Hormuz - not Iran."
Iran's Execution Machine Is Running at Full Speed - Struan Stevenson ( RealClear World)
While global attention remains fixed on war and negotiations, the Iranian regime has launched one of its most extensive campaigns of political executions and repression in recent memory.
Young protesters, political activists, students and opposition supporters are being sent to the gallows while much of the democratic world remains distracted.
775 have been hanged since the beginning of the year. Dozens more remain under sentence of death.
A clear message must reach Tehran. Western governments should close Iranian embassies and expel regime diplomats who serve as instruments of influence and intelligence gathering.
Economic sanctions should be expanded and rigorously enforced. Every official responsible for executions, torture and crimes against humanity should face targeted measures and international accountability.
The Iranian people deserve more than expressions of concern. They deserve active solidarity.
The world can continue averting its gaze while Tehran's execution machine accelerates, or it can stand firmly alongside those risking everything for democracy and human rights.
The writer was a member of the European Parliament representing Scotland (1999-2014) and chairman of the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup (2004-14).
Hamas Militants and Police Executed and Maimed Dozens of Palestinians in Gaza, UN Report Says - Sam Metz ( AP)
Hamas militants and police units in Gaza beat, maimed, and publicly executed dozens of Palestinians during its war with Israel in acts amounting to war crimes, according to a report released Tuesday by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The report documented hundreds of cases of extrajudicial punishment which were often publicized during and afterward to instill fear in the populace.
"These cases involved executions, kneecapping, bone-breaking with metal pipes or cement bricks and beatings, and were framed by the perpetrators as punishments for alleged collaboration with Israel, looting humanitarian aid, theft, drug-related offenses or affiliations with internal rivals."
Hamas Is Depleted in Gaza - Stav Levaton ( Times of Israel)
While the IDF continues to carry out near-daily strikes in Gaza, which Israel says are aimed at thwarting threats to its forces or responding to violations of the truce, Hamas's last known attempt to fire a rocket at Israel came in January, when the IDF detected a failed launch from the Gaza City area.
Samuel Ben-Ur, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, "If they could carry out another Oct. 7-style attack today, they would." Instead, Hamas's restraint is more likely a reflection of its current capabilities than its ambitions.
Israeli military officials said in March that while Hamas is attempting to rearm amid the ceasefire, it is nowhere near attaining the strength it had before the war.
The IDF assessed that Hamas's efforts to rearm were "very limited," largely because it no longer has access to weapons-smuggling routes across the Egyptian border.
Analysts assess that Hamas continues to possess assault rifles, machine guns, and explosives used to manufacture IEDs.
IDF Is Forcing Hizbullah Backward in Lebanon - Amir Bohbot ( Jerusalem Post)
A senior Israel Air Force officer said the big advantage the IDF has in southern Lebanon today is that much of the area has been cleared of civilians.
"Collateral damage and harm to noninvolved people almost does not exist today in southern Lebanon....The moment you issue evacuation notices, people leave."
"We saw that in the Dahiyeh district [of Beirut] as well." Once the evacuation is complete, intelligence gathering can proceed quickly and troops can close in rapidly.
The IDF insists that Hizbullah's morale is actually very low. The officer said, "the enemy is moving backward."
The IDF "almost never encounters terrorists face to face. They leave before you arrive, because they understand that the military power is such that they cannot deal with it, and that is what is creating a crisis of trust inside Hizbullah."
He said the number of terrorists killed ranges from 30 to 70 a day.
The Iranian Regime Will Eventually Reconstitute Its Nuclear Program, Then See Whether Anyone Notices - Reuel Marc Gerecht ( UnHerd)
It's doubtful that Tehran can now sprint to the bomb: the damage is far too great, both to personnel and the country's uranium-enrichment facilities. The same may also be true of the stockpiles of centrifuge parts unaccounted for by the 2015 nuclear deal.
Counterintelligence concerns alone may well paralyze Iran's ambitions for some time.
Yet the Iranian regime, if it lasts, will eventually get around to testing Israeli and American intelligence, doing this slowly through a small, reconstituted nuclear program, then see whether anyone notices.
The writer is a Resident Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA.
