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In-Depth Issues:
Iran Is on Its Knees and Can't Demand Anything Significant - Con Coughlin ( Telegraph-UK)
No matter how hard the Iranians pretend they have the upper hand in negotiations to end hostilities with the U.S., the inescapable reality is that the ayatollahs desperately need to seal a deal - and quickly - if the Islamic Republic is to stand any chance of surviving.
Iran's basket-case economy has collapsed almost entirely as a result of the 40-day war with the U.S. and Israel.
The regime imposing a nationwide internet black-out to disrupt the activities of anti-government protesters has not helped matters either, with 6% of Iran's GDP relying on the digital economy.
It is self-evident that the Iranian regime is clearly on its knees, and in no position to demand any significant concessions from the Trump administration in the ongoing negotiations to end the conflict.
Yet, judging from recent comments by prominent Western commentators, there is a widespread view that Iran not only has the upper hand in the talks, but is well within its rights to impose its own restrictions on commercial shipping using the Strait of Hormuz, even though the waterway is recognized as an international passage under the laws of the sea.
It is inconceivable that Trump would agree to a deal with Tehran that resulted in Iran assuming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Nor will the president tolerate any nuclear agreement that provides Tehran with even the slightest window to resume work on its clandestine nuclear weapons program.
Iran Bluffs Like a Winner - Haggai Carmon ( Times of Israel)
Iran's economy is battered, its currency has collapsed, inflation is crushing ordinary citizens, and years of sanctions combined with war damage have left the country economically exhausted.
Yet Tehran negotiates with the U.S. like a confident winner dictating terms.
Iran is holding a dramatically inferior hand. But it keeps raising the stakes, staring into the eyes of its opponents and betting that they will blink first.
On paper, Iran should already have collapsed, yet it remains standing. In Iranian strategic culture, endurance itself becomes a form of victory.
Surviving pressure, refusing surrender, and projecting defiance are presented internally as proof of strength.
Iran negotiates from weakness while attempting to project psychological strength. It is classic brinkmanship.
But brinkmanship becomes dangerous when the bluffing player starts believing his own bluff. Iran's current economic trajectory is not sustainable indefinitely.
In poker, weak players sometimes survive simply by convincing stronger opponents that they are willing to push the game further than anyone expected. That is Iran today.
How to Deal with "Pro-Palestine" Hecklers - Andy Preston ( Spiked-UK)
As Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition in the UK, addressed the recent stabbing of two Jewish men in Golders Green and the UK's antisemitism crisis, she was heckled and interjected by a pro-Palestine protester.
But she kept saying that the threat faced by British Jews was unique and extreme until the heckler ran out of steam.
Within 48 hours, the video on X had amassed more than 1.8 million views.
Human Relations Commission in California Attacks Jews and "Zionists" - Rabbi Pini Dunner ( New York Post)
The Davis, California, Human Relations Commission produced what it calls the "MAPA Report" earlier this year, which focuses on the local experiences of Muslims, Arabs, Palestinians, and their "allies" (hence the acronym).
This is not a document about protecting a vulnerable community. It singles out another, far more vulnerable, one.
The report systematically casts the Jewish community - particularly those associated with Israel or Zionism - as a primary source of harm.
The report incorporates a series of extreme and inflammatory claims about Jews and "Zionists," claiming that Davis is being influenced by "a small group of ultra-nationalist and supremacist Jews who were creating havoc for the city."
Imagine if a city-sponsored report included comparable language about any other minority group. It would be rightly dismissed as bigoted. Here, it is presented as insight.
The report repeatedly relies on the concept of the "weaponization of antisemitism."
If antisemitism is a "weapon," then those who report it are not victims - they are the villains.
And if raising awareness about antisemitism is itself suspect, then antisemitism becomes impossible to prove.
This report lays the groundwork for training programs and civic policies based on a newly constructed concept of "Anti-Palestinian Racism," a framework that risks equating support for Israel - or even expressions of Jewish identity tied to Israel - with bigotry.
