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In-Depth Issues:
Netanyahu: Israel Will Not Withdraw from Gaza Lines until Hamas Fully Disarms ( Ynet News)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday, "We will not withdraw from our current lines until Hamas is completely disarmed," rejecting a draft proposal by the U.S.
Earlier Tuesday, Israeli forces in Gaza received new instructions limiting attacks to strikes required to eliminate immediate threats.
The directive followed a request by Board of Peace Director-General Nikolay Mladenov for Israel to halt attacks for two weeks to allow negotiations with Hamas to be completed.
Israel, Gulf States Pursue Secret Energy Corridor to Bypass Hormuz - Danny Zaken ( Israel Hayom)
Israel and several Gulf states have been holding talks to advance routes for transporting Gulf oil and natural gas while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen told Israel Hayom.
One immediate option would involve unloading oil from tankers departing the western Saudi port of Yanbu at the Port of Eilat. The oil would then be transported through the existing pipeline to Ashkelon and shipped across the Mediterranean to export destinations.
Long-term proposals include constructing pipelines from the Gulf to the Jordanian port of Aqaba and from there to Eilat.
Germany Delivers Israel's Biggest-Ever Submarine - Dean Shmuel Elmas ( Globes)
Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems has delivered to the Israel Navy the IMS Drakon submarine, the largest and most powerful submarine in the Middle East, said to cost $634 million.
The IMS Drakon is over 70 meters long, allowing it to carry a larger crew as well as a wider range of equipment and weapons.
It has an AIP system, which allows batteries to be charged underwater, thus allowing for a longer dive time.
Hamas Shifts Covert Activities from Qatar to Turkey - Jonah Davidov ( Jerusalem Post)
Palestinian sources say that most of Hamas's covert activities have been transferred from Qatar to Turkey, while Qatar will continue to host its leadership and public-facing activities.
This comes as a result of Hamas's decision to appoint Iran-backed Khalil al-Hayya as its leader, instead of Khaled Meshaal, who had closer ties to Qatar.
Hayya, who served as Hamas's chief negotiator during the Israel-Hamas War, was chosen to be head of Hamas's political bureau on July 20 to replace Yahyah Sinwar, who was killed in Gaza in October 2024.
3 in 4 IDF Soldiers Wounded in War Are Back in Service - Elisha Ben Kimon ( Ynet News)
In the war that began on Oct. 7, 8,900 IDF soldiers were wounded, with a return-to-service rate of 77%.
That includes 3,600 combat soldiers out of 4,600 wounded, 400 combat support troops out of 500, and 3,000 soldiers in other roles.
U.S. Air Force Signs $1.84 Billion Contract with Northrop Grumman for Israeli Targeting Pods - Udi Etzion ( Jerusalem Post)
The U.S. Defense Department has awarded Northrop Grumman a $1.84 billion contract to supply Litening targeting pods to the U.S. Air Force and to upgrade and maintain existing systems.
Litening is a targeting pod developed by Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems that Northrop Grumman manufactures in the U.S.
The targeting pod allows pilots and navigators to locate distant ground targets during the day or at night and in all weather conditions. It has also become increasingly important for identifying drones.
Rafael developed Litening 40 years ago after the U.S. refused to sell the Israeli Air Force its equivalent American system, LANTIRN.
Rafael has since developed five generations of the pod, offering improved range and resolution.
Since 1996, the Pentagon has purchased 900 Litening pods, which proved cheaper and more effective than LANTIRN.
The system is used by U.S. Air Force F-15E, F-16, and A-10 aircraft, Navy F/A-18 fighter jets, Marine Corps Harrier aircraft, B-52 bombers, and Hercules transport aircraft.
Litening was purchased in 2025 by the German government for Luftwaffe Typhoon aircraft in a deal worth 350 million euros.
New Irish Government Jet Ordered without Israeli Navigational System May Struggle to Land - Annabel Sinclair ( Jewish News-UK)
A new Dassault Falcon 6X, used to fly Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin, was ordered without the FalconEye system made by Israeli defense company Elbit Systems.
