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In-Depth Issues:
IDF Troops Can See Hamas Operating beyond Ceasefire Line but Are Barred from Acting - Gal Ganot ( Ynet News)
IDF reservists serving in central Gaza say they are watching Hamas forces operate beyond the Yellow Line but are increasingly restricted from acting against them under tightened ceasefire rules.
A commander in the sector told Ynet, "Our activity here is mainly defensive. We are operating all the time in case they cross."
"Today we are not allowed to fire beyond the Yellow Line. We understand that sometimes there is an international game, agreements, powers, all of that is understood. But in the end, you see the other side operating and you are somewhat limited. My hands are tied up to a point. Now they have tightened the procedures."
Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting Tuesday with U.S. special envoy Jared Kushner, the IDF reiterated an instruction issued about a month ago not to continue pushing the Yellow Line westward.
According to the IDF, Israeli forces currently hold 65% of Gaza.
U.S. Sanctions International Criminal Court President and Senior Prosecutor ( U.S. State Department)
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday: "The International Criminal Court (ICC) is a corrupt and fatally politicized supranational court that has maliciously abused its authority and exceeded its mandate. We will not tolerate its assault on state sovereignty."
"I am designating two ICC officials - President of the ICC Tomoko Akane of Japan, and ICC Senior Trial Lawyer Abdoulaye Seye of Senegal - pursuant to Executive Order 14203, 'Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court.'"
"These individuals have directly engaged in efforts by the ICC to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute officials whose government has not consented to ICC jurisdiction."
"The ICC has repeatedly attempted to assert authority over nationals of the United States and other countries that have not consented to its jurisdiction."
"The ICC's ability to target American nationals and those of other non-States Parties must end."
Syria Says Nuclear Material to Remain Under Its Control ( Reuters)
Nuclear material found in Syria would remain in Syrian custody, subject to the International Atomic Energy Agency's guarantees, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Tuesday at a joint press conference with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi in Damascus.
Grossi said the agency was able to access the site.
U.S. Weighing Smaller Military Presence in Gulf Once Iran War Ends - Noah Robertson ( Washington Post)
The Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East after America's large overseas military bases in the Persian Gulf have been battered by months of Iranian strikes.
The Defense Department has signaled that it might not rebuild its bases as they were before the conflict.
U.S. Central Command, which runs military operations in the Middle East, normally stations 40,000 troops across almost 20 sites.
Before the start of the war in February, U.S. Central Command evacuated many of its bases, judging them too vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone attacks to maintain normal staffing levels.
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How Central Asia Thinks about Israel - Arjun Singh ( National Interest)
Central Asia is dominated by Muslim-majority, largely Turkic countries. The region has taken a pragmatic approach toward Israel even after hostilities began in Gaza.
Israel's best friend in Central Asia is Kazakhstan, which joined the Abraham Accords in November 2025. Along with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan supplies a significant portion of Israel's oil imports.
Even with an Islamic majority, the country has historically been tolerant of Jews. Many Jewish refugees fleeing Europe found safe harbor in Kazakhstan, where a sizeable number of German, Polish, and Hungarian Jewish populations temporarily resettled.
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan all have diplomatic ties with Israel, but the relationships aren't meaningful. More than Kazakhstan, these countries are majority-Turkic states whose relations with Turkey are lucrative and growing.
Tajikistan has the weakest Israel connections due to the country's close cultural proximity to Iran. The Tajik population speaks a Persian dialect.
Palestinian Rejectionism Is the Harder Problem - Saurav Dutt ( Times of Israel)
We have been told that poverty and humiliation provide fertile ground for extremism, that if we improve Palestinian living standards, violence will diminish.
Give people jobs, better infrastructure, greater freedom of movement and a stake in economic prosperity, and they will have more to lose from conflict.
But this does not explain a conflict in which rejection of Israel has repeatedly survived periods of diplomatic opportunity, economic assistance and improved living conditions.
For more than a century, Palestinian and Arab leaders have rejected a succession of proposals that envisaged some form of territorial partition or coexistence between Jewish and Arab states.