This is happening in Davis - a city that prides itself on being educated, thoughtful, and morally serious.
You do not combat one form of prejudice by encouraging another. You do not build inclusion by scapegoating a minority. And you certainly do not promote justice by distorting reality.
The writer is senior rabbi at Beverly Hills Synagogue.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- The UAE Has Been Secretly Carrying Out Attacks on Iran - Summer Said
The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran, people familiar with the matter said. Its military is well-equipped with Western-made jet fighters and surveillance networks. The strikes, which the UAE hasn't publicly acknowledged, have included an attack on a refinery on Iran's Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf in early April.
Iran launched a barrage of missile and drone strikes against the UAE and Kuwait at the time in response. The U.S. quietly welcomed the participation of the UAE and any other Gulf states that want to join in the fight, one source said.
Iran has focused much of its fire on the UAE, targeting it with more than 2,800 missiles and drones - far more than any other country, including Israel. The attacks prompted a fundamental shift in the country's strategic outlook. U.S. Air Force Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Dave Deptula said, "If you have that capable of an air force, why would you sit back and absorb attacks from Iran without responding?" (Wall Street Journal)
- The Radical Iranian Hardliners Bent on Sabotaging a Deal with the U.S. - Mostafa Salem
A small but influential hardline Iranian faction has intensified efforts to sabotage a potential deal with Washington.
The Endurance Front (Jebhe-ye Paydari) has ramped up efforts across the media, in parliament and on the streets to advocate against an agreement with the U.S., arguing that only by defeating Washington can Iran secure a favorable deal. One of its most prominent figures - former national security chief Saeed Jalili - garnered 13 million votes in the 2024 elections, finishing second.
"They view resistance against the United States and Israel as an eternal fight," Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN. "They believe in a Shia state that needs to continue until the end of times and are quite fanatic when it comes to that religious ideology."
The group's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Mahdi Mirbaqiri, harbors "apocalyptic views," Azizi said, and wants to hasten the end of times by encouraging "widespread fighting" and a "comprehensive clash" with the West, according to an interview he gave state media in 2019.
(CNN)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- IDF Reservist Killed by Explosive Drone inside Israel near Lebanon Border - Bar Peleg
Master Sgt. (res.) Alexander Glovanyov, 47, a transport vehicle driver, was killed on Sunday by an explosive drone inside Israel near the Lebanon border, the IDF said.
(Ha'aretz)
- Knesset Passes Law to Try Oct. 7 Terrorists in Court - Amir Ettinger
Israel's Knesset on Monday approved a law enabling the prosecution of Nukhba terrorists, passing 93-0. The law establishes a special military court in Jerusalem for the largest and most significant trials in Israel since the 1961 trial of Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann.
The law defines acts committed between Oct. 7 and Oct. 10, 2023, as crimes against the Jewish people, crimes against humanity and war crimes, including murder, rape, kidnapping and looting. It also applies to offenses committed after those dates against hostages held in Gaza, including those killed in captivity.
Indictments are expected against more than 400 suspects. Trials will be organized by geographic locations, such as the attacks in Be'eri, Nir Oz and the Nova music festival. Following the law's approval, prosecutors
are expected to begin filing indictments based on extensive evidence collected during and after the attacks.
The evidence includes interrogation transcripts of captured Nukhba terrorists and hundreds of videos documenting the atrocities. Much of the material was gathered during combat operations in Gaza. In most hearings, defendants will not be physically present in the courtroom but will participate via video from detention facilities. Legal officials estimate that the trials, which are expected to be broadcast internationally, could last several years. (Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- On the Way to an Agreement with Iran? - Oded Ailam
The regime in Tehran now finds itself at a crossroads. Refusing to compromise could trigger a harsh American response, possibly even in the form of a broad surgical attack on energy infrastructure while maintaining the naval blockade. In such a scenario, damage to power stations, oil fields, and desalination facilities could rapidly destabilize Iran's economy.