Martin, who was defense minister in 2024, decided that Ireland would not buy equipment containing Israeli-made products.
FalconEye uses cameras and sensors to help pilots see when visibility is poor, including during heavy fog.
Former Irish Air Corps pilot Kevin Phipps said, "The operational benefit of this system is the ability to land in fog when other aircraft would have to divert to another airport."
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz - Omar Abdel-Baqui
By asserting authority over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's leadership is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. Tehran believes Trump will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections.
Yet even though Persian Gulf oil flows having fallen to 36% of prewar levels, oil prices never reached sustained levels above $100 a barrel. Even with the Iran-backed Houthis bottling up Saudi oil in the Red Sea, crude prices were below $80 a barrel Tuesday.
Iran's own oil exports rely on the passage through Hormuz. Long-term disruption deprives the Islamic Republic of its primary revenue stream while accelerating efforts by neighboring Gulf states to build bypass routes. China, one of Iran's most important partners, has dialed back oil purchases, keeping prices down. Yet countries are depleting their stockpiles at record rates. (Wall Street Journal)
- In Iran, Crowds Are Protesting the Hanging of Dissidents - Roxana Saberi
The towering yellow crane appeared in Isfahan's Alikhani Square, brought in as a gallows for the public execution of three men arrested during the anti-regime protests in January. The authorities were preparing to execute Amirhossein Safari, 28, Abolfazl Sepahi, 23, and his cousin, Alireza Sepahi, 25. Large crowds gathered in the square to support the condemned and protest against their executions.
Mehdi, a former political prisoner, said he had met a few of the Alikhani defendants while he was detained in Isfahan. He said the men had probably endured the same kinds of torture that he did. "They were torturing us in different ways, with batons, belts and cables...and by applying electric shocks to sensitive parts of our bodies."
The Islamic Republic has already carried out at least 56 executions in alleged espionage, political and national security cases from January through July this year. (The Times-UK)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Two IDF Soldiers Killed, Four Seriously Injured in Southern Lebanon -
Elisha Ben Kimon
Maj. (res.) Harel Birkenstock, 34, and Chief Master-Sgt. (res.) Tamir Vaknin, 33, were killed and four were severely injured while searching a booby-trapped building in Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. The IDF accused Hizbullah of a "blatant violation" of the ceasefire agreement and launched a wave of strikes in the area.
(Ynet News)
- IDF Chief of Staff: Every Oct. 7 Terrorist Will Be "Brought to Justice" - Esther Davis
The IDF "will not relent until we bring every person who played a part in the [Oct. 7] massacre to justice," IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said Wednesday. He spoke about recent operations that have targeted and killed Nukhba Oct. 7 terrorists, explaining that the pursuit of everyone involved in the massacre "is a permanent and ongoing mission that the IDF Southern Command is carrying out with great success."
"We will not allow a threat to emerge on our borders like the one we experienced during the Oct. 7 massacre," he added. (Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Destroys Hizbullah Tunnel Systems, Says More Remain in Southern Lebanon - Amir Bohbot
The destruction of Hizbullah's underground tunnel network in the Beaufort area and additional infrastructure along the Ali al-Taher Ridge dealt it a severe strategic blow.
According to senior officers in the IDF Northern Command, "For years we knew about the underground system that the Iranians and Hizbullah had excavated there."
"We understood that it was intended not only for surveillance and intelligence gathering but also to support direct fire against Israeli communities and military positions. Only after conducting a comprehensive survey of the network did we realize how critical it was to Hizbullah's operational plan for attacking Israel....They were prepared to remain entrenched in these underground facilities for months while continuing to fire at Israel."
