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In-Depth Issues:
Iran's Supreme Leader Is Holed Up in Undisclosed Location, U.S. Intelligence Says
- Jennifer Jacobs ( CBS News)
U.S. intelligence shows that Iran's supreme leader is effectively holed up in an undisclosed location with little access to the outside world and is only reached by a labyrinth of couriers, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
The Iranian officials authorized to work with the Trump administration have been having a difficult time communicating inside of their own government system - and it's a central reason why the details of a potential deal with Iran and past agreements have been slow to emerge.
At this point, most Iranian leaders don't see daylight, spending weeks inside highly fortified bunkers and avoiding speaking to each other unless absolutely necessary, the sources said. "Watching them try to figure out how to talk to each other is almost like watching a sitcom. They are completely exasperated," one official said.
The most cautious measures are being taken by the supreme leader. By design, even officials at the highest levels of the Iranian government don't know where he is and have no way to contact him directly.
Fatah Conference Pushes Gaza to the Margins
- Yoni Ben Menachem ( Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
Fatah's eighth Conference concluded on May 16, 2026, after three days of deliberations. Senior Fatah officials in Gaza say that the conference, convened under the shadow of the devastating war in the Strip and the deepening crisis within the Palestinian political system, failed to offer a new political vision or create any sense of renewal within the movement.
There were hopes that Fatah's leadership would attempt to rebuild its relationship with the public in Gaza and grant the Strip more meaningful representation within the movement's institutions. In practice, however, the opposite occurred.
The centers of influence remained firmly in the hands of senior figures aligned with the ruling camp headquartered in the Muqata in Ramallah, while representatives from Gaza were pushed to relatively marginal positions.
The conference showed the weakened standing of Hussein al-Sheikh, currently regarded as a leading contender in the battle over the post-Abbas era, after he finished only fourth in the Central Committee elections. At the same time, the emergence of Yasser Abbas, the son of the PA president, drew considerable attention after he entered the Central Committee for the first time, securing the eighth position in the body.
Jewish Leader Leaves Country after 'Losing Faith in Britain'
- Joe Burgis ( Telegraph - UK)
The former head of the United Synagogue charity says he no longer feels safe walking in London. Jeremy Jacobs has put his family home up for sale and is "making arrangements to start a life in Israel. When I walk around London with my kippah on, I'm always fearful because should someone attack me, I can't be sure if anybody would come to my defense," he said.
To Mr. Jacobs, the rise in antisemitism is a predictable symptom of national failure: "When a country is in financial difficulty, as Britain undoubtedly is, the establishment looks for somebody to blame. That's what's happening here. The Jews will always be blamed because of the antisemitic trope that we control the money." By contrast, Israel offers the kind of unity and security that Britain seems to have surrendered.
UK's Royal Navy Prepares to Clear Mines in Strait of Hormuz as Trump's Iran Deal Nears
- Matt Atherton ( Mirror - UK)
The Royal Navy's RFA Lyme Bay is on standby in Gibraltar, ready to lead an international mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz once a US-Iran peace deal is finalized - as at least 6,000 ships remain blocked from the vital shipping lane.
The ship will shortly leave Gibraltar to rendezvous with the UK destroyer HMS Dragon and partner vessels for aerial coverage before navigating through the Suez Canal towards the Persian Gulf.
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News Resources - North America and Europe:
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U.S. Conducted 'Defensive' Attacks on Iranian Targets, Officials Say
Tensions rose as the U.S. sank two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran responded by launching surface-to-air missiles at U.S. planes, prompting American attacks on missile launchers near Bandar Abbas, a U.S. official said. "U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire," said a spokesman for the command. (Wall Street Journal)
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CENTCOM Struck Iran on Arafah Day - Saudi Arabia Wasn't Warned
- Mohammed Omar
US Central Command's attack against Iranian missile launch sites and two IRGC fast boats near Bandar Abbas on May 25-26 was the second major American military action since the April ceasefire, and the first to fall inside Saudi Arabia's 96-hour Hajj no-escalation window.