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Electronic Warfare Opened the Skies of Iran - Elisha Ben Kimon ( Ynet News)
Lt.-Col. M., head of the Electronic Warfare Branch at the Israel Defense Ministry's Directorate of Defense Research and Development, told Ynet, "In the operations in Iran, we operated in arenas saturated with threats and some of the world's most advanced air defense systems."
"The role of our [electronic warfare] systems was to 'open the skies' - to create complete freedom of action for the Air Force over Iran, and to make sure the aircrews returned home safely."
Israel's electronic warfare systems, which combine advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, reduced the pilot's cognitive load, neutralized enemy radars, and allowed fourth-generation aircraft to operate with fifth-generation capabilities.
"The Iranians will come to the next round stronger and with a knife between their teeth. They understood very well what happened to them in the skies, but we are already working on the next surprise."
IDF Soldier Killed in Lebanon Donated Organs to Six Patients - Dr. Itay Gal ( Jerusalem Post)
Capt. Shahar Gamla, 23, was critically injured by an explosive drone in Lebanon and died on Saturday.
On Sunday, his heart and lungs were transplanted into two men at Rabin Medical Center. His liver was transplanted into a man at Ichilov, with a lobe transplanted into a 7-year-old girl at Schneider Children's Medical Center. His kidneys were transplanted into a man and woman at Beilinson.
His corneas have not yet been transplanted, and his skin was donated to the National Skin Bank, which treats burn victims.
Leah, Shahar's mother, said: "There is nothing greater than organ donation; it lets Shahar live on in other people. With joy and great love."
Search the Recent History of Israel and the Middle East
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Trump Orders Additional Strikes on Iran - Trey Yingst
I spoke with President Trump Wednesday night as he oversaw U.S. military strikes against Iran from the White House Situation Room. 49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the U.S., along with bombing from fighter jets. The closest target to Tehran was 40 miles outside the city.
Trump added that the bombing will stop shortly, but that if they don't sign the agreement, "we'll bomb the s--- out of them." Trump called this "the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world."
The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials who asked him to stop bombing.
Vice President JD Vance told me the U.S. is dealing with both moderate and more extreme voices in Iran as part of the negotiation process.
(X-Fox News)
See also Iran Fires Back at Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan - Jon Gambrell (AP)
See also Jordan Says It Intercepted 20 Missiles Launched from Iran (AFP-Al Arabiya)
- Iran Targets U.S. Bases in Jordan and the Gulf - Enas Alashray
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had carried out attacks against the U.S. al-Azraq base in Jordan using long-range missiles and struck other targets in Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday in retaliation for American strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media reported. Jordanian armed forces said on Wednesday they had intercepted and shot down five missiles launched from Iran toward al-Azraq.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted the Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with drones. A U.S. official said nearly all missiles and drones launched by Iran were intercepted.
(Reuters)
See also U.S. Completes Strikes in Response to Iran's Attack on Army Helicopter
U.S. Central Command forces completed self-defense strikes against Iran on Tuesday in response to the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter on Monday. U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz with precision munitions from U.S. Air Force and Navy fighter jets.
The operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters. U.S. forces remain vigilant and postured to defend against unjustified Iranian aggression.
(CENTCOM)
See also U.S. Army Crew Safely Rescued after Helicopter Lost at Sea (CENTCOM)
- Europe Is Becoming Iran's Playground for Terrorism - Colin P. Clarke and Adrian Shtuni
The U.S. Justice Department alleges that Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, 32, a Kata'ib Hizbullah commander, is responsible for several plots and attacks in Europe and North America claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), a front operating on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He was detained in Turkey. Al-Saadi allegedly attempted to coordinate attacks on a prominent New York City synagogue and Jewish community centers in Los Angeles and Scottsdale, Arizona.
HAYI began operating in March, days after U.S.-Israeli actions against the Iranian regime escalated.
It has claimed at least 18 attacks in Europe, targeting synagogues, Jewish schools, ambulances and community sites. The group and its supporters flooded pro-Iranian channels with footage of their attacks, amplifying the terror in real time. Many of these assaults, often done by Muslim immigrants, are straightforwardly antisemitic, meant to intimidate Jews.
