|
In-Depth Issues:
IDF Confirms It Killed Muhammad Deif in Khan Yunis Attack - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post)
The IDF on Thursday confirmed 100% that its July 13 airstrike targeting Hamas military leader Muhammad Deif succeeded in killing him.
It said that in recent hours it had received additional intelligence to confirm Deif's death to a complete certainty, while the defense establishment had been confident for the last two weeks that its air strike had killed him.
The Preemptive Targeting of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran - Yoni Ben Menachem ( Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Israeli intelligence sources report that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was aware of the planned attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on Oct. 7.
Accounts from Tehran state that Haniyeh and his bodyguard were killed in their apartment at a guest house for foreign leaders.
This is another severe blow to Hamas's morale and operations following the killing of Muhammad Deif, the supreme commander of Hamas's military wing in Gaza.
See also below Commentary: Ismail Haniyeh's Place in Palestinian Politics - Khaled Abu Toameh ( Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Israel Warns of Strong Response If Hizbullah Attacks - Itamar Eichner ( Ynet News)
Israel is readying a powerful response should it face retaliation following the preemptive targeting of Hizbullah's top commander Fuad Shukr, a senior official said on Wednesday.
"We are certainly preparing for a strong response in the event of an attack. The international community, led by the U.S., is making significant efforts behind the scenes to prevent a regional war."
Israel Prepared for Hit to Offshore Gas Production - Dean Shmuel Elmas ( Globes)
Hizbullah targeted Israel's Karish gas production platform this week with a UAV, which was shot down by a C-Dome system on board an Israel Navy Sa'ar 6 corvette.
Karish is the only production platform whose output is entirely for the domestic market. Last year, it supplied 34% of local consumption.
An all-out war with Hizbullah that leads to the cessation of production from Karish will cause shock waves in Israel's energy market.
It will also affect Jordan and Egypt, which rely on gas imports from Israel, since Israel will need to look to other sources for its own needs.
If both Karish and Leviathan are put out of action, Israel will have to return to diesel and coal, whose cost will be much higher than natural gas.
Israel has taken care to ensure a stock of fuel in case of an extreme situation in which two or more gas reservoirs are out of action, in accordance with pre-set procedures.
U.S. Strikes Iran-Aligned Militias in Iraq - Ahmed Rasheed ( Reuters)
After multiple rockets were launched toward Iraq's Ain al-Asad airbase housing U.S.-led forces last week, the U.S. on Tuesday struck a base south of Baghdad used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), killing four members of Iran-aligned militias and wounding four others.
U.S. officials said the strike targeted militants at a drone manufacturing facility who posed a threat to U.S. and coalition forces.
Tuesday's action was the first U.S. strike in Iraq since February.
Antisemitic Protesters Holding Palestinian Flags Spew Hateful Rhetoric at Paris Olympics - Nicole Russell ( USA Today)
On Saturday at the Paris Olympics, during the Israeli men's soccer team match against Paraguay, a group of antisemitic protesters holding Palestinian flags spewed hateful rhetoric, booed and chanted revolting slogans toward Israel's team.
The protesters held a sign that read "Genocide Olympics." As Israel's national anthem played before the game, protesters screamed "Heil Hitler" while doing a Nazi salute.
Follow the Jerusalem Center on:
Who Is Behind the Pro-Hamas Demonstrations in Washington - Asra Q. Nomani ( Los Angeles Jewish Journal)
Last week at Union Station, in the shadow of the U.S. Capitol, a crowd pulled down the American flags and hoisted Palestinian flags, burning the American flags to shouts of "Allahu Akbar!" by Muslim activists.
I drove to Union Station and saw the graffiti: "End Israel. I Commend Hamas," "Death 2 Amrikkka," "A National Led by Muhammad Will Not Be Defeated."
As an American Muslim, I had received an email from American Muslims for Palestine and found the portal to get bus tickets for the Washington demonstration.
It was on the website of ANSWER, a coalition of self-described socialist, Leninist, and Marxist organizations, led by the cofounders of the National Party for Socialism and Liberation.
They are pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine, pro-China, pro-North Korea, pro-Cuba, and pro-Venezuelan socialism.
