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In-Depth Issues:
Netanyahu's Son Yair Was Target of Iran Assassination Plot in Miami ( Newsmax)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's son Yair was the target of an Iranian assassination plot while living in Hallandale Beach, near Miami, Newsmax has learned. Israeli intelligence learned of the Iranian plot in December and alerted U.S. authorities.
A U.S. law enforcement source said it was believed Iranian operatives were already "on the ground" in the Miami area and had conducted surveillance of Yair's residence and movements.
Yair, who has an Israeli security detail with him at all times, was told to leave immediately and he returned to Israel.
Saudi Arabia Reroutes Oil Exports Yet Again - Lisa Friedman ( New York Times)
Saudi Arabia, long the world's largest oil exporter, has spent the last six months improvising how to get its crude to the world.
Since the war in Iran effectively eliminated its main transit point in the Persian Gulf - the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been forced to find a new route, shipping oil via the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the southern end of the Red Sea.
Recent attacks by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have forced the kingdom to move oil north in the Red Sea, via ships that unload crude at the Sumed pipeline in Egypt that shuttles it to the Mediterranean Sea, since the Suez Canal cannot accommodate giant tankers.
This convoluted route is costlier and takes weeks longer for oil to reach markets in Asia.
More than 1.9 million barrels of crude per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia, traveled through the Sumed pipeline in August compared with fewer than 650,000 barrels a day in June, according to Kpler.
Qatar Cuts Overseas Aid Drastically after Iranian Missile Strikes Damage Key LNG Complex ( Iran Dossier-UK)
Iranian missile strikes on March 18 and 19 damaged Qatar's liquefied natural gas complex at Ras Laffan, removing 12.8 million tons a year of liquefaction capacity with a revenue loss of $20 billion.
The International Monetary Fund projects Qatar's GDP contracting 8.6% in 2026, the steepest in the GCC.
Qatar has absorbed the shock without financial distress. However, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 22 that Qatar has cut government department budgets by up to 30% and reduced overseas aid funding by 85%.
Qatari foreign assistance is designed to make Doha useful to Washington, tolerable to Tehran, and indispensable in Gaza.
Cuts in overseas funding could affect its contributions to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), UNRWA, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
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How Tehran Survives U.S. Sanctions - Rory Jones ( Wall Street Journal)
Iran has spent years setting up a complex system of oil sales and clandestine shadow banking that it hopes will sustain its economy and military long enough to outlast the latest U.S. economic assault.
The U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero. But Tehran still has 80 million barrels of oil stored offshore in oil tankers, mainly in the waters off Malaysia.
Relying on a ship-to-ship transfer system, sanctioned tankers unload crude onto other tankers in international waters to mask the fuel's origin, then ship the cargo to China.
U.S. sanctions generally aim to cut off targets from the U.S. financial system. But sanctions become less effective if U.S. enemies avoid the U.S. financial system entirely.
Iran's transactions with China are increasingly settled in Chinese yuan, outside U.S. oversight. Iran also uses cryptocurrencies to avoid U.S. oversight.
Moreover, Tehran operates a network of shell companies in hubs including Hong Kong and Dubai that are controlled by Iranian exchange houses. These move Iranian oil proceeds into other currencies.
As Washington sanctions one front company, Tehran simply spins up another.
See also Shutting Iran's Emirati Back Door to Banks and Supply Chains - Matthew Levitt ( Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran - Benoit Faucon ( Wall Street Journal)
Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food this week as the U.S. threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages.
Small demonstrations by labor unions are popping up across the country. On Monday, offshore oil and gas workers protested in Asaluyeh, saying workers who keep production running shouldn't be facing a livelihood crisis or struggling to pay rent.
On Sunday, 100 laid-off workers demonstrated against their dismissal at the Shadegan steel complex in western Iran.
Conditions are clearly deteriorating. Long lines formed outside fuel stations in Tehran and other cities as drivers rushed to fill their tanks ahead of a planned reduction in quotas for subsidized fuel.