Colin P. Clarke is the executive director of the Soufan Center. Adrian Shtuni is the CEO of Shtuni Consulting. (Washington Post)
See also 22 Countries Condemn Iran Front Group for Worldwide Terror Attacks
22 countries including the UK, U.S., Canada, France, Germany, and Australia "condemn the lethal plotting and other malign actions in Europe, North America and Australia by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Intelligence Organization, Quds Force and Ministry of Intelligence and Security, including those against Iranian dissidents, journalists and Jewish and Israeli communities and interests."
"The Islamic Republic of Iran must halt these actions now. The relationship between Iranian security services and international and local criminal groups is long standing. Their use of these groups is deplorable. We also condemn the recent campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and U.S. interests, claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI)." (UK Foreign Office)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Gaza Board of Peace to Continue Rehabilitation in Areas Not Controlled by Hamas - Amichai Stein
A source close to Gaza's Board of Peace (BoP) told the Jerusalem Post that the council is not waiting for Hamas's disarmament and will continue advancing projects in areas not controlled by Hamas. The source said Hamas's refusal to disarm "constitutes a serious breach of the agreement. As long as this remains the situation, the BoP is not able to invest in long-term infrastructure or housing projects in areas under Hamas."
Among the projects currently promoted by the BoP in territories outside Hamas control are the construction of temporary alternative housing and efforts to address education and healthcare needs. (Jerusalem Post)
- U.S. Building Military Base on Gaza Border - Danny Zaken
The U.S. military has begun building a base on the Gaza border, not far from the IDF's Re'im base. The new base will
replace the multinational headquarters located in Kiryat Gat and is intended to serve as a military and civilian headquarters for the organizations and forces that will arrive in the area to advance the Trump plan for Gaza.
Plans include the construction of a tower intended for command and control of forces in the field and
mobile structures intended for use by the forces involved. The construction of the new U.S. base is fully coordinated with Israel, which is providing the necessary assistance. (Israel Hayom)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- The Art of No Deal with Iran - Editorial
When the Iranian regime shoots down a U.S. Army helicopter, it's a much needed reminder that Tehran's negotiators are not seriously pursuing acceptable terms to end the war. While the U.S. launched a round of retaliatory strikes Tuesday described as "a proportional response," it's important for the U.S. to not cut a deal that would provide a lifeline of cash to Iran as the government continues pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
Without regime change, a good answer to the Iran question will remain elusive. Appeasement has never worked as a strategy to contain Iran's imperial ambitions. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. freed up billions in frozen funds in an attempt to buy goodwill during nuclear negotiations. Iran took the money and dragged out talks.
At the same time, Iran blew through limits on uranium enrichment, barred international nuclear inspections and continued to fund terrorist proxies across the region, including Hamas. Negotiations sputtered.
Instead of haggling, Trump can keep ratcheting up the cost of conflict for Iran. One of his most effective tools is the blockade, which has already shrunk Iranian oil exports from 2.1 million barrels per day in February to just 64,000. Flinching now would squander so much of the president's leverage. (Washington Post)
- Trump Needs a New Iran Strategy - Editorial
The President has given diplomacy a chance, but "they keep playing us for suckers," he said Wednesday. For nine weeks, the ceasefire has let Iran dictate events in the Gulf. The regime gets to start each "skirmish" and then decide when the exchange ends. The task at hand is to open the Strait of Hormuz to allied ships. If the U.S. blockade endures while Iran's breaks, the war is won.
As long as Iran believes Mr. Trump is stuck with no alternative, it will squeeze him in the talks and in Hormuz. The President's choice now is to alter the facts on the ground. (Wall Street Journal)
- A Long-Term Strategy to Deal with Iran - Jonathan Ruhe
No diplomatic agreement is going to end the war between Washington and Tehran. Revolutionary Iran's fundamental purpose is defined by combating American influence, both real and perceived, at home and abroad. The war will truly end only once the Islamic Republic disappears.
Seeking to avoid this fate, Iran's leaders are refusing any meaningful or binding concessions. After surviving the worst their mortal enemies could throw at them - and gaining a new feel for deterrence and leverage in the process - the country's new leaders act even more emboldened and defiant than their predecessors.
Once again, Tehran is angling for major sanctions relief in exchange for cosmetic concessions that do not prejudice its capacity to make nuclear fuel on its home soil. Even if the Trump administration gets everything it claims Iran has agreed to, the regime will emerge with the presumptive ability to covertly produce every component of a bomb.