This wasn't an organic, grassroots, spontaneous event. It was coordinated and orchestrated.
Report Slams Washington Post's Unprofessional Middle East Coverage - Robert Satloff ( Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
One way to evaluate the professionalism of Gaza war coverage in major U.S. media is to look at the use of anonymous sources in Gaza war reporting. One outlet - the Washington Post - stands out from all the others.
The Washington Institute created a database of all stories on the Gaza war that included anonymous sourcing during the first six months of the conflict by seven leading U.S. media platforms: the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, and CNN.
While 379 stories drew from an anonymous or confidential source who was a government or organizational official, just 57 stories cited local people as anonymous sources.
But the Washington Post was responsible for 72% of all the citations of unofficial anonymous sources - more than five times as many as the New York Times and all the other major U.S. media platforms combined.
The writer is executive director of The Washington Institute.
Israel's Former Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren Joins Emergency Squad in the Galilee ( Walla-Jerusalem Post)
Former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren, 69, has volunteered for the Kibbutz Kfar Blum emergency squad in the Upper Galilee, he said Wednesday.
Oren, a former paratrooper, said, "My love for Israel and my desire to help in any way made me put on a uniform for the first time in a decade."
"It is our duty to contribute, each one according to his ability, for the sake of the country."
Search the Recent History of Israel and the Middle East
Send the Daily Alert to a Friend If you are viewing the email version of the Daily Alert and want to share it with friends, please click Forward in your email program and enter their address.
|
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Hamas Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh Killed in Iran - Rory Jones
Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was targeted and killed in Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday. Hamas said Haniyeh had been killed by Israel after attending the inauguration ceremony Tuesday of the new president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel did not comment on Haniyeh's death, but has said it would target Hamas leaders for launching the Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people and saw 250 taken hostage.
While Hamas's Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar has been viewed as the group's key decision-maker, Haniyeh was also viewed as an important decision-maker. Israel killed Haniyeh's deputy Saleh Arouri in a targeted strike in Beirut in January.
(Wall Street Journal)
See also Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Killed in Iran - Steve Hendrix
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed early Wednesday in central Tehran. Israeli experts said Israel hoped the risk of escalation would be outweighed by a demonstration of military and intelligence prowess that allowed it to reach deep into Tehran.
"I don't think it will change the balance of power or the face of the war, but it sends a strong signal to Iran and the axis [of proxy militant groups]," said Yoel Guzansky, a former official on Israel's National Security Council who is now a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "It shows them they cannot be safe anywhere, even in Tehran. I think this is Israel getting some of its reputation for deterrence back." (Washington Post)
- Pentagon Officials Stunned by Targeting Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran - Peter Baker
Top Pentagon and military officials were stunned by the operation targeting Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, particularly the decision to conduct it in the Iranian capital. One senior U.S. military officer said that while Iran must be embarrassed by the extraordinary security lapse, it may also be fearful of engaging in a full-scale war with Israel. While Israel has not publicly confirmed its involvement in the killing of Haniyeh, U.S. officials privately acknowledged that it had been carried out by the Israelis.
Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said such preemptive targeting is actually in keeping with the Biden administration's pressure on Israel to favor targeted strikes against Hamas leaders instead of wide-scale military operations that result in civilian casualties.
"In a certain way, this is exactly what the U.S. has been urging Israel to do," he said. "That's one reason why you're not hearing too many people in the administration being critical of this." (New York Times)
- Defense Secretary Austin Says U.S. Will "Help Defend Israel" If It's Attacked - Karen Lema
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was asked on Wednesday what assistance the U.S. would provide if a wider conflict should break out in the Middle East. He responded, "We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again. We don't want to see any of that happen. We're going to work hard to make sure that we're doing things to help take the temperature down." (Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- IDF Says Hizbullah Commander behind Deadly Majdal Shams Attack Killed in Beirut Airstrike - Yaniv Kubovich
The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday that Fuad Shukr, Hizbullah's number two man and in charge of the group's military activities, who was responsible for Saturday's attack which killed 12 children in Majdal Shams, was killed in an airstrike in Beirut. Shukr has been part of Hizbullah's military since its founding.