The agreements of the 1990s created the Palestinian Authority, transferred significant governing responsibilities to Palestinians, and generated new possibilities for economic cooperation.
Yet the decade also witnessed a wave of suicide bombings and other attacks, culminating in the Second Intifada in which more than 1,000 Israelis were killed.
The uprising demonstrated that greater Palestinian autonomy and economic cooperation were not sufficient to prevent a return to mass violence.
A movement like Hamas that is motivated in part by the belief that Israel itself is illegitimate will not necessarily abandon violence simply because its supporters become more prosperous.
A durable peace requires more than the absence of poverty. It requires political acceptance of the other side's legitimacy.
Where children are taught that national liberation requires the elimination of the other side, economic development alone is unlikely to resolve the underlying dispute.
That is why the debate over Palestinian living standards can become a distraction when presented as the central explanation for the conflict.
If poverty were the decisive cause of Palestinian violence, decades of aid, economic initiatives, employment inside Israel, and diplomatic engagement should have produced a consistent decline in hostility. They have not.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Iran Has Lost Significant Control of Strait of Hormuz - David Goldman
In the battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S., patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground and Iran is losing much of its control of the waterway. More than 80% of liquids transiting the strait over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route - a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes - according to Kpler, which tracks ships.
While Iran has attacked dozens of ships, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran's demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from U.S. naval forces. "It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have chartered Very Large Crude oil Carriers (VLCCs) - the biggest oil tankers - to transit out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, then transferring the oil to customers' tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman. (CNN)
See also U.S. Conducting Stealth Operation to Transport Oil through Hormuz - Barak Ravid
For the last several weeks, 15-20 tankers have entered and exited the Strait of Hormuz each night through a channel along the coast of Oman. About 10 million barrels of oil a day - roughly half the pre-war volume - are being injected into the global energy market, U.S. officials said. The amount of oil coming out of the strait is making a discernible difference in global supplies.
"We have been controlling the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz for two months now. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can be a nuisance, but they don't control the strait. We do," said one U.S. official.
The operation was made possible by a recent two-week U.S. military campaign that degraded Iran's radar and maritime surveillance systems. (Axios)
- Iran Central Bank Chief Says Oil Exports Have Fallen to Zero - David Vujanovic
Iran is currently exporting no oil, Abdolnaser Hemmati, the country's central bank chief, said on state television on Wednesday. He warned that Iran's access to foreign exchange was increasingly constrained, raising questions over its ability to sustain essential imports. He added that none of Iran's frozen funds had yet been released under the June framework agreement with the U.S. (The National-UAE)
- Trump Threatens Iran with "Economic D-Day" -
Meridith McGraw
President Trump said Wednesday he would launch a major economic campaign against Iran and any entity that does business with the regime. "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences," he posted on Truth Social. "Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies" - it all needs to stop NOW." (Wall Street Journal)
See also below Commentary: Trump's Plan to Squeeze Iran's Economy Will Depend on the UAE - Summer Said (Wall Street Journal)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israel's Syria Airfield Attack Sends Warning to Turkey and al-Sharaa - Ron Ben-Yishai
In April 2025, Israeli Air Force jets struck the runways of Syria's T4 military air base, which during the Syrian civil war served Iranian forces transferring advanced air defense systems to Hizbullah and Syria. Arab and international media reported at the time that Israel targeted T4's runways because Turkey, following the collapse of the Assad regime, was seeking to take control of the base and deploy air defense systems and detection radars there.
Israel appeared to be drawing a red line. As Turkish troops, engineers and contractors made their way toward the base, Israeli aircraft struck its runways and surrounding areas, signaling that Jerusalem would not accept a Turkish military presence at such a strategically important site. Sophisticated Turkish radar and interception systems there could severely restrict the Israeli Air Force's freedom of action over Syria.
The Tuesday night strike against the runways and facilities of Abu al-Duhur military airfield in northwestern Syria was carried out for similar strategic reasons. A Turkish military presence equipped with
detection radars as well as missile and aircraft interception systems could pose a serious threat to Israel's ability to operate if fighting with Iran resumes.
