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In-Depth Issues:
International Atomic Energy Agency: "A Lot Has Survived" of Iran's Nuclear Capabilities - Melissa Quinn ( CBS News)
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Thursday that "a lot has survived" of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
He said last year's strikes on three nuclear facilities were "quite effective. There has been a lot of impact on the program. One cannot deny that this has really rolled back the program considerably."
"But my impression is that once the military effort comes to an end, we will still inherit a number of major issues that have been at the center of all of this."
Grossi said one of those issues is Iran's inventory of uranium at 60% enrichment, as well as facilities, infrastructure and equipment, which could be damaged.
"They have the capabilities, they have the knowledge, they have the industrial ability" to rebuild enrichment capacity.
Revealed: Iran Came Close to Assassinating Senior Israeli Officials - Itay Ilnai ( Israel Hayom)
Three weeks before Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli intelligence received information that Hizbullah, at Iran's direction, was planning to assassinate former Israeli Defense Minister and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. (res.) Moshe Ya'alon.
On Sep. 15, 2023, Ya'alon was planning to participate in a charity bike ride in Tel Aviv's Yarkon Park, as he had been doing for years. But before dawn, Israel Security Agency operatives told him he was not to leave the house.
At 6:30 a.m. a powerful Claymore-type explosive device detonated in Yarkon Park, planted beneath a tree on Ya'alon's planned riding route. Only by sheer luck was no one hurt.
With the help of security cameras, the ISA traced those who had planted the bomb and arrested them that same day.
The investigation found a skilled and well-equipped terrorist cell had been operating inside Israel, headed by Ibrahim Makhoul, an Israeli citizen, recruited by Hizbullah in an operation directed by figures in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
It later became clear that the same terrorist network had planned to assassinate another former senior security figure using an additional Claymore device, someone who held one of Ya'alon's former positions.
Israel Strikes Syrian Military Targets after Attacks on Druze Civilians - Tzvi Jasper ( Jerusalem Post)
The IDF attacked a command center and weapons in military bases belonging to the Syrian regime in southern Syria on Thursday night, in response to attacks on Druze civilians, the military announced on Friday.
"The IDF will not tolerate harm towards the Druze population in Syria and will continue to operate to defend them," a spokesperson stated.
Greek Patriot Air Defense System Intercepts Iranian Missiles in Saudi Arabia - Lefteris Papadimas ( Reuters)
A Greek-operated Patriot air defense system intercepted two Iranian missiles targeting oil refineries in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, Greece's Defense Minister Nikos Dendias said.
Greece has deployed a Patriot air defense battery, operated by Greek personnel, in Saudi Arabia since 2021 under an agreement to help protect the kingdom's energy infrastructure.
Arafat's Personal Assistant: Hamas Founder Ahmed Yassin Was on Our Payroll ( MEMRI)
Yasser Arafat's personal assistant, Mohammed Al-Dayeh, told Al-Arabiya on Nov. 15, 2025, that Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was on the payroll of the Palestinian Authority, saying his son collected his salary from Arafat's people.
Yassin's brother worked for the PA Ministry of Education and his son was also employed by the PA.
He asserted that Arafat approved anything Hamas needed.
How Iran's IRGC Rebooted Lebanon's Hizbullah to Be Ready for War - Laila Bassam ( Reuters)
Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) rebuilt Hizbullah's military command after it was mauled by Israel in 2024, plugging gaps with Iranian officers and laying plans for the war it is now waging in support of Tehran, two people familiar with these IRGC activities said.
Iran's investment paid off, getting Hizbullah back on its feet in time to enter the war on Tehran's side.
Israel's Elbit Has $28 Billion Backlog in Defense Orders ( Ynet News)
Elbit Systems reported an order backlog of $28.1 billion, fueled by growing demand for defense technologies.
Growth was driven primarily by land systems, including ammunition and munitions sales in Israel and Europe, as well as strong demand for electronic warfare, intelligence systems, and command-and-control technologies.
Elbit also said it invested more than $500 million in R&D in 2025, focusing on artificial intelligence and next-generation defense capabilities.
See also Israel's Defense Companies Report $80 Billion Backlog - Shiri Habib-Valdhorn ( Globes)
Public companies in the defense sector, together with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), have a huge orders backlog of over $80 billion.
IAI had an orders backlog of $29 billion at the end of 2025, compared with $25 billion at the end of 2024.
