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In-Depth Issues:
IDF Presents Preemptive Strike Plan on Iran, Hizbullah to Senior Leaders ( Maariv-Jerusalem Post)
Senior IDF officers have proposed to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to wait for an attack from Hizbullah but to initiate a preemptive Israeli strike, Israel's Channel 13 reported Monday.
The senior officers said, "We must undermine the enemy's perception that we are waiting for their move."
"The chances of escalation on the northern front are increasing regardless. It would be wise to be the ones leading this initiative."
U.S. to Supply Israel with 1,000-Pound Bombs - Lilach Shoval ( Israel Hayom)
The Biden administration has lifted its restrictions on supplying Israel with half-ton bombs (1,000-pound), a decision that was made even before the current escalation. These munitions had previously been withheld for months.
However, the shipment of 1,800 one-ton bombs remains held up by the administration.
The U.S. has also recently eased restrictions and transferred air-to-air missiles from U.S. military warehouses in Israel. These are crucial for intercepting unmanned aerial vehicles.
IDF Disputes CNN Report on Hamas Brigades in Gaza - Yoav Zitun ( Ynet News)
In response to a CNN investigation claiming that most Hamas brigades in Gaza remain intact, the IDF said on Monday that intelligence indicates that most Hamas brigades have been dismantled.
"The assessment is that most battalions are at a low level of readiness and can no longer function as a military framework," the army said.
"The claims in the article misrepresent the situation of Hamas."
The U.S. Owes Israel $5 Million - Gil Troy ( Wall Street Journal)
Israel killed Fuad Shukr, a leader of Hizbullah's Jihad Council who orchestrated the Beirut Marine barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. servicemen in 1983.
The State Department subsequently offered a $5 million reward for information on him and listed him as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist."
America should now cut Israel a $5 million check.
Negotiating with jihadists telegraphs weakness. Americans should stop demanding ceasefires and trying to mollify the perpetrators of terror.
Only by projecting power, unifying the West behind Israel, and intimidating Iran and its lackeys can the U.S. restore global stability.
America owes Israel a debt of gratitude for taking the lead - plus $5 million.
The writer, a Distinguished Scholar of North American History at McGill University, is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute.
Targeted Killings May Help Prevent Wars and Save Lives - David Suissa ( Los Angeles Jewish Journal)
The targeted killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the #2 man in Hizbullah, Fouad Shukr, "will undoubtedly impact Hamas and Hizbullah capabilities going forward," said Israel Policy Forum analyst Michael Koplow.
"The aim was to demonstrate to Iran that Israel is not the paper tiger on the verge of collapse that many of Israel's foes increasingly see when they look toward Jerusalem, and to put to rest any doubts about Israeli capabilities."
If your goal is to deter your enemy, taking down the top players can be highly effective. You want the kind of enemy who is afraid of making the wrong move.
IDF Unveils New Technology to Warn Israelis of Emergency Events - Amir Bohbot ( Jerusalem Post)
The IDF Home Front Command has developed a new technology to contact individuals directly on their mobile phones during large-scale emergency events.
All mobile phone owners in the threatened area will receive an immediate message on their screen accompanied by a warning sound.
The Plot to Turn a Tiny Scottish Island into an Islamic State - Ed Cumming ( Telegraph-UK)
Sheikh Yasser al-Habib, 45, a Muslim cleric based in Fulmer, Buckinghamshire, and his supporters in the Mahdi Servants Union (MSU), were reportedly seeking to buy Torsa, a 270-acre island off the coast of Western Scotland, for 3.5 million pounds.
In videos posted to his Fadak TV channel, al-Habib says the island represents an "irreplaceable opportunity" to create a "homeland" for his followers - a private Islamic state within the UK, run by a group of Shia Muslims intent on imposing strict Sharia law, out of sight of the meddling authorities on the mainland.
He promised to negotiate with the UK government to allow Muslims from "all over the world" to be given a visa to visit. The MSU say their new homeland will be a staging ground for the coming of their messiah, known as Mahdi.
Alastair Redman, a councillor for the Kintyre and Islands ward, said it was unthinkable that the island could become an outpost for extremism.
A source close to Torsa's owners said, "The island is absolutely not being sold to this cleric. This appears to be a fundraising effort rather than anything based in reality."
Only 5% of Britain's Muslim population is Shia, totaling 200,000 people.
Politicians have called on Fadak TV to be shut down for its repeated attacks on the Sunni population.
After the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year, al-Habib said, "Who among us does not enjoy retaliation of the Zionist enemy. We were all buoyed by the news."