At the same time, Israel appears determined to avoid a direct confrontation with Turkey. The strike was carried out against areas where no people were present, and certainly no Turkish troops or civilians. The
strike also is a message to Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa that Israel will not accept Turkey taking control of strategic positions in Syria in ways that threaten Israeli security interests.
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who also serves as President Trump's special envoy for Syria, condemned the strike. His criticism caused little surprise in Israel. Barrack, who is of Lebanese descent, is viewed in Jerusalem as a strong supporter of Turkish President Erdogan and a patron of Syria's President al-Sharaa. (Ynet News)
See also Israel Confirms Strikes on Syrian Airbase
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said Tuesday: "Israel and Syria agreed to a status quo in security matters, which Syria was on the verge of breaching by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo. Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel's security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings. Israel will not tolerate threats to its security, and would welcome a return to the status quo." (X)
- Israel Tried to Reach an Understanding with Syria on Turkey's Use of Its Bases - Avi Ashkenazi
Israel made several attempts to reach an understanding regarding Turkey's use of Syrian bases with President al-Sharaa via indirect dialogue, a source in Israel's security establishment told Channel 11. Israel only took action against the Syrian base once those talks fell through. A source told the Jerusalem Post that Israel recently provided the U.S. with intelligence on attempts by Syria to build up its military capabilities. (Jerusalem Post)
See also Mossad Director, Syrian Foreign Minister Discussed Turkish Military Deployments before Airstrike - Timour Azhari
Mossad spy agency chief Roman Gofman spoke by phone with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani on August 14, during which they discussed Turkey's military presence in Syria. (Reuters)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Trump's Plan to Squeeze Iran's Economy Will Depend on the UAE - Summer Said
President Trump's effort to squeeze Iran into submission will depend heavily on curbing one of the country's biggest economic lifelines: Dubai. The United Arab Emirates said Tuesday that it has suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran, potentially threatening Tehran's access to a major source of imports and a financial back door to the world.
For weeks, the Trump administration has been cajoling the UAE to crack down on Iranian financial networks operating in the country, telling Emirati officials that targeting money flows linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could have a greater impact on Tehran than the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.
If implemented broadly, the UAE could significantly curb Tehran's access to foreign currency and global trade networks.
But severing those links will be difficult. Oil revenues, foreign-currency trades, and payments for Iranian entities have long moved through shell companies and exchange houses in Dubai, often without an Iranian name appearing on the transaction. Cutting off Iran would also require Emirati authorities to crack down much more aggressively on opaque financial and trading activity, which could hurt Dubai's role as a freewheeling global hub for commerce, capital and re-exports.
"When you look at Iranian sanctions evasion and Iran's ability to earn money from illicit oil sales, Dubai is a major hub for illicit financial flows," said former U.S. sanctions official Max Meizlish, now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "The UAE taking action against direct trade and financial activity is important, but the reality is that a great deal of indirect activity flows through banks in Dubai supporting Iran's shadow-banking and illicit-financing operations." (Wall Street Journal)
- China and Russia Are Keeping Iran Armed and Dangerous - Bradley Bowman and Cameron McMillan
A significant reason for Iran's resilience, lethality and leverage is the growing support Tehran is receiving from China and Russia. When the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran in February, Russia provided Iran with valuable drone and intelligence support that strengthened its offensive capabilities. Russia has aided Iran's attacks by reportedly sharing drone tactics and technologies tested on the battlefield in Ukraine.
In fact, the Islamic republic's prolific use of drone attacks targeting U.S. and partner forces has been one of Tehran's most potent tools throughout the war. On March 1, an Iranian drone struck a U.S. operations center in Kuwait, killing six American soldiers.
Russia reportedly provided Iran with satellite imagery and other forms of intelligence to enable Iranian attacks on American military positions, likely improving Tehran's ability to target U.S. forces and high-value assets with drones and ballistic missiles. On July 17, three American soldiers were killed by an Iranian ballistic missile attack in Jordan.
China has supplied Iran with chemicals which can be used to produce ammonium perchlorate, used
in the solid-propellant rocket motors that power most ballistic missiles. Moreover, in 2024, the IRGC acquired a Chinese surveillance satellite previously launched by China, which Tehran has reportedly used to target U.S. forces.
Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Cameron McMillan is a senior research analyst.
(Washington Post)
Gaza
- Is the U.S. Legitimizing Hamas? - Elliott Abrams
During his recent trip to the Middle East, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner met with the head of Hamas, Khalil al-Hayya. That Kushner met with this terrorist leader guarantees legitimizing Hamas. What political leader or diplomat, what foreign minister or special envoy, visiting the region henceforth will want to skip such a meeting?
Legitimizing and therefore strengthening terrorist groups is never the path to peace. Kushner could have delegated the meeting to a lower-ranking official. Or he could have made some tough demands up front and said al-Hayya would have to earn a meeting with the American representative.
Al-Hayya is an old-timer and up to his neck in blood. He will never abandon Hamas's goal of destroying Israel nor its commitment to violence to get there. He has already won the negotiation, because the real news is the fact of the meeting.
A refusal to meet with the leader of Hamas would be acknowledging the reality that Hamas is a murderous terror organization that has committed bestial massacres - and then celebrated them. Hamas will use the Kushner meeting to demand a larger role as a diplomatic and political presence in the Middle East. This is exactly what the U.S. should be against and should be preventing.
The writer, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as White House deputy national security advisor, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East. (National Review)
- Hamas Unleashed Consequences It Could Not Control - Dr. Ofer Israeli
Hamas succeeded in shocking Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, but shock is not the same as victory. Hamas sought to show that Gaza could not be ignored and that Israeli deterrence was brittle. Hamas-led militants breached Israel's border defenses, killed 1,200 people, and abducted 251 Israelis and foreign nationals, forcing Israel, the U.S., Arab states, and international institutions to reorder their priorities around Gaza.
But this disruption opened a wider field of counteraction, adaptation, and cascading consequences that became a struggle over Hamas's survival. The consequences for Hamas have been enormous: degraded military infrastructure, disrupted command networks, the killing of commanders, exposed tunnels, weakened governance, and growing diplomatic pressure to remove Hamas from Gaza's future security and political arrangements.
Hamas sought to break Israel's deterrence model, and it did. Yet in doing so, it shifted the debate to whether Hamas could retain military power, govern Gaza, or take part in any postwar order. Hamas's own action converted a managed conflict into a direct challenge to its continued authority.
Hamas did force the Palestinian question back onto the global agenda. Yet the price has been catastrophic. Gaza has endured immense destruction, mass displacement, humanitarian collapse, and social exhaustion. Hamas may have restored visibility to the Palestinian issue, but it did so while devastating the Palestinian arena. (Times of Israel)
- Will Gaza Reconstruction Funds Be Used to Support Palestinian Terrorism? - Rami Simani and Dr. Adam Reuter
The rehabilitation of Gaza is an enormous prize for terrorism and runs completely counter to the Israeli interest.
The chances that the real rehabilitation of Gaza will actually take shape are slim. There is no logic in investing astronomical sums, in the range of $50-70 billion, in order to reestablish an entity whose only desire and purpose is harassing Israel and attempting to destroy it.
Previous rehabilitation funding never prevented terrorist organizations from wanting to rearm and fight Israel again. The rehabilitation of Gaza is also a prize for terrorism. A murderer who took part in the massacre and whose home was destroyed will receive a new home - not at his own expense but with international funding.
Past experience shows that rehabilitation funds are essentially "protection money" to keep the population quiet, most of which will be used for the renewed military strengthening of the terrorist organizations.
For a large portion of Gaza's population, the center of life is the war against Israel. They chose Hamas, whose founding manifesto is the destruction of Israel.
As long as that ideological infrastructure exists, no reeducation toward values of peace will succeed there. In our assessment, most Gazans would be happy to leave this hellish wasteland and relocate. It is even morally right to help them do so. If the Egyptians refuse to open the crossings to Egypt for passage to other countries, Israel must allow any Gazan who wishes to do so to leave voluntarily by air or sea. (Ynet News)
- Hamas Must Be Drained of Its Money as Well as Its Weapons - David Horovitz
Hamas is manifestly playing the U.S. and playing for time. It is recruiting, training, and awaiting a more anti-Israel American administration. It is awaiting a resumption of funding from the Iranian regime.