Several months ago Rafael had an orders backlog of $22 billion.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Iran Brings Europe into Range with Missiles Fired at Diego Garcia -
Shelby Holliday
When Iranian missile crews launched two of their largest weapons at the U.S.-UK Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away, they revealed the Islamic Republic had longer-range missiles than many analysts had realized. The attack early Friday was Iran's first-ever use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles that fly far enough to hit much of Europe.
As recently as last month, Iran's leaders were insisting they had limited their missile ranges to the equivalent of half the distance to Diego Garcia. By taking aim at Diego Garcia, Tehran has created a new security reality for Europe. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Iran Has Missiles that Can Reach Berlin, Paris and Rome
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said Saturday evening: "Iran launched a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 km. toward a U.S. target on the island of Diego Garcia. These missiles are not intended to strike Israel. Their range reaches European capitals - Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range."
"We have learned from world and Jewish history that denying a threat or appeasing it does not make it disappear. Those who fail to confront a threat at its outset will in the future become hostage to it. The possession of lethal strategic capabilities by radical, dictatorial regimes is a danger not only to Israel, but to the world."
Addressing the IDF operations in Lebanon, Zamir said, "There is no more containment. There is initiative and offense. Our forces will stand as a buffer between the enemy and the communities, and any target that poses a threat to them will be removed. Our actions in Iran are weakening Hizbullah." (Ynet News)
- Trump Gives Iran 48-Hour Ultimatum to Reopen Strait of Hormuz - Michael Sinkewicz
President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Saturday, "If Iran doesn't fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first!" (Fox News)
- Iran Firing Cluster Munitions at Israeli Civilians Is a War Crime - Steven Scheer
Iran has launched dozens of missiles with cluster munition warheads at Israel since the start of the war, posing a challenge for Israel's missile defense shield as they need to be hit before they split and disperse into smaller explosives.
After a couple in Tel Aviv were killed in their apartment by a single, cluster munition bomblet, Israeli military spokesperson Lt.-Col. Nadav Shoshani said, "This cluster bomb was fired by the Iranian regime towards a mass population center, firing dozens of rockets towards the civilians, deliberately targeting civilians. This is a war crime by the Iranian regime."
Shoshani said the military was doing all it could to intercept these missiles as "high up as possible" to minimize damage. Cluster munitions open in mid-air and scatter dozens of "bomblets" over a wide area. They often fail to explode, creating virtual minefields that can kill or injure anyone who finds them later.
The military has said half of the missiles fired from Iran have had cluster warheads. (Reuters)
See also Israeli Medics Confront Cluster Warheads - Gabriel Colodro
Chaim Rafalowski, disaster management coordinator of Magen David Adom, described the new operational reality Israeli emergency responders face from Iranian missiles carrying cluster warheads, which disperse multiple smaller bombs over a large geographical area. Instead of responding to one impact site, emergency teams may suddenly face incidents scattered across neighborhoods and towns.
"They spread over about 10 km.," Rafalowski said. "One such missile will give us...10, 12 scenes where the cluster bombs landed and exploded." For emergency services, that means dividing personnel, ambulances, and equipment across numerous locations at once. Bomblets that fail to detonate immediately can explode later. "It's a great safety issue for our personnel because they might step on something that could explode."
For emergency workers, the alarms that sound are a call to action. Many MDA volunteers keep ambulances at home and respond directly from their neighborhoods. "When the alarm goes off, they put their family in the shelter...they put on their helmet, their flak jacket, and wait for the dispatcher to call them." (Media Line-Jerusalem Post)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- One Killed by Rocket Fire near Lebanon Border on Sunday - Yair Kraus
Ofer Moskovitz, the avocado cultivation manager at Kibbutz Misgav Am, was killed Sunday morning when a rocket fired from Lebanon struck his vehicle near Israel's northern border.
(Ynet News)
- 88 Wounded, 10 Seriously, after Iranian Missile Strikes Arad
At least 88 people were wounded, including 10 in serious condition, after an Iranian missile with a 450-kg. (1,000-pound) warhead struck the Israeli city of Arad on Saturday night. An Arrow interceptor was launched at the Iranian missile but missed. Police said at least three buildings sustained significant damage. The missile impacted between buildings. (Ynet News)
See also Iranian Missile Strike Wounds 15 in Tel Aviv Area on Sunday (Ynet News)
- 34 Wounded in Iran Rocket Strike in Dimona
34 people were wounded in an Iranian missile strike on Dimona on Saturday, including a 10-year-old boy in critical condition.