Similar underground infrastructure remains in southern Lebanon and has yet to be located or destroyed by the IDF. "The assessment is that the Lebanese Armed Forces are incapable of dealing with these sites," they said. "If the IDF does not receive authorization from the political leadership because of American restrictions, Hizbullah will continue to retain strategic assets." (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- The U.S. Must Convince Tehran that Time Is Not on Its Side - Lt.-Gen. (ret.) David A. Deptula
As the U.S. settles into a recurring cycle of Iranian attacks followed by American airstrikes followed by short-lived peace talks, the burning question is how to bring the conflict to an end. Iran's leaders know they cannot defeat the U.S. in a conventional military contest. But they are betting they don't need to. Instead, their objective is to simply endure.
The regime's immediate objective is to survive the next several months before the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, while imposing costs and frustrating American diplomacy. The U.S. is measuring progress in targets destroyed and economic damage imposed. Iran is measuring progress in days survived.
Bombarding the U.S. and allies with comparatively inexpensive weapons disrupts maritime traffic, pressures energy markets, strains regional air defenses, and creates continuing demands for U.S. military action.
Only a small percentage of attacks need be successful to create economic anxiety and political pressure disproportionate to the weapons employed. Iran is betting that America will give up before the Iranian regime becomes desperate.
The U.S. is right to accelerate development and deployment of lower-cost counter-drone systems, autonomous interceptors, high-powered microwave weapons, electronic warfare capabilities, and directed-energy systems to counter cheap drone and cruise missiles. The Army has rapidly deployed thousands of Merops counter-drone interceptors.
While technology can improve the terms of the contest, it cannot determine the political objective or supply the patience required to achieve it. Iran's approach works not because its weapons are innovative, but because they are employed as part of a strategy designed to exploit American political impatience, defensive costs, and concerns about escalation. The appropriate response is therefore not simply a better interceptor, but rather a strategy that makes time work against Tehran.
The U.S. must convince Tehran that waiting will make its position progressively worse. This requires persistent military pressure against the regime's ability to attack and regenerate. The U.S. should continue attacking the production, storage, command-and-control, and launch architecture supporting Iran's missile, drone, and maritime operations.
Electrical-power infrastructure that directly supports those military capabilities constitutes a lawful military objective when targeted in accordance with the principles of distinction, proportionality, and feasible precautions, and provides a means of neutralizing them consistent with the law of armed conflict.
To secure a durable victory, the U.S. must be prepared to play the long game. This does not mean accepting an endless war. It means establishing conditions under which Iran's choices are steadily reduced while America's are preserved.
The writer is Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and a Senior Scholar at the U.S. Air Force Academy. (Forbes)
Gaza
- A Dangerous Deal: Trump's Board of Peace and Hamas - Khaled Abu Toameh
Article 13 of President Trump's September 2025 Gaza peace plan states: "All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use."
Now, however, that clear objective appears to have been replaced by something radically different. Instead of eliminating Hamas's arsenal, negotiators are discussing storing weapons, transferring them to another Palestinian party, and even allowing Hamas members to retain "personal firearms." Replacing "demilitarization" with "storage" is a win for Hamas. Transferring weapons from one Palestinian group to another is not demilitarization.
Why should a terrorist organization that carried out the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel be allowed to dictate the conditions of its own disarmament? No country fighting ISIS or al-Qaeda would first withdraw its forces and only then hope terrorists voluntarily surrender their weapons. Hamas should not be negotiating the terms of its defeat. It should be compelled to unconditionally surrender and disarm.
(Gatestone Institute)
U.S.-Israel Relations
- Former Rep. Cori Bush Bet It All on Israel and Lost - Noah Rothman
"The 'M' in Missouri doesn't stand for Middle East. It stands for Missouri," Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) said Tuesday.
"What we've seen over and over is talking about an issue that is not impacting folks right here in St. Louis," he said, referring to former Rep. Cori Bush, whom he resoundingly defeated in the Democratic primary. In her rematch against Bell, Bush ran hard against AIPAC, accusing Bell of being "bought" and "paid for" by Israeli interests.