Some supermarkets in Tehran temporarily ran out of cooking oil and rice as shoppers scooped them for hoarding.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Trump Tells Al Jazeera: Confrontation with Iran Will Continue as Long as Necessary
U.S. President Donald Trump told Al Jazeera on Wednesday: "We are winning very big [in the conflict with Iran]. They've got massive inflation, their economy is falling apart, they're treating their people very badly, they are killing many, many protesters. I have no time schedule [to end the conflict]; whatever it takes." Asked whether economic measures were more effective than military strikes, Trump responded: "I think they are both effective." (Al Jazeera)
- Trump Sends Saudi Nuclear Deal to Congress but Says Riyadh Must Recognize Israel - Timothy Gardner
President Donald Trump sent Congress on Monday a proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy while insisting the pact will only go into effect if the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel, a U.S. administration official said Tuesday. The agreement, which was reached in July, would allow U.S. companies to export civilian nuclear technology to the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has demanded an irreversible path to a Palestinian state before recognizing Israel. (Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- The Kites from Gaza Are a Trial Balloon to Test Israel's Defenses - Yoni Ben Menachem
The renewed launch of kites from Gaza into Israel is not innocent, but an attempt by Hamas to test Israel's defenses and response. The next stage could involve explosive drones or even swarms of drones targeting Israeli soldiers and civilians. If Hamas concludes that these tests do not trigger a significant Israeli response, it could see this as an opportunity to continue developing the threat. (X-Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
See also Israel Can't Afford to Take Hamas's Kites Lightly
In 2018, terrorist groups in Gaza flew kites and balloons carrying incendiary devices over the border fence, igniting 678 fires and burning over 2,500 acres of forests and farmland. These airborne arson attacks continued during the next three years. (Mosaic)
- Israel Expels Dutch Officials from Gaza Coordination Center over "Anti-Israel" Policies - Itamar Eichner
Israel on Tuesday ordered Dutch representatives to leave the U.S.-backed Civil-Military Coordination Center and the country within a week, citing what Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar described as a series of "anti-Israel" steps by the Dutch government. He said the decision followed Dutch legislation banning trade in products originating from Israeli communities in the West Bank, as well as from eastern Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.
"The anti-Israel policy of the Dutch government is accompanied by an unprecedented wave of antisemitism and boycotts in that country," Sa'ar said. "Whoever acts against Israel will have no foothold in the region. Israel will not allow measures against it to go unanswered."
Spain was expelled from the CMCC in April, when Israel's Foreign Ministry cited the "anti-Israel obsession" of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government.
(Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Who Is Really Running Iran? - Oded Ailam
In late July, Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was finally granted an audience with the country's elusive new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Iran International, citing sources inside the president's office and others, Pezeshkian was driven to an undisclosed location, transferred into a commercial vehicle with tinted windows, and placed beside a man he was told was the supreme leader.
The car was kept in darkness. No handshake was permitted. The encounter was reportedly brief and conducted entirely by voice. Pezeshkian allegedly left wondering whether he had met Mojtaba Khamenei at all.
Iran has a supreme leader whom almost nobody sees, a president who cannot reliably reach him, and a military establishment that increasingly makes decisions in his name. In Iran, where the leader's image is part of the machinery of authority, invisibility creates a vacuum.
The most important leader is Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has served as defense minister, interior minister, and commander of the Quds Force, Iran's principal instrument of foreign covert action.
Argentina accuses Vahidi of involvement in planning the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. This allegation places Iran's most powerful military institution under a man associated with terrorism, proxies and covert action as ordinary instruments of statecraft.
Around Vahidi stands a small fraternity of veteran Guards commanders and intelligence officials whose careers stretch back to the revolution and the Iran-Iraq War. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, shapes strategy. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr connects the institutions. Hossein Taeb, the former chief of IRGC Intelligence who now heads the Basij paramilitary organization, watches the streets. Together, they are the operating system of the Islamic Republic.