Most of the injured were in light condition, hurt by fragments or while rushing to protected areas.
Earlier, dozens of rockets were launched by Hizbullah from Lebanon toward the Maalot-Tarshiha area, where two people were lightly wounded. (Ynet News)
- Iranian Rocket Strikes Kindergarten in Rishon Lezion
An Iranian cluster missile struck a kindergarten in the central Israel city of Rishon Lezion on Saturday morning, causing heavy damage. A major disaster was averted because no children were present at the time, as they would have been on any other day of the week.
(Ynet News)
- IDF Raids Hizbullah Hideouts in Lebanon
The IDF conducted raids on several Hizbullah sites in Lebanon, killing over ten terrorists and locating large amounts of weaponry, the military announced on Sunday.
(Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Iran Believes It's Winning and Wants a Steep Price to End the War - Yaroslav Trofimov
Three weeks into the war, the Iranian regime is signaling that it believes it is winning and has the power to impose a settlement on Washington that entrenches Tehran's dominance of Middle East energy resources for decades to come.
Despite optimistic U.S. and Israeli pronouncements, Iran has retained the ability to fire dozens of ballistic missiles, and many more drones, every day across the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf's chokepoint, remains only possible with Iranian permission. Surging oil and gas prices are exacting growing pain on economies worldwide.
Tehran has pledged that it will agree to a ceasefire only if Washington and the Gulf states pay a steep price. The spokesman of the Iranian Parliament's foreign affairs and defense committee, Ebrahim Rezaei, said any talks with the U.S. are off the agenda as Tehran "focuses on punishing the aggressors."
"This hubris is dangerous because they are not smart enough to understand that President Trump will never let them win. They don't understand how far he's willing to go," said Jason Greenblatt, who served as the White House special envoy for the Middle East. "The cost of not taking care of the problem will be many times more expensive over many, many years."
Demands voiced by Iranian leaders in recent days as conditions for ending the war include massive reparations from the U.S. and its allies and the expulsion of American military forces from the region. They have also called for transforming the Strait of Hormuz - an international waterway where free navigation is guaranteed under international law - into an Iranian toll booth controlling 1/3 of the world's shipborne crude oil. It is hard to imagine the U.S. - or the Gulf states - accepting such an arrangement. (Wall Street Journal)
- The Iranian Regime Has Suffered Irreversible Damage - Danny Zaken
Israeli assessments indicate that the U.S. is not expected to end the war before there is a clear understanding that its objectives have been achieved. A senior diplomatic source told Israel Hayom that the Iranian regime has suffered irreversible damage. Even if the war ended today, the source said, it would not return to what it was.
"Day by day, there are more defections across all branches of the regime's forces. In many peripheral areas, central authority no longer exists. The command structure is broken and control over forces has been severely damaged."
The British Royal Air Force has been operating since the early days of the war in defensive missions in several Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as in Jordan. RAF forces are responsible for a significant portion of the interceptions of missiles and drones launched by Iran toward Gulf states.
(Israel Hayom)
- Will Trump Finish the Job in Iran? - Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
The degradation of the Islamic Republic as a military and nuclear power has been enormous and is likely irreversible. It will take years, perhaps decades, for the clerical regime - if it survives - to rebuild. What seems accepted wisdom in Washington - that Iran wins in a longer war - is surely militarily untrue.
The Islamic Republic that emerges from this war will be a more ideologically strident regime that is even less skilled at governing. Iran is a collection of competing mafias, and the quest for spoils will likely intensify. The new guardians of the theocratic regime have no solutions to the country's problems. Iran's economic stagnation has worsened with a war that has devastated much of its infrastructure and may soon crater the oil industry. Its military is shattered and its treasury depleted.
The one certainty of Iranian politics is that there will be another popular insurrection. Large portions of all social classes remain united in their disdain for this regime. The correlation of forces still favors the mullahs, but the Americans and Israelis have given the Iranian people their best chance at regime change.
Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. (Wall Street Journal)
- Regime Change without Nation-Building - Jonathan Schanzer
America and Israel are at war with Iran. Both countries have been targeted by the Islamic Republic since its inception in 1979. Should American aims include using force to change regimes we believe violate the international order and pose a long-term threat to us and to the West?