Saudi Arabia had lobbied Washington to hold fire during the pilgrimage, presenting a unified Gulf front with Qatar and the UAE and warning of "serious reputational damage." Trump was reportedly "about an hour away" from authorizing earlier strikes when Gulf leaders intervened. The intervention delayed the timeline. It did not produce a guarantee. On Arafah Day - while more than 1.5 million pilgrims gathered on the 33-square-kilometer plain for what Islamic tradition regards as the holiest hours of the calendar year - CENTCOM acted. (House of Saud)
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Trump Asked Muslim Leaders to Join Abraham Accords after Iran War Ends
- Barak Ravid
President Trump told leaders of several Arab and other Muslim countries during a Saturday conference call that if a deal to end the Iran war is achieved, then he wants their nations to sign peace agreements with Israel.
Trump told the leaders that after the war with Iran, he expects all of them who are still not part of the Abraham Accords or don't have peace agreements with Israel to join and normalize relations with the Jewish state, two U.S. officials said.
The leaders, especially those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan, who don't have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, were surprised by Trump's request. (Axios)
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Senate Republicans Cast Doubt on a Potential Peace Deal with Iran
- Minho Kim
Senate Republicans cast doubt on the viability of a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran over the weekend as President Trump doubled down in support of his administration's negotiations to end the nearly three-month-old war.
Some of the president's closest allies have expressed misgivings. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, wrote on social media on Saturday that striking a peace deal now would fuel the perception that the United States was recognizing Iran as a dominant force "requiring a diplomatic solution," calling such an outcome "a nightmare for Israel."
Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, said he was "deeply concerned" about the prospective deal, calling any outcome in which Iran retained control of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to enrich uranium "a disastrous mistake."
Senate Democrats, for their part, also joined in with critiques on Sunday. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey said on CNN that the president was "being played as a fool," while Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland called the emerging framework "a return to the prewar status quo." (New York Times)
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Iran Appears Set to Restore Internet Access after 3-months Blackout
Internet access in Iran appeared headed for restoration Monday as President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered a rollback of months-long restrictions, and an IRGC-affiliated outlet appeared to fall in line behind the decision after initially questioning its legality.
Earlier in the day, Pezeshkian ordered the Ministry of Communications to restore international internet access to its pre-January status, according to his spokesman. (Iran International)
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Khamenei Says U.S. Military Bases in Middle East No Longer Safe
Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said Tuesday that the war with the United States had shown that American military bases in the Middle East are no longer safe, after Iran repeatedly targeted those sites in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes.
"The hands of time do not turn backward, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases," Mr. Khamenei said in a written statement marking the start of the Hajj pilgrimage, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca. (New York Times)
News Resources - Israel, the Mideast, and Asia:
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Netanyahu Orders IDF to 'Intensify Blows' against Hizbullah amid Surge in Drone Attacks
- Nava Freiberg
Israel will escalate strikes against Hizbullah in Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, as a U.S. official said the terror group had ignored warnings to halt firing at Israel in a conflict that could threaten US-Iran negotiations.
Lebanese security sources said people had begun fleeing the southern suburbs of Beirut, a known Hizbullah stronghold, for fear of a renewed Israeli assault on the capital.
In Israel, local leaders in communities along the northern border announced that schools would be shut on Tuesday and until further notice.
A senior U.S. official indicated on Monday, amid a surge in drone attacks targeting Israel, that Washington could soon greenlight a larger Israeli operation against Hizbullah in Lebanon. (Times of Israel)
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Rubio Says Israel Has 'Every Right' to Respond to Hizbullah Attacks
Rubio told reporters that "Israel always has a right to protect itself."
"If Hizbullah is going to launch missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that, or to prevent that from happening," he said. "That's always been understood. It's being understood during the ceasefire." (Naharnet - Lebanon)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
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The War with Iran Is Opening Old Wounds
- Simon Mabon
In recent years, sectarian tensions in the Middle East have largely been put to one side, aided by the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalization agreement that restored diplomatic relations, which had been severed after the execution of the Saudi Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in 2016.
In April, 69 Bahrainis had their citizenship revoked for what Manama's interior ministry referred to as "glorifying or sympathizing with hostile Iranian acts, or engaging in contacts with external parties." In Kuwait, thousands of individuals also had their citizenship revoked for social media posts. In the UAE, an "Iran-linked" terror plot was dismantled by state security forces who, on Arabic news channels, referred to it as a Shia plot. Increasingly, the Gulf's Shia populations are being forced to choose between membership in their sect and their nationality.