Deep skepticism surrounds the option of a possible nuclear agreement. The concern is that Iran would continue advancing its nuclear program behind the scenes while exploiting sanctions relief, in order to achieve a form of nuclear immunity similar to that of Pakistan or North Korea, a reality in which possession of nuclear weapons itself deters any external attack.
The complexity is compounded by the nature of the Iranian leadership in which the Revolutionary Guards play a central role. These actors often operate from a deeply ideological worldview inspired by the Battle of Karbala in the 7th century, a symbol of total sacrifice even in the face of impossible odds. In such a reality, death is not necessarily viewed as failure, but as a virtue.
This mindset complicates negotiations conducted in Western terms of cost versus benefit. While the West tends to approach such matters through cold calculation, parts of the leadership in Tehran see them as a bargaining tool grounded also in a willingness for extreme sacrifice.
Still, if Iran succeeds in reaching an agreement that leads to the lifting of sanctions, even partially, it could secure a major strategic achievement. The injection of billions of dollars into the domestic economy would provide the regime with vital breathing room, stabilize the internal system, and enable a gradual return to its long-term objectives.
The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
- Who Has the Upper Hand in Iran? - Maj. (ret.) John Spencer
One of the strangest habits in modern war analysis is how quickly survival gets confused with victory. Iran has not collapsed overnight. The regime still broadcasts threats, launches missiles and drones, and floods television and social media with declarations of imagined strength. Much of the analysis mistakes continued existence for strategic success and ignores nearly every measurable indicator of national power.
Wars are judged through military capability, economic endurance, political cohesion, freedom of action, strategic leverage, and the ability to sustain power while degrading an opponent's. By those standards, Iran is substantially weaker today than it was before the war began. The foundations of Iranian power have been systematically reduced in ways that will take years to rebuild, if they can be rebuilt at all.
The scale of military destruction alone is extraordinary. Much of the senior leadership structure that spent decades constructing Iran's regional military network is dead, including senior IRGC commanders, missile force leaders, intelligence officials, nuclear scientists, operational planners, and even the Supreme Leader himself. Nuclear facilities that represented decades of investment now sit buried under rubble. Its missile enterprise has suffered similar devastation. Large portions of the Iranian Navy and IRGC maritime forces were destroyed.
The debate over the Strait of Hormuz reflects a broader misunderstanding about power. By openly threatening the world economy through coercion, Iran reinforced for regional governments and global powers why the regime can never again be allowed to hold that level of leverage unchecked. Governments that once viewed Iran as a difficult but necessary regional power increasingly see it as the primary source of instability threatening economic growth and long-term security.
Some analysts continue to argue that because Iran can still fire missiles, threaten shipping, or survive politically, the U.S. is strategically cornered and desperate for an exit. That argument confuses the ability to inflict pain with the ability to achieve strategic success. Those narratives avoid confronting the measurable destruction Iran has suffered, and the strategic value of preventing a terrorist regime from reaching a threshold in nuclear weapons capability and missile production. They also dismiss the importance of degrading a state that spent decades funding terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East.
The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at West Point's Modern War Institute.
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- The Gulf Countries Are Building a Middle East that Iran Cannot Tolerate - Jason Greenblatt
For decades, Iran's leadership has opposed the direction much of the Gulf has taken politically, economically and diplomatically. Today, that opposition is increasingly being expressed through direct attacks on the states' infrastructure and way of life. Since Feb. 28, the Iranian regime has launched 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles and 2,260 drones at the UAE.
The Iranian regime presents its model as the only legitimate form of Islamic governance. Yet, Gulf states have demonstrated that economic growth, global engagement, and religious life can develop together without the same degree of state control.
The UAE also made a decision to establish formal relations with Israel, altering a long-standing regional dynamic and showing that countries in the Middle East can pursue different paths, grounded in national interest and the pursuit of long-term stability and prosperity. It also introduced a precedent that runs directly against Iran's effort to organize the region around confrontation and war.