Tehran currently believes that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately its decision and so is any future decision to reclose it. If it remains unchallenged, Tehran's control over Hormuz gravely undermines the decades-old U.S.-led regional security order premised on freedom of navigation upheld by American naval supremacy.
The U.S. clearly needs an effective and sustainable plan to reopen Hormuz without Tehran's sufferance, defend against aggression from a more militarized and risk-tolerant Iranian regime, and foster the conditions to collapse an Islamic Republic whose claims of recent victory do not negate its profound, enduring, and irreparable internal weaknesses.
The writer is a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. (Dispatch)
- The Iranian Regime Really Means Those Slogans: Death to America and Death to Israel - Interview with Elliott Abrams
I share what I would call the Israeli and Emirati view that actually it would be helpful to do another round, another week of attacks on Iran to soften up their position.
The argument that now there is a more radical regime in Tehran seems to me unpersuasive. Recall that in January, the old regime under the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed 30,000 unarmed citizens in the streets of their major cities in cold blood. So that's a pretty radical regime. They were bloodthirsty extremists.
I don't think the president has definitively stopped Iran from trying to build a nuclear arsenal, from trying to rebuild its missile program. They're going to keep on trying to do that. The nature of the regime is that it is aggressive, that it really means those slogans: death to America and death to Israel. They care about the great cause, which is essentially a religious one and has Israel very much in its sights. Bad things can be pushed off a year or five years, but there is no solution except the end of the regime.
If the U.S. and Israel are willing to act to prevent a quick rebuilding of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and if the Iranians are not rewarded with the lifting of the U.S. sanctions and an unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars, then they will come out of this war with a less legitimate government, a much tougher economic situation, and a much weaker military establishment. And those are real achievements.
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as White House deputy national security advisor, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East. (Fathom-BICOM-UK)
Hizbullah
- Israel Will Not Allow Iran a Veto over Operations Against Hizbullah in Lebanon - Gabriel Colodro
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the research division in IDF Military Intelligence, said the renewed fighting between Iran and Israel reflected dissatisfaction on both sides. Iran is under pressure from the U.S. blockade, sanctions, economic hardship, and the weakening of its proxies. Israel, meanwhile, remains unwilling to accept a reality in which Hizbullah can rebuild or operate from southern Lebanon while Iran attempts to deter Israeli action there.
"Mostly the Iranians are worried because the situation is putting a lot of pressure on them. Their proxies are suffering heavily. We want the threat from Hizbullah to be much lower and better dealt with....We made it clear that we are not going to let Hizbullah deploy in the south. If they operate from the south, there's going to be a price for that. The Iranians were trying to prevent us from doing that by their threat."
For Kuperwasser, the central issue is whether Iran will be allowed a direct veto over Israeli operations in Lebanon. "The most important thing is, of course, that our ability to take action in Lebanon is not limited and compromised. We should not accept Iran becoming a player in Lebanon."
Kuperwasser rejected the idea that Israel had formally declared regime change as the goal. "We never said that the goal of this war is to change the regime. We said that we would like to create the conditions that would enable the Iranian people to change the regime." (Media Line-Jerusalem Post)
- Is Shi'ite Support for Hizbullah Weakening? - Ralph Atrach
On May 31, a Hizbullah-affiliated group called on supporters to gather in downtown Beirut to protest the Lebanese government's support for diplomacy with Israel. Only a few dozen people showed up, a striking contrast to past years when Hizbullah could mobilize tens of thousands with ease. Days later, residents of Bayssarieh clashed with Hizbullah members who were reportedly moving military equipment into the southern Lebanese town.
Meanwhile, activists in Nabatieh and Tyre are increasingly voicing demands for stronger state authority in the southern towns, long dominated by Hizbullah, reflecting growing unease among the Shia over conditions in southern Lebanon. However, any effort to loosen Hizbullah's grip on the Shia community will depend on a broader realization among its constituents that supporting Hizbullah is a losing strategy.
Lebanese political writer Mona Fayad said that while more Shia appear willing to criticize Hizbullah, this should not be mistaken for a structured opposition capable of competing for power, which would need to overcome the social and psychological legacy of Hizbullah's decades-long dominance. "We are talking about forty years of conditioning and entrenchment," she said.