Simon Mabon is the author of Schism: The Story of Sectarianism in the Modern Middle East (Yale University). He is a professor of international politics at Lancaster University. (Arab Weekly)
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Pakistan and the Abraham Accords
The latest remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to broaden the diplomatic momentum generated by the Iran ceasefire into a wider political realignment involving the Abraham Accords, reveal a familiar impulse in American foreign policy. Washington often seeks to convert immediate tactical successes into grand strategic redesigns of regions. Yet, in this case, such ambitions run into a political and historical reality that is difficult to ignore. Pakistan is not a blank slate on the question of Israel and Palestine.
Since 1948, Pakistan's position has remained remarkably consistent. It rests on the recognition of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and support for an independent Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders, with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital. This is not merely a foreign policy preference. It has become embedded in political consensus, constitutional thinking, and public sentiment.
Until there is movement on the Palestinian question in line with Pakistan's stated position, any attempt to pursue normalization with Israel would carry serious political costs. (The Nation - Pakistan)
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Hormuz Blockage Is Forging a New Overland Energy Map for the Middle East
- Hadley Gamble
The closure of vital sea lanes that were just months ago crucial arteries of global commerce has also prompted a rethink of how to get the world's most vital products to market, unleashing a massive reorganization of energy and trade routes that could fundamentally remake the economic map of the Middle East.
The realignment of supply chains that sidesteps much of the existing infrastructure may open up overland corridors that could see Gulf governments forge new, critical economic partnerships with their neighbors. If it holds, the region will emerge less dependent on Hormuz's narrow chokepoint and more integrated.
These land routes cannot replace maritime shipping capacity, but they absorb shocks and keep core flows moving. (National - UAE)
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Evolving Warfare Connects the Conflicts in Ukraine and Iran
- Lara Jakes
Asymmetrical tactics have helped both Ukraine and Iran hold off stronger forces with which they could not compete in a conventional military confrontation.
Iran, for instance, struck at the United States by attacking its allies. It instilled fear in Persian Gulf states by sending one-way attack drones to hit military bases and energy facilities in countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It has also used the threat of mines and small armed speedboats to keep a chokehold on the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
Ukraine has assassinated Russian military officials in Moscow and regularly struck oil facilities, the lifeblood of the Russian economy. It has also used sea drones to neutralize Russia's much bigger Black Sea navy.
Russian anti-jamming equipment was found in an Iranian drone targeting a British base in Cyprus in March. The two conflicts demonstrate how innovation and technology are reshaping warfare. (New York Times)
Observations:
Trump's Iran Exit Ramp Is a Long Shot. He Doesn't Have a Better Option.
- David Ignatius ( Washington Post) - President Donald Trump appears to be nearing an escape ramp from the Iran war, but it's one that represents a risky bet that Tehran's divided leadership will opt for postwar modernization rather than continuing conflict with the United States and Israel.
- Trump's baseline is that Iranian leaders "must understand … that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb," as he put it in a Truth Social post Sunday. But the devil is in the details. Iran hasn't publicly agreed to give up its "right to enrich," and after this war, its desire for a nuclear deterrent will probably be as strong as ever.
- The Trump team believes that global energy prices will decline quickly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. One official said the ships now stranded in the Persian Gulf are carrying 150 million barrels of oil; as that oil heads to market, prices will ease, the official predicted.
- The Trump team has been playing what amounts to a game of thrones with the fragmented elements of Iran's new leadership. They've reached out to a range of Iranian officials, including some senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, using contacts developed by key intermediaries.
- The Trump team's pitch has focused on the economic opportunities that would follow a settlement. This vision of a modern, prosperous country would delight most Iranians. But it's anathema to many hard-liners, who since 1979 have feared that modernization will undermine the revolution. The mullahs worry about "cultural contamination" from the West that will weaken Islamic values.
- As one source involved in war planning put it, "We have the capability to bomb anything. But what can we do that will change Iranian decision-making?" The bet that triumphal IRGC cadres and their regime allies will join in building a modern state is a long shot. But Trump doesn't appear to have any better options available.
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