The U.S. State Department previously offered a $5 million reward for information about his whereabouts. According to Western sources, he was a partner in the attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut on Oct. 23, 1983, killing 220 marines, 18 sailors and three soldiers. Another 128 Americans were wounded in the blast.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel targeted Hizbullah's "chief of staff," whose "hands were covered with the blood of many Israelis." He said that "there is nowhere Israel will not strike in order to exact a heavy price from anyone for harming Israel." CNN reported that Israel notified the U.S. before the strike.
(Ha'aretz)
See also The Elimination of Fuad Shukr: Hizbullah's Most Senior Military Commander
On July 30, Israeli Air Force fighter jets eliminated Hizbullah's most senior military commander and the head of its Strategic Unit, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Fuad served as Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's right-hand man and was Nasrallah's adviser for planning and directing wartime operations.
Fuad has directed Hizbullah's attacks on Israel since October 8. He was responsible for the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years. Fuad was responsible for the majority of Hizbullah's most advanced weaponry and was responsible for force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against Israel. He was a member of the Jihad Council - Hizbullah's most senior military forum. (Israel Defense Forces)
- Israeli Killed by Rocket Shrapnel in Northern Israel following Hizbullah Barrage - Noa Shpigel
An Israeli man, Nir Popko, 28, was killed at Kibbutz Hagoshrim on Tuesday after being hit by rocket shrapnel following a barrage launched by Hizbullah from Lebanon into northern Israel. The IDF said 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israeli territory in the barrage, most of which were intercepted.
(Ha'aretz)
See also Nir Stayed to Farm on the Kibbutz Despite the Danger - Nina Fox
Nir Popko was killed on Tuesday by a Hizbullah rocket strike in Kibbutz HaGoshrim in the Upper Galilee. Zohar Lipkin, a resident of the kibbutz, said:
"The kibbutz was evacuated; we're just over a mile from the border, but Nir stayed here to work in agriculture for a while, so he did not evacuate....We have no response time here; as soon as there is an alarm, a rocket hits." Erez Bergman, chairman of the kibbutz, said that 25 houses were damaged. (Ynet News)
- Israeli Man Seriously Hurt in Palestinian Attack near Hebron - Emanuel Fabian
An Israeli man in his 50s was stabbed and seriously wounded by a Palestinian near the southern West Bank village of Beit Einun, the IDF said Wednesday.
The terrorist arrived in the area by car armed with a handgun and knife. He opened fire at the Israeli man's car, before getting out and stabbing him. (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Israeli Security
- The Elimination of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Sends a Strong Message to Iran - Dr. Dan Diker
The elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas political bureau (2017-2024) and a former Palestinian prime minister in Gaza (2006-2014), sends several important messages from Israel to Iran and its terror proxy network. Haniyeh's elimination in Tehran insulted the Iranians, revealed their weakness, and broadcast that Iranian leaders could be targeted and eliminated anywhere. It also sent a resonant message to the Iranian terror network that Israel is capable of reaching any terrorist leader when it decides to reach them.
The Hamas government that Haniyeh led in Gaza, until he was replaced in 2016 by Yahya Sinwar, had militarized Hamas's operational capabilities extraordinarily since the early 2000s, with the assistance of Iran. Under Haniyeh's leadership, Hamas prosecuted several terror wars, including in 2008-2009, 2011-2012, and 2014-2015. It was Haniyeh who presided over Hamas when he directed and motivated thousands of Gazan boys to try to storm the fence in 2018 in what was called the "Great March of Return."
It has been reported recently that Haniyeh was behind some of the intensive Qatari-sponsored efforts to implement a ceasefire, positioning himself in Western media as a peacemaker. This couldn't be further from the truth. Haniyeh's interest was in saving the Hamas regime and "blowing up" the negotiations by intensifying Hamas's demands.
The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Post)
- Israel Returns Fire on Iran and Its Proxies - Editorial
The media is fretting about a broader war, but that war is already here and it's as likely the strikes on Iran's proxy allies have a deterrent effect on Tehran, even as it responds.
Even with Hizbullah on highest alert, Israel knew the precise location of a top leader.
Israel has also shown it has the intel and military capability to strike at the center of Tehran, which funds and guides the proxies waging war on the Jewish state.
