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In-Depth Issues:
U.S. Stalls Israeli Preemptive Strikes - Ron Ben-Yishai ( Ynet News)
Israel is being pressured and incentivized by Washington to avoid a preemptive strike that might trigger a regional war.
A preemptive strike on Iran is complex militarily due to its distance and size.
On the other hand, Israel could deliver an effective preemptive strike against Hizbullah.
Israel is ready to act now, at a moment's notice. The plans, weapons and aircraft are prepared.
Yet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the defense establishment agree that the IDF will not launch a preemptive strike to avoid the regional war that the U.S. fears.
The almost certain scenario is that if the IDF launched a preemptive strike on Hizbullah, similar to Israel's actions at the start of the 2006 Lebanon War when it neutralized Hizbullah's heavy Zelzal missiles within 39 minutes, Iran and its proxies would likely join the fight, leading to the regional war the U.S. is determined to prevent.
An announcement that the U.S. is granting Israel permission to utilize $3.5 billion from the $14.1 billion aid package approved by Congress six months ago to purchase U.S. weapons and military equipment serves as one of the "carrots" the administration uses to reward Jerusalem for "good behavior."
U.S. Strikes at Houthi Targets in Yemen after Claim of Attack on Destroyers - Renee Maltezou ( Reuters)
U.S. military forces struck at targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen on Wednesday, destroying two drones, a Houthi ground control station, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, U.S. Central Command said.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said earlier that the Houthis had launched drones against the U.S. destroyer Cole and fired a number of ballistic missiles at the U.S. destroyer Laboon on Wednesday.
A Show of Palestinian Support for Hamas in the West Bank - Raja Abdulrahim ( New York Times)
On the day that Hamas's political leader was targeted in Iran, small groups of Palestinians in a number of West Bank cities turned out to protest, some chanting pro-Hamas slogans and waving the group's green flag.
This outpouring of sympathy was notable because the Palestinian Authority generally has shown little tolerance for such open shows of support for its main rival in the past.
Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the Palestinian Authority has been losing support to factions like Hamas that favor armed struggle and are actively fighting Israel, according to a recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.
"The PA is reading the room right now" said Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestinian analyst at the International Crisis Group. "If they were to clamp down on Hamas supporters, it would be absolutely disastrous."
In a video of one protest in the West Bank city of Jenin on July 31, one Palestinian man yelled, "We from the land of Jenin affirm that we are all Hamas."
Ms. Mustafa added, "In terms of Hamas's popularity, yes, they are the de facto leaders of Palestinians, whether we like it or not."
Transcript: Benjamin Netanyahu's Interview with TIME ( TIME)
TIME interviewed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an hour on August 4, 2024.
Netanyahu discussed the possibility of all-out war with Iran and Hizbullah, his handling of Israel's war against Hamas, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, the prospects for Israeli-Saudi normalization, the U.S.-Israel relationship, and the future of Israel and the Middle East.
Israel Sells Arrow Missile Defense to Unnamed Country for $1.9 Billion - Navit Zomer ( Ynet News)
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) said on Thursday that it signed a $1.9 billion deal to sell the Arrow air defense system to an unnamed country over seven years.
The demand for Israeli-made weapon systems is at an all-time high, especially after they showed excellent results during the war.
Germany purchased the Arrow missile defense system from IAI in 2023, at an estimated cost of $3.5 billion.
IAI said it had orders in the pipeline valued at $19 billion.
Foreign Doctors Answer Call to Help in Israel's Hospitals and Rehab Centers - Diana Bletter ( Times of Israel)
Retired U.S. Army Brig.-Gen. Robert Ezenauer, 70, a pediatric ophthalmologist, volunteered to fill in for two weeks at Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba to replace doctors who had been called up for reserve duty.
Since the beginning of the war, approximately 400 doctors and 30 health professionals from the U.S. and other countries have arrived in Israel to assist in treating the large number of injured or to fill in for Israeli medical staff who are called to military duty.
Some 7,000 doctors registered to volunteer at a website launched shortly after the war began for medical professionals. They will be contacted if needed.
Since the start of the war, 26 doctors - mostly from the U.S., but also from Canada, Hungary, and France - have volunteered at Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya. Three have come back for a second round.
Dr. Mark Kissin, a vascular surgeon in New York, came to volunteer in October, together with thoracic surgeon Dr. David Zeltsman. "This was the most meaningful thing I've done in my professional life," Kissin said.
Dr. Samuel Esterson, a physical therapist, came two times to volunteer at the Kaylie Rehabilitation Medical Center adjacent to Ofakim.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- U.S. Warns Iran Against Attacking Israel -
Michael R. Gordon
A U.S. official said, "The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high....There is a serious risk of consequences for Iran's economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path."
