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Jerusalem Center for Security
and Foreign Affairs

DAILY ALERT

Thursday,
October 29, 2026

In-Depth Issues:

Senior Official: Iran Strike Not Dependent on Political Process in Israel - Danny Zaken (Israel Hayom)
A senior diplomatic official said potential renewed strikes on Iran remain completely independent of the timeline for forming a new government in Israel.
Military, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation between the U.S. and Israel remains tight and any decision regarding subsequent steps will align strictly with mutual American and Israeli interests.
If a strike on Iran is deemed necessary, planners will base the move solely on professional considerations.
Furthermore, the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections will not alter these strategic calculations.
"The president has goals that have not changed, and he is determined to achieve them, primarily the complete neutralization of the Iranian military nuclear program and the removal of the military threat to Hormuz and to Iran's neighbors," the official said.

Israel's Arab Citizens Choose the Ballot Box; Palestinians Still Wait for Independent Candidates - Khaled Abu Toameh (Gatestone Institute)
In Israel's Oct. 27, 2026, election, two Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, secured a combined 19 seats, a significant increase from the 10 seats they held in the outgoing parliament.
So much for the sweeping claim that Israel is an "apartheid state."
The election demonstrates that Arab citizens of Israel vote, and win substantial representation in the country's national parliament.
The election highlights an important distinction between Arab citizens of Israel and Palestinians living under the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank or under Hamas's rule in Gaza.
The last election for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) took place in 2006, when Hamas won 74 of the PLC's 132 seats.
The record turnout for Arab-led parties demonstrates that Israel's parliamentary system provides a route for political participation that Arab citizens are actively using.
The international community should support not just elections for the Palestinians, but, even more, genuine political competition, independent candidates, transparency, institutions capable of holding elected leaders accountable, and an end to corruption and glorification of violence and "martyrdom."

Success of Arab Parties in Israeli Election Shatters the "Apartheid" Libel - Brendan O'Neill (Spiked-UK)
Following the success of the Arab parties in Israel's general election, the Israeli "apartheid" lie has completely collapsed.
Some of us never believed it, clocking it as yet another Israelophobic libel designed to smear the Jewish state. Yet surely others can see through this calumny now, too.
Joe Public has heard for years that Israel is an apartheid state that treats Arabs as brutishly as the old South Africa treated blacks.
What was staggering was the speed and ease with which the defamers of the Jewish state switched from calling it an apartheid hellhole to giddily sharing clips of Arabs and Bedouin people riding their camels to the polling station to put pressure on Netanyahu.
These people know they're lying, don't they?

Blaming the Jews for Everything in Michigan - Editorial (Wall Street Journal)
A common theme of antisemites throughout history is to blame the Jews for any and every social ill.
Now this has reappeared in America with a new ad for Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed that blames grocery prices on U.S. support for Israel.
The ad features a couple agonizing over high prices at a supermarket. The wife tells her husband that "you're going to have to put those eggs back" because "we have to set that $7 aside for killing Palestinians."
Later the husband asks about the Israelis, "Don't they get universal health care too?" "Yeah, they do. And we're paying for that too probably," she replies. "Might as well put the bananas back."
The unmistakable message: Americans are paying more and making personal sacrifices because the U.S. is supporting Israel's alleged genocide against Palestinians.
Most Michiganders are smart enough to know that Israel isn't responsible for inflation, but the ad is intended to feed grievances on the far left and right.

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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War after Midterms - Summer Said
The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections. The U.S. has moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation. U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, officials said.
President Trump is leaning toward a large postelection attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking said. (Wall Street Journal)
Foiled RAF Air Base Attack Coordinated by Iranian Agent Overseas - Megan Specia
British prosecutor Louise Gray told a court in London on Tuesday that a man based outside Britain and believed to be working for Iran is suspected of orchestrating the security incident last month at RAF Fairford, an air base also used by the U.S.
Investigators believe the man provided funding and asked people in Britain to conduct reconnaissance of the military site, to purchase vans and other supplies, and to find drivers, Gray said. Prosecutors believe the man, referred to as Ali, was acting in the interests of the Iranian state, and that he used dashcams to track the five men who were arrested near Fairford on Sept. 27. (New York Times)
Israeli Election Results Show No Clear Winner - Feliz Solomon
As of Thursday, the results showed Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition losing its current parliamentary majority. But with 95% of the votes counted, his coalition was ahead of its rivals, denying his opponents a victory but short of a majority that would return his coalition to power. Many experts foresee a hung parliament that ultimately heads to another round of elections, with Netanyahu as a caretaker premier.
The biggest surprise was the projected showing for Israel's two major Arab parties, which surged to a combined 19 possible seats from 10 seats now. Arab citizens of Israel make up 20% of the country's population. There could still be weeks of negotiations before a governing coalition is formed and a new prime minister is chosen by the Knesset. More than 3/4 of all Israeli voters cast their ballots in one of the highest turnouts in any Israeli election. (Wall Street Journal)