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- U.S. Troops Wounded in Rocket Attack at Iraqi Air Base - Idrees Ali
At least five U.S. personnel were injured, one seriously, in a Katyusha rocket attack on the Al-Asad airbase in western Iraq on Monday. (Reuters)
See also Defense Secretary Austin: Attack on U.S. Forces in Iraq a "Dangerous Escalation"
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to Israel's defense from threats posed by Iran, Lebanese Hizbullah, and other Iran-aligned militia groups. "We agreed the attack from Iran-aligned militias on U.S. forces stationed at Al-Asad airbase in western Iraq marked a dangerous escalation, and I updated Minister Gallant on measures to strengthen the U.S. military posture in light of this escalating situation." (X)
- Houthi Drone Expert Killed in U.S. Strike in Iraq - Alex Horton
A Yemeni drone specialist who had traveled to Iraq to train Iranian-backed fighters was among those killed in a U.S. airstrike near Baghdad on July 30, defense officials said.
Four Kataib Hizbullah militia members also were killed in the airstrike. (Washington Post)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israeli Defense Minister: Air Force Preparing for "Quick Transition to Offense" - Emanuel Fabian
Amid heightened tensions over an anticipated Iranian and Hizbullah attack, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday, "Our enemies are carefully considering their steps thanks to the abilities [the IDF]... demonstrated in the last year. However, we must prepare for all possibilities, including a quick transition to offense."
Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi held assessments with U.S. CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, who arrived in Israel on Monday. (Times of Israel)
- Two IDF Soldiers Wounded in Hizbullah Drone Attack - Emanuel Fabian
Two IDF soldiers were wounded in a Hizbullah drone attack near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar in northern Israel early Monday.
(Times of Israel)
- 7 IDF Reservists Wounded in Gaza Grenade Attack - Emanuel Fabian
Seven IDF reservists were wounded, four seriously, from a grenade hurled at them by a Hamas operative in southern Gaza on Monday.
(Times of Israel)
- IDF Kills Hamas Battalion Commander Hiding in Gaza School
The IDF struck Hamas terrorist Jaber Aziz, commander of Hamas's Al-Furqan Battalion, and several other terrorists who were operating in a Hamas command and control center that was embedded within the Hassan Salame and Nasser schools in Gaza City on Sunday, the IDF reported Monday. Aziz played a significant role in planning the Oct. 7 attack and infiltrated Gaza border communities on that day. He was responsible for directing numerous attacks against the IDF and Israel throughout the war.
(Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Targets Key Hamas Weapons Official - Yoav Zitun
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Sunday that the Air Force eliminated Abed Al-Zeriei, a terrorist operative in the Manufacturing Department of Hamas who also served as Hamas's Minister of Economy in Gaza. The Manufacturing Department operates to increase Hamas's weapons capabilities, including by exchanging information with other terrorist organizations across the Middle East.
Al-Zeriei had a significant role in directing Hamas's efforts to seize control of humanitarian aid entering Gaza and in managing Hamas-controlled markets. He was also responsible for the distribution of fuel, gas, and funds for terrorist purposes.
(Ynet News)
- IDF Intends to Remain in Philadelphi Corridor
Maj.-Gen. Eliezer Toledano, head of the IDF's Strategic Division, said the military does not intend to withdraw from the Philadephi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, Israel's Channel 11 reported Monday. Toledano told the government that the IDF is a long way from finishing its work in the Corridor, which had strategic importance for the war in Gaza.
"We are not saying that (the Philadelphia axis should be vacated). The IDF is not saying that Philadelphi should be given to a foreign force, but that it should continue to be cleansed of terror both above and underground." (Jerusalem Post)
- Hizbullah Searching for Leak that Led to Commander's Elimination - Danielle Greyman-Kennard
Hizbullah is searching for how the location of its commander Fuad Shukr became known to Israel, allowing for his elimination in Beirut, the Hizbullah-affiliated news outlet Al-Janoubia reported on Saturday. A source said Shukr avoided all technology that required his voice, facial recognition, or thumbprint. He also had his whereabouts heavily coordinated by security.
The Hizbullah party leadership has become certain that its ranks are infiltrated by networks of Israeli agents at high levels. Hizbullah has begun arresting officials within their group who knew Shukr's location.
(Jerusalem Post)
- Palestinian Authority Fails in Attempt to Arrest Top Islamic Jihad Official in West Bank - Jack Khoury
Palestinian Authority security forces attempted to apprehend Mohammed Jaber, the leader of the terror group Tulkarm Brigades, in the West Bank on Friday, but were forced to retreat upon encountering resistance from armed men.