Iran's conflict with the Gulf extends beyond military confrontation. The UAE stands in direct opposition to Iran's broader ambitions. A country that represents economic openness, stability and independent decision-making challenges the narrative that the Iranian regime promotes about how the Middle East must function.
What Iran is trying to damage has not broken under sustained attack, and I do not believe it ever will.
The writer is a former White House Middle East envoy.
(The National-UAE)
Israeli Security
- Dr. Yuval Steinitz: Technological Superiority Led to Israeli Victory in Iran War
Dr. Yuval Steinitz, chairman of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, told a Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs briefing on Monday that "40,000 rockets and missiles were launched at Israel from Lebanon and Gaza alone. Iron Dome intercepted the overwhelming majority of them with a success rate close to 99%."
Without Iron Dome, Israel's major cities would have faced massive civilian casualties, economic paralysis, and severe disruption to daily life and military operations. "There is no parallel technology in the world," Steinitz said, describing Iron Dome as the only system capable of intercepting short- and medium-range rockets, mortar shells, and artillery fire at this scale.
Steinitz described the phases of Israel's Iran campaign, beginning with the elimination of senior Iranian military leadership. Nearly 40 top commanders from the Revolutionary Guards and the regular Iranian army were killed "in less than 10 seconds." "The speed was critical. If it had taken 10 minutes instead of 10 seconds, commanders would have escaped to bunkers and the achievement would have been impossible."
The second phase focused on achieving air superiority over Iran within 36 hours, allowing the Israeli Air Force to operate freely against nuclear and missile infrastructure while defending Israel against ballistic missile attacks.
"For the first time in history, two countries fought each other directly from distances of 1,000 to 3,000 km....The main factor was scientific and technological superiority," he said, noting that while Iran rapidly adapted and improved its systems during the war, "we ran even faster, and the end result is very clear....I don't know a better example of a crystal-clear victory in the modern world than the war between Israel and Iran....The regime was dramatically weakened."
Regarding the impact of strikes against Iran's nuclear program, Steinitz said: "We destroyed most of the enrichment sites and almost all of the weaponization infrastructure." While Iran still possesses enriched uranium stockpiles and the scientific knowledge to enrich further, key components of the nuclear weapons program were severely damaged, including testing facilities, conversion infrastructure, and personnel involved in weaponization.
In his assessment, before the war Iran could have reached a nuclear weapon within months. "Now, it will take them between two to four years to rebuild everything and produce a real nuclear weapon."
(JNS-X)
See also Steinitz: Israel Not Short of Missile Interceptors - Stav Levaton
Yuval Steinitz, chair of Israeli defense firm Rafael, said Monday that Iran has fired about 1,500 ballistic missiles at Israel in two rounds of fighting since 2024 and "only several dozen" were not intercepted. He said the country is not facing a shortage of missile interceptors. (Times of Israel)
U.S.-Israel Relations
- I'm a Democrat. My Party Has a Double Standard on Israel. - Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)
In April, most Senate Democrats voted for two measures that would have blocked sales of military equipment to Israel, with some arguing that among the reasons for their votes was their assessment of Israel's human rights record.
Is this turnabout a legitimate departure from decades of American foreign policy? Or - more likely - is it a politically convenient stance that coincides with a small but vocal and growing segment of the political left making opposition to support for Israel a new litmus test?
If this is now the standard for supporting military aid and arms sales, then Democratic members of Congress should at least be consistent. Do they also believe we should block weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, given the history of human rights abuses in those countries?
The Democratic condemnation piled on Israel's government is overwhelming in comparison to other allies. It's also louder than Democrats' condemnation of Iran's regime for the slaughter of thousands of Iranians in December and January. Israel has been decried by some leading Democrats as an "apartheid" state. But I haven't heard any of them claim apartheid when it comes to how women and LGBTQ people are treated across the Middle East. (New York Times)
Palestinian Arabs
- Inside the Battle over the "Settler Violence" Narrative - Josh Hasten
According to a range of Israeli officials, experts, military sources and activists, accusations of Israeli "settler violence" against Arabs in Judea and Samaria are part of a long-running, well-funded and coordinated campaign aimed at delegitimizing the State of Israel and its residents in the region. None of the sources denied that Jewish violence exists, but said it is less widespread than portrayed in the media, involves fewer incidents than reported, is broadly condemned, and is carried out by a relatively small number of individuals.