Iran's security establishment captured the decisive institutions of the state. The Guards did not abolish the clerical state; they climbed inside it. They kept its constitution, rituals and religious vocabulary while concentrating practical power in the hands of men with military and intelligence backgrounds. They do not need Iran to win today. They need the West to lose patience tomorrow.
The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
- Iranian Cyber Sabotage Is Targeting U.S. Water Systems - Lt.-Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham
The Iranian regime recently executed a series of targeted digital intrusions against water infrastructure in the U.S. This aggressive campaign focused on the operational technology networks of municipal drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities across 7-12 states.
The primary mechanism of the attacks is the scanning of the public internet for exposed programmable logic controllers, which are specialized industrial mini-computers responsible for managing physical machinery, water flow, and chemical treatment cycles.
A pivotal potential vulnerability exposed during this campaign was the indirect threat to the chemical treatment and safety of the supply of drinking water. If water flow drops significantly at a particular location while automated chemical injectors continue to pump in the disinfectant chlorine at pre-set levels, the concentration of chlorine in that section of the facility can rapidly skyrocket to toxic, highly corrosive levels.
Irrespective of its actual impact, this sabotage event borders on the threshold of biochemical warfare insofar as it was a deliberate attempt to inflict a toxicant on an adversary population. The sabotage was designed to prove that a foreign adversary can silently compromise the safety of both U.S. industry structures and individual Americans' household tap water from thousands of miles away.
The writer is a former senior analyst in IDF Military Intelligence and the Ministry of Defense, specializing in chemical and biological warfare. (BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)
See also Mapping Iranian Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems - Emily Harding (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
Turkey
- Turkey's Push to Entrench Itself near Aleppo Forced Israel's Hand in Syria - Meir Ben Shabbat
Israel had detected Turkish plans to establish a foothold at an airfield south of its own lines, near Aleppo, Syria;
shared intelligence on Turkey's intentions with Washington; and separately passed a direct warning to regime officials in Damascus.
The Israeli air force strike on the Abu al-Duhur military airfield aimed to prevent a shift in the regional balance of power and protect Israel's freedom of action. Acting early, before a new and harder-to-reverse reality took hold, made more sense than waiting until entrenched Turkish assets raised the stakes of any future confrontation. Israel struck only after its warnings went unanswered.
Since Assad's regime collapsed and Iran's military presence was pushed out, Turkey has become the central power broker in Syria, rebuilding infrastructure and standing up Syria's air force and army. It's deepening its grip through energy projects, trade corridors, transportation networks and phosphate mining.
The writer, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, headed Israel's National Security Council (2017-2021) and served for 25 years in the Israel Security Agency. (Israel Hayom)
See also Israel's Red Line in Syria - and the Price of Confrontation with Turkey - Dr. Carmit Valensi and Amal Hayek (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
Israel and the West
- Long-Proposed Building in the Jerusalem Suburbs Isn't the Death of Peace - Editorial
The Europeans are always on the lookout for opportunities to bash Israel. Their latest is called E1, a small area of land just east of crowded Jerusalem, where Israel has long wanted to build to connect to a nearby suburb. Plans approved in 2025 are now moving forward with construction tenders.
The UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway and Canada published a statement last week warning of "serious breaches of international law." Developing the E1 area, they warned, "will undermine the prospect of the two-state solution by driving a wedge through the West Bank and harming the contiguity of the Palestinian Territories."
Under any realistic peace plan, E1 would remain part of Israel. That was the case in the maps presented at Camp David and Taba in 2000-01 when, to Bill Clinton's lament, the Palestinians turned down Israel's offer of full statehood. As for "contiguity," have the Europeans looked at a map? Palestinians could easily bypass the tiny area - fewer than five square miles - by traveling a little east. Israel has long offered to build a bypass road for this purpose, with no harm done to the contiguity.