The U.S. can help Israel prevent a larger war by putting pressure on Hizbullah and Iran. Expediting weapons to Israel, including deep-penetrating bombs that would put Iran's nuclear facilities at risk, would send a message, as would enforcing oil sanctions again. Sending U.S. warships to the eastern Mediterranean, as after Oct. 7, would also make Iran think twice about Hizbullah's next move.
Israel has a right to defend itself, but more than that it has the right and ample cause to defeat the terrorists who won't let it live in peace.
(Wall Street Journal)
- Assessing the Preemptive Targeting in Beirut and Tehran - Yoram Schweitzer
Israel is in a prolonged war on seven fronts. The message of recent preemptive targeting operations against Hizbullah, Hamas, Iran, and its partners is that Israel has not lost its power and is not the new "weak kid" in the region. Rather, it demonstrates determination and willingness to strike at the heart of its enemies' strongholds with boldness, originality, and a demonstration of intelligence and precise operational capability.
These actions are also intended for Israel's partners and allies, in addition to strengthening the sense of security of Israelis and Jews in the diaspora.
In Lebanon, Fuad Shukr's death sent a clear message to Nasrallah about the exposure of Hizbullah and its vulnerability, and Israel's determination to continue the "harvest of senior commanders."
The death of Ismail Haniyeh sends a clear message that Israel is keeping its promise that the Hamas leadership will not have immunity anywhere in the world, not even in the heart of the fortress of its main supporter, Iran.
The writer has been a researcher at INSS since 2003, following a distinguished career in the Israeli intelligence community.
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
- How Rocket Fired at Majdal Shams Got Through - Dean Shmuel Elmas
For nearly ten months, attacks by Iran's proxies in Lebanon have cost human lives. Many of Hizbullah's attacks have been by UAVs, but in the case of the attack on Majdal Shams the weapon was an Iranian-manufactured Falaq 1 rocket with a 50kg. warhead.
Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, explained why the rocket that managed to hit Majdal Shams on Saturday, killing 12 children, was not intercepted. "It may be that the air defense system was swamped by targets," he said. "Hizbullah sometimes deceives the system with decoy UAVs while firing a rocket, or several rockets at once. Another possibility is that the rocket was fired from very short range. Iron Dome is effective against rockets launched to a certain altitude, and the lower the altitude, the less effective it is."
"A third factor that can affect interception is that Iron Dome needs time to react to a rocket. Anti-tank missiles such as the Kornet reach speeds of 300-400 meters per second. Large rockets with bigger motors can reach 700-800 meters per second or more. Such a rocket covers a range of 10 km. in about 12 seconds, and it's therefore difficult for Iron Dome to intercept it."
"The degree of success of Iron Dome in the north is lower than in the Gaza area. That stems from the character of the battlefield, with launches at low altitude and at short range, which Hizbullah does deliberately. We saw that the UAV launched towards the Karish gas platform was successfully intercepted, apparently thanks to the distance and the altitude, which made it possible to spot it and to intercept it without any damage caused." (Globes)
- Israel's War for Security - Bret Stephens
The war Israel is now waging against Hamas and its allies in Gaza and the West Bank, Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran itself is about security. Israelis
want to be able to live safely in their homes without fearing they could be rocketed, pillaged, killed or kidnapped with barely a moment's warning.
The threat of a major escalation on Israel's northern border has turned entire cities into ghost towns and displaced more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes. That's the proportional equivalent of two million Americans forced out of their homes. Those who condemn Israel now for its allegedly disproportionate response to the attacks by Hamas and Hizbullah would be more intellectually honest if they asked themselves what they would demand of their own governments if they were in the same situation.
Israel's most strident critics insist that the current conflict is about Palestinian existence, but that's a dishonest claim. Israel agreed to a Palestinian Authority in 1993, offered a Palestinian state in 2000 and vacated Gaza in 2005.
When campus protesters at Princeton chanted, "We don't want no two states, we want '48," they weren't asking for Israel to accept a Palestinian state. They're demanding Israel's abolition. They are also adopting the views of Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran. (New York Times)
- Iran's Existential Threat to Israel - Rabbi Warren Goldstein
If Israel does not destroy Iran's production of nuclear weapons, no one else will.