Jaber, a high-ranking Islamic Jihad official, was hospitalized after sustaining injuries while assembling an explosive device. Jaber is known to have seized vehicles and weapons from PA security forces.
(Ha'aretz)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War
- Ismail Haniyeh's Killing in Iran Brings Israel Closer to Victory - Seth J. Frantzman
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Iran on July 31, is presented as the political face of Hamas, as if he is different than the military part of Hamas that led the attack on Israel on Oct. 7. It's clear Haniyeh supported the attack. Shortly afterward, he gathered Hamas leaders in Doha for a video where the men prayed and celebrated, and later spoke in praise of the attack. Haniyeh was the one who galvanized support for Hamas after Oct. 7.
It was Haniyeh who led Gaza down the road of becoming a springboard for ever-larger attacks on Israel. Hamas acquired longer-range rocket technology with Iran's backing, transforming its short-range Qasam rocket arsenal into a colossus of long-range rockets that could hit Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Haniyeh also helped secure more funding from Qatar that enabled it to build hundreds of miles of tunnels and position its rockets to fire barrages of more than 100 rockets at a time. (National Interest)
Iran
- Ways to Confront Iran - Sen. Lindsey Graham
Iran and its proxies have intensified their attacks on Israel and on U.S. interests in the Middle East, beginning with Hamas's barbaric incursion of Oct. 7. For too long, the U.S. has at best played defense when it comes to Iran. It's time to go on offense.
To that end, I propose a terrorism tariff. If a nation buys oil or gas from Iran, the U.S. would levy a tariff on all imports from that country. By buying cheap Iranian oil, China, India and others are enriching the ayatollahs and blatantly violating sanctions. Make these countries choose between cheap Iranian oil and normal business with the U.S.
A second proposal is a resolution declaring that any Hizbullah attack on Israel is an Iranian attack on Israel. Iranian oil refineries should be on the target list if Hizbullah or other Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel.
A third proposal lays out definitive red lines for Iran's nuclear program. If Iran crosses these lines, the U.S. would be authorized to use military force against Iran. When the ayatollahs chant "death to Israel" and "death to America," they mean it - and we should take them seriously.
It is hard to imagine a worse disaster for the world than if the ayatollahs acquire nuclear capability. If it is determined that Iran holds uranium enriched to weapons-grade level, possesses a nuclear warhead, or has obtained a delivery vehicle capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that threatens the national security interests of the U.S., then the president would be authorized to take military action.
(Wall Street Journal)
- The West Is Too Soft on Iran - Editorial
America's decision to deploy additional jets and warships to help defend Israel from a possibly imminent major attack by the Iranian regime is welcome and necessary. But this renewed crisis is largely due to the West's cowardice and inconsistency in dealing with the Middle East. America, Britain and Europe have been far too soft on the Iranian regime for well over a decade, and have increasingly proved reluctant to fully support Israel after it fell victim to barbaric Hamas terrorists last year.
Following the atrocities of Oct. 7, the West signaled that its support for Israel was ironclad. It has proved anything but. Regrettably, in mooting a ban on arms sales to Israel and refusing to challenge the arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the new Labour government is also proving itself to be an unreliable ally of the region's only pro-Western democracy. A lasting peace in the region will only ever be possible if Iran is finally contained properly and Hamas and Hizbullah effectively dealt with.
(Sunday Telegraph-UK)
- Saudi Expert Cites Israeli Military Superiority over Iran
Iran expert Jaber Rajabi told Saudi Arabia's Al Hadath news on Monday
that Israel possesses advanced military equipment, including fifth-generation fighter jets and advanced defense systems, that can efficiently address any Iranian threat.
He explained that the IDF has extensive experience in wars and also noted Israel's relationship with the U.S., a global superpower.
Rajabi emphasized Israel's intelligence expertise, while Iranian intelligence has suffered several setbacks, breaches, and failures in protecting senior figures. Israel has also demonstrated superiority in carrying out covert operations in Iran, while Iran's attempts to target Israeli objectives in third countries often fail.
(Maariv-Jerusalem Post)
Israeli Security
- Israel Reestablished Deterrence. It Should be Praised, Not Admonished - Arsen Ostrovsky and John Spencer
The elimination of arch-terrorists Mohammed Deif of Hamas and Fuad Shukr of Hizbullah, as well as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, was entirely legal, just, and moral. The world today is a safer place without them and Israel ought to congratulated for their elimination. Each one was responsible for the blood of thousands of innocent civilians, including Americans.
To those who insist that the elimination of Haniyeh and Shukr will only escalate regional tensions, we ask: Where have you been the last 10 months?