"The biggest indicator that Hizbullah lost the narrative of resistance is the military defeat happening in the south," Fayad said. "Hizbullah's supporters are today displaced, and many of them are living in the streets because of Hizbullah. Today, many are in shock or denial." (This Is Beirut-Lebanon)
See also Cracks in Shiite Support for Hizbullah - Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
Gaza
- Can Israel Contain Hamas without Reoccupying All of Gaza? - Prof. Efraim Inbar
Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative for the Board of Peace for Gaza, reported to the UN Security Council that establishing an effective transitional civilian authority in Gaza is not possible without first overcoming Hamas's resistance to disarming. Hamas remains the de facto ruler of the over 30% of Gaza it controls.
While the IDF could take over the entire Gaza Strip - and the prospect of a "decisive" victory is tempting - the wisdom of "finishing the job" is questionable. Hamas cannot be eliminated when its ideology commands broad support among the population in which it operates. Israel has not succeeded in eliminating or disarming Hamas in the West Bank, a territory that has been under IDF military control since 1967.
The conquest of all of Gaza would make its impoverished population of two million Israel's direct responsibility. A divided Gaza spares Israel this burden. Such a conquest would also transform the IDF, which currently operates in areas largely empty of civilian population into an occupation army functioning among civilians who have been educated for years by Hamas to hate Israelis. Any ambitious deradicalization project requires a multi-generational timeframe.
A Hamas-controlled enclave in Gaza is therefore a bearable outcome - provided Israel uses military force periodically to degrade enemy capabilities.
The writer, founder of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, also serves as Chair of the Program for Strategy, Diplomacy and Security at the Shalem Academic Center. (Jerusalem Post)
Israel and the U.S.
- When Israel Has Insisted on Its Sovereign Security Needs, It Has Earned Respect - Amb. Michael Oren
Ever since President Dwight D. Eisenhower demanded that Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion halt the Israel Defense Forces' campaign against Egypt in Sinai in 1956, and later withdraw from Gaza, the U.S. has consistently forced Israel to stop fighting and agree to a ceasefire. That was true in the 1967 Six-Day War, which Israel wanted to continue for an eighth day; in the 1973 Yom Kippur War; in both Lebanon wars; and in all our operations in Gaza.
Historically, U.S. presidents not only ordered Israel to stop fighting, they also opposed its decision to go to war in the first place. Yet Israel's leaders determined that our basic security was at stake and decided to act, despite the risk of a rift with Washington. Ironically, every time Israel defied the White House and went to war, in 1948, in 1967, and in the 1981 strike on Iraq's nuclear reactor, we earned America's respect. Every time we surrendered to pressure and showed restraint, in 1973 and in the 1991 Gulf War, we earned America's contempt.
Hizbullah will undoubtedly violate any ceasefire and continue attacking us. As in the past, Israel will have no choice but to act to defend the north, even if doing so risks not only war with Iran, but also an open confrontation with President Trump. With its eyes wide open to the potential cost, Israel must show that it is a sovereign country with an unshakable duty to defend its territory and its citizens. In the end, if history is our guide, Trump will respect us for it.
The writer was Israel's ambassador to the U.S., 2009-13. (Israel Hayom)
- What's Behind the Campaign to Demonize Israel in America? - Jonathan S. Tobin
In recent months, the world has witnessed some of the closest cooperation between the governments and armed forces of the U.S. and its ally Israel. The war launched on Feb. 28 against Iran was an exhibition of high-tech warfare that bespoke both the common purpose of the two nations and the trust that has been built over the years between their militaries. It was made possible by the willingness of the two governments to be engaged tactically on a level that rivals the alliance between the U.S. and Britain during the Second World War.
That collaboration upsets the political foes of the Trump administration and Israel. It's also galling to the small but vocal faction on the American right that is isolationist in its sensibilities and virulently anti-Israel in a way that often betrays the antisemitic attitudes of its advocates. That is the context for understanding the story that made headlines at NBC News and the New York Times about alleged Israeli spying on the U.S.
A deep dive into the details of the story reveals that it was not based on any actual revelations about Israeli espionage that had been uncovered. Instead, the articles merely floated suspicions. Moreover, it flies in the face of what credible sources say about Israeli intelligence.