In 1981, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin faced a similar decision. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq had been pressing ahead with its nuclear program. Just like Iran, Saddam had issued genocidal threats against Israel. So Menachem Begin ordered a daring Israeli Air Force operation on June 7, 1981.
Begin's trusted adviser Yehuda Avner, in his book The Prime Ministers, describes how the Israeli pilots flew below Saudi, Jordanian and Iraqi radar to destroy the nuclear facility situated at Osirak in the heart of Baghdad and return home unscathed. As the jets returned to base safely, Begin said: "The atomic bombs which the reactor was capable of producing would have been of the Hiroshima size, thus a mortal danger to the people of Israel progressively arose."
"Let the world know that under no circumstances will Israel ever allow an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against our people. If ever such a threat reoccurs, we shall take whatever preemptive measures are necessary to defend the citizens of Israel with all the means at our disposal."
Afterward, as expected, Begin faced a barrage of criticism. The Reagan administration suspended delivery of F-16 aircraft to Israel and voted in support of a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel's actions.
Begin responded: "What greater act of self-defense could there be than to destroy Saddam Hussein's nuclear potential that was intended to bring Israel to its knees, slaughter our people, vaporize our infrastructure, destroy our nation, our country, our very existence?"
So we've been through all of this. We've seen it before. None of it is new. Today, Israel faces the same situation with Iran. The prospect of mutually assured destruction, which deterred the Soviet regime during the Cold War, won't deter Iran. As political analyst Charles Krauthammer observed, mutually assured destruction for jihadists who glorify death and martyrdom is an incentive, not a deterrent.
The writer is chief rabbi of South Africa. (JNS)
- The UN Would Have Israel Accept Attacks on Its Citizens - Stephen Daisley
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the slaughter of 12 children on an Israeli soccer pitch in Majdal Shams but called for "maximum restraint" to avoid "any further escalation" and urged all parties to "recommit to the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701."
This resolution was the UN's solution to the Second Lebanon War. It called on Israel and Hizbullah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese government to exert control over its territory and prevent it being used by Hizbullah to resume hostilities. Israel withdrew, Hizbullah didn't, Beirut never exerted control and Hizbullah continued to use southern Lebanon as a base from which to attack Israel. Since Oct. 7, Hizbullah has fired 5,000 rockets at Israel.
Restraint, like proportional responses and international law, is something forever enjoined on Israel but seldom her enemies. But what is the restrained response to those who blow children to pieces in front of their soccer coach?
There is no appetite in Israel for another ground war. Israel will extract a price from Hizbullah but it will be much less than they deserve. Much less than would be required to deter them from further attacks. Yet when that price comes to be paid, expect the UN and the NGOs and the British Foreign Office to scold and condemn and denounce. They simply do not regard Israeli self-defense as legitimate. (Spectator-UK)
Hizbullah
- The Death of a Hizbullah Lifer - Matthew Levitt
In response to the July 27 Hizbullah rocket attack that killed 12 children in Majdal Shams, Israel carried out a precision airstrike in Beirut on July 30 that targeted Hizbullah senior commander Fuad Shukr. His death removes one of the group's most capable military figures, who had the ear of both Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the top brass of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).
Fuad Shukr spent his entire adult life moving up Hizbullah's ranks as a terrorist operative, soldier, and commander.
His targeting sends a stark message: if Hizbullah kills Israelis, then Israel will no longer be deterred from carrying out operations deep inside Lebanon, even against the group's leaders in Beirut.
The writer is director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Palestinian Arabs
- Ismail Haniyeh's Place in Palestinian Politics - Khaled Abu Toameh
For both Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas's "political bureau," Ismail Haniyeh, has long been a political rival whose departure from the Palestinian political arena will not be missed.
Public opinion polls conducted by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research over the past decade have consistently shown that Haniyeh is the only Hamas leader who could defeat Abbas in a Palestinian presidential election. Abbas and the PA leadership were also concerned about Haniyeh's success in the diplomatic and international arena, where he was often received during visits to Arab and Islamic countries as a legitimate leader of the Palestinians.