IDF reservist Yoni Tokayer told JNS he was on patrol near Jerusalem last fall when a report came in that a group of Arabs was approaching three teenage Jewish shepherds who were out with their flocks. Tokayer rushed to the scene, found that the threat was real, got out of his jeep and fired a warning shot into the air, successfully dispersing the mob.
Seconds later, a car with Palestinian Authority license plates arrived and an Arab instructed three children to get out of the car and lie on the ground, pretending they had been injured. An accomplice began filming the "wounded" children, and a short time later, the video was posted to Arab media channels on Telegram with accusations of an attack by settlers, he said.
Naomi Linder Kahn, director of Regavim's International Division, told JNS that her NGO had
studied 6,000 reports of alleged settler violence published by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Regavim found that 98% of OCHA's reported incidents either did not involve violence, did not involve settlers, or did not take place in Judea and Samaria. Events classified as settler violence by OCHA included Jewish visits to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, schoolchildren visiting ancient archaeological sites such as Shiloh and Herodion, and car accidents involving Jews and Arabs.
Yisrael Ganz, chairman of the Yesha Council of local authorities in Judea and Samaria, told JNS
that police and Israel Security Agency statistics from the past 12 months show 6,000 attacks by Palestinian Arabs targeting Jews, compared to 90 incidents of serious violence by Jews. (JNS)
See also The "Settler Violence" Influence Warfare Campaign - Col. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni and Brig.-Gen. (res.) Erez Winner (Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security)
Observations:
An interview with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was broadcast on CBS News' "60 Minutes" on Sunday.
- The most important thing for people to understand in America is that Iran declares not merely death to Israel but death to America; that's what they want to achieve. They not only want to kill Americans, which they have killed and wounded by the thousands, they're committed to destroy America.
- Their commitment involved their plans over the years to build nuclear bombs and the means to deliver them to the United States. They were very close to developing a nuclear bomb. In fact, if we hadn't done the two military operations that we did, they'd have a bomb now or within a month or two.
- You don't want a fanatic regime that hates America, that has no compunction about murdering tens of thousands of its own citizens, to have nuclear weapons. That's what prompted President Trump and me to go out and stop them. It amazes me, frankly, that people ask, "What is the purpose of this war?" The point is not to let a regime committed to the destruction of the U.S. and Israel have nuclear weapons.
- Remember, Iran was surrounding us with a noose of death, of simultaneous invasions from Gaza, from Hamas, and from Lebanon by Hizbullah. We were going to be rocketed and pelted with ballistic missiles that would destroy our cities. Iran would have atomic weapons to destroy us.
- We smashed the terror axis. It's not finished. We still have work to do. But it's clear that Israel has emerged as the most powerful country in the Middle East. We have a partnership with the U.S. that is second to none. The national security memorandum that was issued a few months ago described Israel as the "model ally" of the U.S.
- Now, all power is relative. Iran hasn't disappeared. Hizbullah hasn't disappeared. Hamas hasn't disappeared. But they're in many ways a shadow of their former selves. They certainly don't threaten us now with annihilation. The fact that we faced down this neighborhood bully, this killer regime in Iran, that's brought quite a few of the Arab countries closer together with Israel. That's good for peace.
- We were able to perform miracles because of the strength of the people. This tiny country emerged like a giant, to fight for its life. At the moment of truth, we stood together against these barbarians, and we're fighting the battle of civilization against the barbarians, who couldn't give a hoot about human rights and who tear out the hearts. I just saw this in Syria by these Islamists. They tear out the heart of a Druze man and they eat the heart. And you could say, "Well, okay, everything's relative." No, it's not. This is evil, pure evil. And if we don't muster the will, the resolve to stand up to this evil, then we don't have a future.
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