Journalist Yossi Melman, who currently writes for Ha'aretz and is no fan of the Netanyahu government, has been covering this subject for decades. He wrote on June 7: "Israel's intelligence community stopped spying on U.S. soil and against American targets or individuals around the world following the Pollard affair in 1985. Period." Melman agrees that the real story here is why some figures in the Pentagon leaked these claims to liberal media outlets that remain notoriously hostile to the administration they serve.
The U.S.-Israel alliance is not a matter of American charity or mythical Israeli manipulation. It is a foundational element of U.S. national security against the ongoing threat of Islamist terror that deserves the support of all American patriots.
(JNS)
Israel and the West
- Zionist NGO Regavim to Countersue Canada, EU over Sanctions, Was Never Accused of Violence - Mathilda Heller
The Zionist NGO Regavim will be taking legal action against Canada and the EU following the imposition of sanctions, Naomi Kahn, director of the International Division at Regavim, told the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Canada imposed sanctions on Regavim, accusing the organization of violence against Palestinians.
Regavim works to protect Israel's national lands and resources, acting mainly to prevent illegal seizure of Israeli state land. Unlike some of the other individuals and entities sanctioned, Regavim has never been accused of violence against Palestinians.
"Sanctioning civil society organizations who have absolutely no connection to actual violence or were never accused of violence, have never been accused of any illegal activity whatsoever, is an attack on the state of Israel as a whole, and particularly in our case, it's an attack on Israel's judicial system," Kahn said.
The EU and Canada both said they sanctioned Regavim for "lobbying for the demolition of...an EU-funded Palestinian primary school at the Jabbet al Dhib village near Bethlehem." Kahn said the school was an "illegal structure that was built by the European Union on Israeli state land in Area C, the area under Israeli jurisdiction, and the court found grounds to demolish that structure."
"That just means that they don't like the court's judgment, and that means that they're sending a message, not very subtle, to Israel's judges: 'If you vote against the European Union's activities, even though they're illegal and everyone knows it, we will sanction you next, and we will sanction the entire state of Israel anytime they do something that we don't like, even when it's against the law.'" (Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- Dr. Menahem Merhavy, an expert on Iran at the Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said the latest Iranian missile attack on Israel "appears to be an attempt to save face....Iran has been unsuccessful in leveraging what it believes was victory over the U.S. and Israel."
- "Iran is on the verge of catastrophe, and losing Hizbullah is a major source of stress for it. The 'ring of fire' [surrounding Israel] is currently stuttering, but Iran won't give up the idea and will not abandon Hizbullah." Yet, "Iran's latest attack, and its quick signal that it finished retaliating, signals its unwillingness to enter another prolonged conflict because they cannot afford it."
- "Hizbullah can be pounded all over Lebanon, but Beirut and Iran can do absolutely nothing about it. Israel has been able to act freely in Lebanon for months....There is a lot of frustration with both Hizbullah and Iran among the Shiite community in Lebanon. Iran has yet to provide funds to rebuild homes that were destroyed by the Israeli military in the past two years. Hizbullah terrorists are also unable to move freely in Lebanon for constant fear of being targeted by Israel."
- Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics, said, "Hizbullah has been weakened to about half of its previous abilities, but still, they have significant ability to fight. Hizbullah is busy rebuilding itself," and Iran "is still helping Hizbullah - financially, militarily, and strategically - by positioning itself as its defender and savior."
- "Israel didn't attack Hizbullah between 2006 to 2023 for one reason - it was afraid that the massive missile and rocket arsenal would cause major damage to Israel. Now, Israel isn't afraid of attacking Hizbullah because of its potential to cause damage, but rather Israel is concerned that Iran will get involved and the U.S. will not support Israel if it chooses to respond."
- "Attacks against Hizbullah targets in southern Lebanon are small, tactical, and have little significance to Hizbullah's standing in Lebanon. Attacks against command headquarters, weapons depots, and assembly factories in Beirut and north of Beirut are at an almost strategic level that can weaken Hizbullah, and that needs to be Israel's target for the future." Hizbullah, once the centerpiece of Tehran's regional deterrence strategy, is increasingly busy preserving its own survival.
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