But Bell articulated the logic of his support for Israel's defensive priorities as an American:
"Hamas, Iran, Hizbullah, the Houthis, they don't just say death to Israel, period. They say death to Israel, comma, death to America....These are our sworn enemies, and we have allies in Israel....Why would we not support them with everything that we have now?" (National Review)
- U.S. Ambassador: Israel Did Not Engineer Spain-Morocco Migrant Crisis - James Genn
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee dismissed conspiracy theories that claim Israel and the U.S. are behind the migrant crisis at the Moroccan-Spanish border in Ceuta, during an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan broadcast on Monday. "It's ridiculous to say that somehow this is a U.S.-Israel conspiracy and that's why all those young men flooded to the coast; it's nonsense. Everything that seems to happen on earth, somebody has this nutty idea that it must be Israel and/or the U.S. who would be behind it."
Asked if he thinks Israel can do a deal with Hamas, Huckabee said Hamas were "proud" of what they did during the Oct. 7 massacre, highlighted by how they "strapped GoPro cameras to their heads, and videotaped themselves raping, slaughtering, beheading, butchering, massacring women, children, and elderly people....They boasted about it online, in phone calls, on the video tape that they shot."
"It would be a wonderful gift to the world if Hamas did not have weapons, because if they have them, they're just nutty enough to want to use them to slaughter people, particularly civilians and innocent people....President Trump said repeatedly that Hamas has no future in Gaza," adding that accepting Hamas as the governing body in Gaza would be like asking the Nazis to continue to run Germany after World War II.
Huckabee denied allegations that Trump's decisions vis-a-vis striking Iran were guided by Israeli policy or requests from Israeli leadership. "I was in the Situation Room....I disagree with any narrative that says that the Israelis talked Donald Trump into it. That simply did not happen. Nobody talked him into anything....It was based on the fact that for over 47 years, Iran has been saying 'death to America.'" (Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- Despite the celebratory announcement of an agreement providing for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, deep gaps remain between the parties, compounded by flawed assumptions on the part of the mediators. Hamas does not view disarmament as a unilateral obligation. In addition, Hamas demands guarantees that it will be integrated into Gaza's governing mechanisms as a condition for relinquishing its weapons.
- Israel insists on the full disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza (which includes removing the weapons and not leaving them in the Strip) as a precondition for withdrawal.
- The International Stabilization Force faces significant recruitment difficulties, stemming from the refusal of states to deploy troops to areas where Hamas remains armed. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza is reluctant to enter the Strip in the absence of an effective security mechanism to protect its members.
- Hamas sources revealed that it formulated its hardline positions - foremost among them its refusal to disarm before a full Israeli withdrawal - in close coordination with mediators Turkey and Qatar. The mediators' strategic objective is to preserve Hamas as a legitimate political actor. They strongly oppose conditioning Gaza's reconstruction on Hamas's complete disarmament, while seeking to assume a leading role and secure a major share in reconstruction projects in the Strip.
- Hamas's apparent willingness to show greater flexibility can reasonably be attributed to the IDF's sustained military pressure, including targeted killing operations and the expansion of Israel's hold over Gazan territory from 53% to 65%. In practice, however, this does not represent a substantive change, but rather a calculated strategy of delay and "tactical flexibility" whose sole purpose is to ensure Hamas's political and military survival.
- Hamas has effectively exploited the diversion of regional attention toward Iran to rebuild its military and civilian systems: it has restored its chain of command, resumed weapons production and tunnel construction, and expanded its ranks to 30,000 armed operatives. These are not the actions of an organization preparing or intending to disarm.
- There is serious concern that the mediators are playing a dangerous double game. Their apparent objective is to push the U.S. and the Board of Peace into a confrontation with Israel and to place responsibility on Israel for derailing the Trump plan because of its insistence that its withdrawal take place only after the complete disarmament of Hamas. It is even possible that Turkey and Qatar persuaded Hamas to accept the framework on the assumption that Israel would reject it.
The writer served as Managing Director of INSS for ten years.
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