Haniyeh was one of several Hamas leaders who left Gaza in the past few years. According to Palestinian sources, they did not feel comfortable in the presence of Yahya Sinwar, especially after he - together with Mohammed Deif and slain Hamas operative Saleh Arouri - took complete control of Hamas's armed wing. Sinwar and Deif did their utmost to marginalize and humiliate Haniyeh. According to some reports, Sinwar and Deif were unhappy with how Haniyeh and the outside leadership of Hamas were conducting the ceasefire negotiations.
The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Weekend Features
- In Israel I Heard the Cries of a Determined People - Will Selber
Americans have largely been spared from war. In a country where only 1% serve and even fewer see combat, almost no one understands that war will always be messy.
It's different in Israel, where most serve.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is small but mighty. Its elite units - fighter pilots, special forces, paratroopers - are world class. But it can't withstand a year-long war without relying on its reserves, composed of 465,000 Israelis. Everyone is affected by the war. Two days after my official retirement from the Air Force, I went to Israel to see what it's like when a nation unites behind a war effort, as our country once did.
My tour guide, Nuri, was a young commando who had fought on Oct. 7.
As we walked to the site of the Nova Music Festival, I was immediately overwhelmed.
I have been to many killing fields in Iraq and Afghanistan, but this was different. The unspeakable atrocities on those happy, optimistic young people - not just Jews, but Arabs and others, too - inspired an extra level of grief and anger. Here, 364 people were massacred and 40 more were taken hostage. Most of them were Jews murdered for being Jews, but some were gentiles who were murdered just for being around Jews.
The terrorists, who didn't know about the festival beforehand, marveled at their fortune to descend upon young, helpless Jews celebrating life. And what followed was bloodlust in full array. Men, drunk with violence, luxuriated in massacring Jews. "We came here, and to be honest, all the bad guys were already gone," Nuri told me, "but there were all the bodies. They were everywhere."
The area now bloomed with memorials.
There were mourners everywhere. Families weeping by the memorials of their loved ones. But the cries I heard were those of a determined people being reminded that many of their neighbors just really want to kill them.
The writer is a retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer with 20 years in the intelligence community. (Bulwark)
Observations:
- The preemptive targeting of Hizbullah military leader Fuad Shukr and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh are a direct challenge to Iran and its proxy strategy. If Israel indeed stands behind Ismail Haniyeh's killing, Israel's security officials and intelligence community can claim a brilliant military and intelligence achievement in both cases.
- Israel is telling Iran and its proxies that if they don't stop, it won't hesitate to head into a full-scale war not only with Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis, but also with Tehran itself. In such a scenario, the home front will become the main front and will be subject to missile and kamikaze drone attacks launched not only from Lebanon and Yemen, but mainly from Iran.
- Israel will also likely face an Iranian attempt to deploy armed Shia fighters from Iran, Iraq and Syria into the conflict, and perhaps even Houthis from Yemen who will be transferred to Syria or join Hizbullah in Lebanon in attempts to carry out raids on the northern border.
- The Iranians correctly assume that Israel consulted with the U.S. before targeting Fuad Shukr. They assume that Washington approved this operation against someone who was partly responsible for the massacre of U.S. Marines in Beirut and was on the U.S. most wanted list. The Iranians also assume, probably correctly, that if they attack Israel as they did on April 14, they might face a U.S.-led coalition as a result.
- The Iranians prefer that a war take place when Iran already has operational nuclear weapons in hand. Then, it and its proxies would enjoy immunity like North Korea.
Iran knows that the U.S. will be less likely to rush to Israel's aid once it has nuclear weapons. However, building a nuclear explosive device that can be mounted on a missile won't be ready for at least a year to a year and a half. Therefore, the timing for a full-scale war isn't convenient for Tehran right now.
- The targeting of Ismail Haniyeh deals a severe blow to Gazans and the Palestinians in general. It also proves that Tehran is, to a large extent, a paper tiger compared to Israel's intelligence, technological and aerial power. The same is true for the operation in Beirut.
Support Daily Alert Daily Alert is the work of a team of expert analysts who find the most important and timely articles from around the world on Israel, the Middle East and U.S. policy. No wonder it is read by heads of government, leading journalists, and thousands of people who want to stay on top of the news. To continue to provide this service, Daily Alert requires your support. Please take a moment to click here and make your contribution through the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. |