The success of the U.S.-led effort to marginalize Hamas and gradually change the face of Gaza requires genuine Hamas disarmament, ongoing and relentless elimination of Hamas operatives preparing and attempting to carry out attacks, and a heightened focus on Hamas's finances.
According to the Mitvim think tank, Hamas retains the ability to tax and loot aid supplies entering Gaza to the tune of $2 million a day. It is essential, therefore, that the yet-to-be-deployed International Stabilization Force fully control the entire aid distribution process.
Mitvim researcher Yitzhak Gal told Army Radio on Monday that Hamas, in agreeing to relinquish civilian governance to the Board of Peace's National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, the intended interim technocratic government, is playing the U.S., since it has ensured that the hierarchies through which this committee would seek to operate are staffed by Hamas and its loyalists.
In June, the IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate warned that Hamas was producing hundreds of explosive devices and anti-tank missiles every month, recruiting fighters aged 18-22, and restarted training for members of its Nukhba force. Hamas is also trying to smuggle in drones and communication devices from Sinai, and is working to rebuild its underground infrastructure. (Times of Israel)
Palestinian Arabs
- Too Many Palestinians Would Rather Be Permanent Victims than Have Their Own State - David Harris
Too many Palestinian leaders have perpetuated a politics of victimhood, fostered dependence on international aid, promoted educational curricula and media messages that demonize Jews and glorify "martyrdom," and rejected repeated opportunities for meaningful compromise in pursuit of the fantasy of Israel's disappearance.
That approach has led nowhere - and it never will. Israel is not going anywhere. It would be far wiser for responsible international leaders and bodies to stop decades of indulging, coddling, and subsidizing this dysfunctional behavior.
Rather, they should raise the bar and insist on the emergence of Palestinian leaders committed to educating for compromise, preparing their people for coexistence, and choosing responsible nation-building over perpetual conflict.
The writer is executive vice chair of the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP). (Telegraph-UK)
Observations:
- Iran has warned Syria against taking action against Hizbullah, an option President Trump has raised on several occasions. Tehran made clear that it would strike more than a hundred targets inside Syria should Damascus act.
Syria is continuing to pursue Iranian weapons shipments moving through Iraq and Syria to the Lebanese border, while actively working to disrupt Hizbullah's logistics network inside Syrian territory.
- This anti-Iranian, and by extension anti-Hizbullah, posture reflects a broader Syrian orientation.
From its earliest days, the interim government in Damascus pursued a deliberate policy of distancing itself from Tehran.
- Syria deployed more than four divisions, including former fighters who had taken part in the campaign against Assad, along its border with Lebanon, targeting areas long used as smuggling routes. Damascus openly backed Lebanese state efforts to disarm Hizbullah while simultaneously conducting sweeps against Iranian-backed supply lines along the border.
- The unity Damascus projects to the outside world conceals a military structure still built from former factions, regional commanders, and armed groups whose loyalties were forged during the civil war and have not automatically transferred to a unified national command. The new Syrian army has yet to become a genuinely homogeneous national institution, as powerful field commanders retain their own fighters, local networks, and foreign patrons.
- Turkey has emerged as Damascus's primary security partner and is actively training and restructuring the Syrian national army. Turkish officials have openly discussed supplying the new army with weapons and military assistance.
- Preventing Syria from becoming a Turkish forward military position should be a central Israeli objective. Israel should insist that any emerging security arrangement with Damascus include clear limits on foreign military deployments, particularly Turkish combat aircraft, air-defense systems, and permanent bases that could constrain Israeli operational freedom.
- Washington has already pressed Israel to begin redeploying from Syrian territory. Israel should not surrender strategically valuable positions in exchange for promises alone. Any withdrawal should instead be tied to enforceable security arrangements: demilitarization, protection of the Druze population in southern Syria, prevention of hostile deployments, and credible guarantees regarding foreign military forces. Every Israeli concession should be matched by a concrete, verifiable Syrian commitment, not in exchange for declarations of moderation alone.
Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. Oded Ailam, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
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