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

2026 Knesset Election Results (not final)
(Out of 120 Knesset seats)
Likud (Netanyahu) - 26
Yashar (Eisenkot) - 21
B'Yachad (Bennet) - 12
Joint List (Yousef Jabareen-Arab) - 11
The Democrats (Yair Golan) - 8
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas-Arab) - 8
Yisrael Beytenu (Lieberman) - 7
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) - 7
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Asher) - 7
Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 7
Religious Zionism (Smotrich) - 6
(Ha'aretz-Knesset Central Elections Committee)
6 Hamas Terrorists Killed in Recent Gaza Strikes - Emanuel Fabian
The IDF said Wednesday it had killed six members of Hamas in recent strikes in Gaza, including three who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre. A strike on Sunday in Khan Yunis killed Anas Akram Muhammad Humaida, a Nukhba Force commander who invaded the Sufa army post on Oct. 7. A strike on Sunday in Gaza City killed Ashraf Mahmoud Yusuf Dahlan, a company commander who infiltrated Israel on Oct. 7.
A strike on Monday in Gaza City killed Nukhba commander Mahmoud Othman Abdullah Alwan. A strike on Friday killed Nukhba terrorists Omar Awadallah and Moataz Mahmoud Mohammed Al-Nimr. A strike on Thursday killed Nukhba terrorist Ahmed Muhammad Ahmed Baraka, who invaded Kibbutz Nir Oz on Oct. 7. He took part in abducting several Israeli civilians and assisted in holding numerous hostages. (Times of Israel)

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

Israeli Knesset Election 2026

Very Little Is Likely to Change after Israeli Election - Bret Stephens
The first thing to say about Tuesday's election in Israel is that the country is having one. Competitive, lawful, on schedule. That's more than can be said of the Palestinian Authority under the presidency of Mahmoud Abbas, who was elected to a four-year term in 2005 but has bypassed elections ever since. It's more than can be said for Hamas, which won Palestinian legislative elections in 2006, went to war against its domestic political opponents, and has ruled through fiat and fear ever since.
It's difficult to take Israel's inveterate critics seriously when they demand a "Free Palestine" without registering the slightest audible objection to the tyrannies in Ramallah and Gaza; or when, in the name of freedom and equality, they seek to abolish the Middle East's only functioning liberal democracy.
For an election widely billed as the most important in the country's history, very little is likely to change, at least as far as the outside world is concerned. Not one of the leading contenders wants a Palestinian state. Not one of them is going to remove Israelis from the West Bank or issue a blanket ban on settlement construction. Not one of them wants anything less than an assertive military posture toward Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran.
Of the many intellectually flabby critiques of Israeli policy since Oct. 7, the idea that Israel should have traded its physical security for the sake of some added dollops of liberal pity is among the flabbiest. Israel doesn't exist to showcase Jewish victimization. It exists to end it.
At stake is whether a people who have borne the burden of Hamas's terror and Iran's missiles and a nonstop state of emergency and the unceasing chorus of global condemnation that is one part ignorance, two parts bigotry and three parts self-delusion should have a government worthy of their sacrifice, steadiness and courage. (New York Times)
Israelis Are Broadly United on Attitude to Country's Enemies - Con Coughlin
Despite the inconclusive result of Israel's general election, it remains highly unlikely that replacing Netanyahu with Eisenkot would have any profound impact on the many security challenges facing the wider Middle East. When it comes to issues surrounding Israel's security, there is little to distinguish between the two main contenders for the premiership in terms of their uncompromising approach to defeating Israel's many foes.
Eisenkot, 66, the former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) who served in Netanyahu's war cabinet after the Oct. 7 attacks, is just as much a hawk as Netanyahu when it comes to defending Israelis from the many regional threats they face. He shares Netanyahu's view that Israel must prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at all costs, and that it is vital to disrupt and degrade Tehran's terrorist infrastructure throughout the Middle East.
Following the national trauma of Oct. 7, it is a prerequisite for almost all Israeli voters that whoever leads their country regards the defense of the Jewish homeland as their number-one priority. So far as the wider Middle East is concerned, the next Israeli government will be equally robust when confronting its many foes.
Israel will continue to target any attempt by Iran to reconstitute its nuclear program, the majority of which has been reduced to rubble. Likewise, Israel will continue to press for the complete disarmament of Hamas terrorists in Gaza, and will maintain its efforts to disrupt the activities of Hizbullah and other Iranian-backed terror groups in the region. (Telegraph-UK)