Per the Oslo Accords, E1 is part of the West Bank's Area C, under full Israeli administration. The Europeans prefer to forget that, issuing threats and loudly objecting to each local zoning decision, as they do nowhere else. For peace, it is far better for Israelis to develop suburbs such as E1, in nearby areas legitimately needed for strategic depth. (Wall Street Journal)
- UK Prime Minister's Attacks on Israel Are Dangerously Naive - Con Coughlin
In one of his first major foreign policy initiatives, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is planning to impose a ban on trade with Israeli communities in the West Bank, the type of empty gesture politics normally reserved for university campuses.
The only constituency likely to applaud such a move would be those who believe our national interest is best served by supporting Islamist death cults such as Hamas and Hizbullah. Does Burnham genuinely believe the UK would benefit from indulging in a gratuitous attack on a key Middle East ally like Israel?
Apart from the fact that Burnham's plan to sanction such trade is unworkable - it is virtually impossible to identify goods and produce emanating specifically from these communities - it is hard to imagine a less opportune moment for Britain to pick a fight with Israel.
As if the Iranian attack on a UK power station was not sufficient proof of Tehran's hostile intent, Iran has been accused of plotting assassinations in the UK against dissidents, journalists and Jewish communities. The regime has also paid criminal gangs to target government buildings and threatened to attack British bases used by U.S. forces.
Iran's violent response in the Gulf, where it has repeatedly attacked the national infrastructure of Gulf states that have no involvement in the U.S. war against the ayatollahs, shows just how indiscriminate the ayatollahs can be.
It would be helpful if the UK had access to Israel's considerable intelligence on Iran's military capabilities and extensive terror network. But it is unlikely there will be much intelligence-sharing as long as Burnham feels this is a good moment to pick a pointless fight with Israel.
If Iran increases its attacks against UK interests, whether they involve more cyber hacks or major terror attacks on British soil, Britain will need all the allies it can muster. As far as Iran is concerned, there is no better ally than Israel, which is why British intelligence officials have spent the past decade developing close intelligence-sharing ties with Mossad to monitor Iran's nuclear and terrorist activities.
(Telegraph-UK)
Observations:
- Twenty years of experience as an American diplomat has made me realize that no amount of diplomatic ingenuity can contain Iran. President Donald Trump is right to resort to an intensive economic pressure campaign, backed by the implicit threat of renewed kinetic action. The U.S. should keep pushing until it gets the best outcome for American interests, the region and the Iranian people: the shattering of the illegitimate regime in Tehran.
- I was sent to Kuwait for my first State Department assignment, arriving in 2007 at the peak of Iraq's bloody civil war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drove much of the violence, building death squads and militias and arming them with IEDs that killed and injured hundreds of U.S. service members.
- My subsequent tour in Bahrain coincided with the onset of the Arab Spring protests in 2010. Popular grievances fueled the demonstrations, but Iran exploited the situation, pouring fuel on sectarian tensions. Gulf rulers seized on fears of Iranian interference to justify the Saudi-led intervention that put an end to the protests.
- From 2011 to 2013, I coordinated State Department policy for Lebanon - a country hollowed out by decades of Iranian meddling and hostage to Tehran's shadow war against Israel. Billions of dollars of IRGC backing meant Hizbullah outgunned Lebanon's national army and possessed an arsenal of 60,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israeli towns and cities. Iran in 2013 dispatched Hizbullah to shore up the Assad regime in Syria during the civil war, fueling a conflict that led to over half a million deaths.
- The mullahs might not have orchestrated Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, but IRGC know-how and hundreds of millions of dollars of funding over two decades enabled the rampage into Israel that killed more than 1,200 people, including 46 Americans.
- The regime in Tehran bears overwhelming responsibility for the mayhem and misery in the Middle East since 1979, and its hold on power is a dire threat to regional stability. The current showdown is an inevitable result of the Iranian regime's efforts to dominate the region through bullying, blackmail and terror. The best outcome for the region - and for core U.S. interests - is the regime's collapse.
The writer is a former U.S. diplomat and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
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