Hamas initiated the massacre of Oct. 7 and were joined by Hizbullah the day after, which has fired over 7,250 rockets at northern Israel from Lebanon.
Arsen Ostrovsky is a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security. John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. (Newsweek)
- The West's Fear of Escalation Is Not Helpful - Prof. Efraim Inbar
The many calls for restraint by Israel are not very useful. These pronouncements that express genuine reluctance to use force are seen by most people in the Middle East as weakness. In many situations, climbing the escalation ladder is probably the best way to put an end to violence.
For years, Israel preferred to absorb many rocket attacks and refrained from a strong response that could lead to escalation. This only gave time to Hamas to build its military capabilities and acquire the might to withstand an Israeli offensive now in its tenth month.
Similarly, Israel's reluctance to preempt in Lebanon allowed Hizbullah to build a formidable missile arsenal. Hizbullah grew to become a monster that since Oct. 8 has conducted, undeterred, a war of attrition against Israel. The continued existence of over 100,000 missiles in the hands of Hizbullah is an intolerable situation for Israel. Only an escalation intended to eliminate the missile arsenal can put an end to the war of attrition. The "diplomatic solution" the Americans and the French are pushing for in Lebanon is a mirage. Hizbullah cannot be trusted to abide for long by any agreement.
Being perceived as having a predilection for escalation helps deterrence. Deterrence must be maintained over time by the occasional use of force.
Restraint may be construed as weakness and invite aggression. This is the way the bullies read things in the Middle East. In the final analysis, the only effective persuasion is the use of force. This requires willingness to escalate the struggle to defeat the Islamist radicals.
The writer, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), was the founding director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. (JISS)
- In the Middle East, If You Shun Conflict, It Will Come for You on the Enemy's Terms - Jake Wallis Simons
To the jihadi ear, the White House's calls for calm sound like an invitation to push the campaign for Israel's destruction one step further. Only a madman would want war. But for thousands of years, we have known that appeasement isn't the way to avoid it.
The West has somehow forgotten that if you shun conflict, it will come for you on the enemy's terms. The West pays lip service to the Jewish state's "right to self-defense," but when Israel retaliates, it is accused of warmongering or genocide. In the ears of many Israelis, calls for "de-escalation" sound like requests to bare their necks for the knife. Strength is the currency of the Middle East.
Jerusalem is in the very jaws of the jackal, facing attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq and Yemen. Behind it all is the octopus of Tehran, whose tentacles reach as far as London. Sooner or later, the West must wake up. Nobody wants war. But how to respond when war wants you?
The writer is editor of the Jewish Chronicle-UK.
(Telegraph-UK)
Palestinian Arabs
- Palestinians Love Hamas - Bassam Tawil
The Palestinian Authority (PA) should have been happy over the death of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas, the group that carried out a violent and brutal coup against Abbas loyalists in Gaza in 2007. Instead, the PA and its leaders have been mourning Haniyeh's death.
By hailing Haniyeh as a "great leader," Abbas and his PA cohorts are sending a message to all Palestinians that the murderous Hamas leader is their role model. It is no wonder that thousands of Palestinians took to the streets of the PA-controlled areas of the West Bank to mourn the killing of Haniyeh and voice support for Hamas. It is no wonder that Hamas remains extremely popular among the Palestinians.
Abbas and the PA have once again served as a reminder that they share the same goal as Hamas: glorify terrorism and destroy Israel. (Gatestone Institute)
Observations:
- Eliminating key leaders of terror organizations is a practice often used by states such as the U.S. and Israel in their war against terror. No one expects that killing these figures will - by itself - bring about the defeat of these organizations.
- Yet those who use this method of fighting terror consider this tool to be quite effective and the terror organizations themselves probably think the same, judging by their efforts to prevent it from happening.
- It inflicts psychological damage on them and a very painful hit to their morale - and exposes how easily they can be penetrated and how vulnerable they are.
- It is supposed to sow fear and distrust in their ranks, especially among the remaining leaders. It may degrade the quality of their leadership and weaken their operational competence.
- True, in some cases the successor may be even more dangerous than the outgoing leader, but in most cases the replacement is less impressive. It is also a way of handing these terrorists the punishment they deserve and preventing them from carrying out more terror operations.
- If the eliminations repeat themselves within a relatively short period of time, are directed against the entire leadership echelon, and are part of a wider effort to weaken
and defeat the terror organization, their impact can be more significant.
The writer, Director, National Security and Middle East Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division.
See also Video - Iran’s Declared Attack on Israel: What Surprises Does Israel Have Up Its Sleeve? - Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser interviewed by Dr. Dan Diker (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
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