Iran

Australian News Host Targeted by Iranian Intelligence - Sharri Markson
News24 host Sharri Markson explains: When I received a message from a former Trump administration official in August, asking me to meet with his team at a prestigious think-tank, I never could have imagined I was conversing with an Iranian intelligence agent. It was the start of a two-month sophisticated and targeted sting that ended with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gaining access to my personal emails and details in a major security breach.
The X account of a former senior Trump administration contact had been infiltrated by an Iranian operative, who sent me an invitation for an online conversation with "Cathleen." As I attempted to make contact, I grew slightly suspicious and sent my contact messages on various accounts to "double-check" that he had asked me to meet with Cathleen. He replied that he had no idea who Cathleen was and had not connected her with me.
It was too late. Hostile foreign intelligence agents had been able to infiltrate my Google Drive, containing my personal emails and details. Six days later, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director General Mike Burgess informed me that Iran had targeted me personally. He said, "You're well-known in the media, a strong supporter of Jews and Israel, a critic of Iran. This is part of Iran's anti-America, anti-Israel, antisemitic agenda."
Many political leaders present the war in Iran as a distant threat. Yet the Iranian regime has demonstrated that it is prepared to target Australians on our own soil. Our politicians need to recognize that Iran poses a serious and ongoing threat not only to America and Israel, but to Australian citizens. (News24-Australia)

Israel and the West

The West Is Deluded about a Two-State Solution - Nicole Lampert
Hila Fenlon is a farmer who lives in a small community on the border with Gaza. She believes in peace. Her village - moshav Netiv HaAsara - is 400 meters from Gaza. On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists flew in on paragliders and killed 20 of her community in a bitter fight. Hila symbolizes how, while the country might be divided on many lines, Israelis speak with one voice when it comes to external threats.
The story they tell is one which feels a million miles away from the many pronouncements made in the capitals in the Western world. Among the voters I spoke to ahead of the election, even the most optimistic peace-loving Israelis struggled to envisage a Palestinian state happening in this generation.
The disconnect between the rhetoric about this conflict that our Parliament has spent so much time blustering over - on a subject we have absolutely no influence over - and the reality on the ground is staggering.
Before Oct. 7, most of Israel believed the consensus idea of containment: to allow Hamas the freedom to rule Gaza, the view that however bad their rhetoric about wanting to destroy Israel, however many rockets they periodically sent over, they didn't really want to start a war. Until they did.
Now for most Israelis, whatever their political persuasion, the blinkers have come off. The suffering of the Palestinians is just a small part of the picture. Zoom out and you see Hamas growing in power in the West Bank without having disarmed, a radicalized population, and Iran - hurt but not broken - still intent on destroying the country.
The wars that Israel has been enduring for the past three years with Hamas, Hizbullah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran may have been simmering, rather than raging, but they have not gone away. Israelis see that Hamas is still a danger which won't disappear by itself. "We want peace, of course we do," says Hila. "We don't want our children and grandchildren to grow up under the shadow of bombs and rockets. But how do you have peace when there is no partner for it?" (Telegraph-UK)

Observations:

After Oct. 7, Israelis Were Forced to Choose between Two Bad Options - Dr. Micah Goodman (New York Times)

Politicians on the left and right in the U.S. these days often seem more focused on Israel, its treatment of the Palestinians, and its policies in the Middle East than on the usual local concerns, like the number of children in a classroom or unemployment. This preoccupation is a puzzle to many Israelis.
Do Israelis really not care what the world thinks about them? No. They care a lot. But what concerns them even more is what their enemies think. Israelis want the Western world to love them but their enemies in the Middle East to fear them.
In the days after the Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis by Hamas, most Western countries displayed a deep empathy for Israel. But the coin had another side. Hamas's invasion and the slaughter signaled to the neighborhood that Israel had lost power. Western love moved Israelis, but their enemies' dissipation of fear aroused existential anxiety.
Three years later, the successes of the Israeli Army rehabilitated the army's deterrent power in the Middle East. The trouble is that the actions that restored Israel's image in the region have severely damaged its image in the West. Any restraint that Israel might have shown to maintain Western sympathy would have prevented it from restoring the fear felt by its enemies. And everything it did to establish fear eroded sympathy. The catch is that it can't have both.
After Oct. 7, Israelis were forced to choose between two bad options. Going to war against a terrorist army requires ground operations amid a civilian population - a blueprint for large-scale death and devastation. But not going to war would have left Hamas with the ability to repeat the massacre, signaled to Israel's enemies that it had lost the ability to defend itself, and stripped Israelis of confidence that they could continue building a future in their own country.
There is broad agreement in Israel: the war and its justifiability are not topics of public debate in the current election. Israel was required to choose bad over worse but judged as if it had chosen bad over good.

The writer is a research fellow at Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

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