Not all regime change is bad or disastrous. The U.S. has overthrown more than three dozen hostile regimes in modern history. Some have been remarkable successes. The defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 and its unconditional surrender led to the emergence of Germany as a stable and democratic European ally. Similarly, the defeat of Imperial Japan in 1945 led to a democratic Japan that is one of Washington's most important Asian allies.
In 1983, U.S. forces entered Grenada, defeated the Grenadian military and Cuban forces on the island, and supported constitutional elections in 1984 that restored civilian democratic rule. In 1986, the U.S. toppled Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos after fraudulent elections that rocked the country. In 1989, the U.S. removed Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. More recently, America toppled the dictator of Venezuela, a narco-state that undermined American security and national interests in South America.
Admittedly, not all regime change efforts have ended well. Iraq and Afghanistan are America's ultimate regime-change failures. In the case of Afghanistan, the war was just; the Taliban sheltered al-Qaeda leaders before the 9/11 attacks. President George W. Bush's error was trying to forge Afghanistan into a flourishing democracy. Bush made the same error in Iraq. Regime change was hard in both Iraq and Afghanistan due to the interference of Iran, which provided training and material support for Iraqi militias and enabled deadly attacks against American troops.
History is replete with American regime-change experiments that did not bankrupt America and did not thrust it into a forever war.
The writer is executive director of Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
(Commentary)
- Iran Is on the Brink of Collapse - Con Coughlin
One by one, the architects of Iran's brutal Islamic dictatorship are being eliminated in a war the ayatollahs have absolutely no prospect of winning. The edifice of the regime that has terrorized the Iranian people for nearly five decades is being destroyed.
This is no time for world leaders to lose their nerve. On the contrary, when all the key indices suggest the respective American and Israeli military campaigns are achieving their objectives, this is a moment to demonstrate resolve by seeing the war through to its logical conclusion - the destruction of the Islamic regime and the eradication of the threat posed by its nuclear program. (Telegraph-UK)
Israeli Resilience
- Israeli Resilience amid War with Iran - Editorial
From the earliest days of the state, when Arab armies crossed the border the day after independence was declared, Israelis have lived with the understanding that normal life and national emergency are connected.
Few societies in the West have lived with sustained, existential threats overhead, where daily life continues under the possibility of incoming missiles. In Israel, it is familiar.
For decades, Israel has invested in the systems that keep its people alive. Through reinforced safe rooms in homes, public shelters in every neighborhood, a layered missile defense network, intelligence capabilities that reach far beyond its borders, and an air force trained for precisely these scenarios, Israel does its best to keep its citizens safe.
Israelis can disagree with each other, often loudly, about almost everything. Yet when faced with an external threat, a coming together is hard to miss. Support for the Iran operation runs deep, cutting across many of the usual lines. For many, there is a shared sense that this moment demands endurance. If Iran can be dealt with as it needs to be, then in the long term, we will all be better for it. That is Israeli resilience.
(Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- The regime in Iran continues to function and fight, largely because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively taken control of the state and is directing the war effort.
- Both Israel and the U.S. seek to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, ideally permanently, and to deny it the ability to develop and produce ballistic missiles and drones in quantities and sophistication that no defense system could counter. These are the two existential threats the war is meant to eliminate, at least for years, even if the current regime survives.
- Israel is acting across multiple channels to create conditions in which the Iranian people will want and be able to take control of their fate. Efforts to weaken the regime include targeted strikes against security officials and political leaders, and attacks on Basij and Revolutionary Guard facilities.
- Israeli officials report results including defections, particularly among Basij members. At the same time, efforts are underway to organize opposition groups and encourage public protests. According to informed sources, these efforts are beginning to bear fruit.
- Iran has learned lessons from previous confrontations and prepared well for the current war. It dispersed its military assets geographically and granted local commanders authority to act based on pre-set directives. It moved critical assets underground, including nuclear laboratories, ballistic missiles and launchers, drones, and even fast attack boats. Iran also divided the country into 31 ballistic missile commands, each with independent launch authority. Iran has also moved much of its nuclear weapons program infrastructure underground.
- Israel is targeting Iran's missile, launcher, and drone production infrastructure spread across the country. The air force will likely need at least two more weeks to achieve a satisfactory level of damage. Meanwhile, interception rates by Israel's air defense systems have risen from over 85% to more than 90%.
- In both Iran and Lebanon, significant achievements have already been made. But for the war's objectives to be largely fulfilled and for those gains to endure for years, more time is required.
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