Officials said the U.S. message to Tehran wasn't intended as a threat of U.S. military action but was intended as a warning about the risks of provoking a robust military response from Israel. But the U.S. has also made clear that it is ready to use force to defend Israel, as it did in April.
(Wall Street Journal)
- U.S. Decides Not to Sanction IDF Unit over Allegations of Rights Abuses - Ellen Knickmeyer
The State Department said Friday it has opted against blocking aid to an Israeli military unit over alleged rights abuses, believed to be the Netzah Yehuda battalion.
The State Department said it had received additional information from Israel about its handling of the case. "After thoroughly reviewing that information, we have determined that violations by this unit have also been effectively remediated....This unit can continue receiving security assistance," the State Department said.
(AP)
- Australian Military Expert Affirmed Tragic Death of Aid Workers in Gaza Was Not Deliberate, Vindicating Israel - Salo Aizenberg
Air Chief Marshal Mark Binskin, an Australian military expert tasked with investigating the tragic death of 7 World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza on April 1, 2024, has affirmed that their death was not deliberate, vindicating Israel. He assessed that unexpected gunmen were with the convoy and looked like Hamas.
Having armed guards on humanitarian aid convoys that are fully coordinated with the IDF is unusual and the guards were not coordinated with the IDF. One of them fired his weapon into the air on the trailer of the WCK truck, which was deemed "consistent with Hamas hijacking the aid convoy." As two to four gunmen
moved around the escort vehicles, IDF officials classified the gunmen as Hamas. (X)
Read the Report (Australian Department of Foreign Affairs)
- U.S. Troops Attacked in Syria - Phil Stewart
Several U.S. and coalition personnel were wounded in a drone attack on Friday at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in northeastern Syria, a U.S. official told Reuters. Similar attacks in the past have been carried out by Iran-backed groups. The U.S. has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq, who are on a mission to advise and assist local forces to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State. (Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israel Names 19 Terrorists Killed in Military Headquarters at Gaza School - Emanuel Fabian
The IDF and Israel Security Agency on Saturday night named 19 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror operatives killed in an airstrike on a Hamas and Islamic Jihad command room embedded within a mosque at the Taba'een school in Gaza City. The IDF said the strike was carried out using three "precision munitions"
and that footage after the strike showed that there was no major damage to the surrounding school complex. It also said that the missiles "could not have caused the damage that corresponds to the casualty reports of the government media office in Gaza."
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said, "Increasingly in recent months Hamas has focused on exploiting school buildings, often where civilians are sheltering inside, to use them as military facilities, command and control centers, for storing weapons, and to execute terrorist attacks."
"Over the last few weeks, our intelligence has been closely monitoring an active Hamas and Islamic Jihad military facility, where approximately two dozen Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants were operating. After we received clear intelligence of the threat posed by these terrorists and in accordance with international humanitarian law, we took numerous steps to mitigate the risk to civilians, including using aerial surveillance prior to the strike and selecting very precise munitions to avoid civilian casualties....Early this morning, the IDF conducted a precision strike against the terrorists in one specific building of the compound - an area that, according to our intelligence, no women and children were present."
According to military assessments, Hamas operatives are struggling to remain inside tunnels and are increasingly moving to above-ground sites, while hiding among innocents. (Times of Israel)
- Israel Closing In on Hamas Leader Sinwar - Avi Ashkenazi
An Israeli security source estimates that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is running out of places to hide. Sinwar is almost alone at the top of Hamas. His close friends in the senior military ranks, as well as senior officials, have been eliminated or have disappeared. "Every day, he has trouble finding places where he can hide. The list of associates and confidants is being reduced," said a security source. Sinwar's movement area, like that of other senior Hamas officials, is getting smaller and smaller.
Recently, the IDF detected ten attempts by Hamas members to move through the Rafah beaches to the Egyptian side of the border. Navy ships eliminated all the terrorists. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Aggressive Moves by Iran Require Response - Meir Ben Shabbat
It appears that Washington is seeking to leverage the tensions with Iran to accelerate the promotion of a regional arrangement that would also include Gaza. It can be assumed that administration officials are trying to secure Israeli agreement to end the war in Gaza in a way that would allow the Iranians to market it as an achievement.
The position of Israel's political echelon is that a ceasefire in Gaza should be limited in time and without giving up Israeli control over the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor. At this point, concessions beyond this on Israel's part will provide a lifeline to Hamas and allow it to recover, consolidate its governance, and renew military capabilities.
The causes of the current clash between Israel and Iran lie in the aggressive moves the regime is taking to realize its vision of achieving regional hegemony and destroying Israel. The ring of fire that this regime has built around Israel through its many proxy forces is one component. Its significance was well demonstrated in the current war. An additional component is the regime's advanced efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.
Iran's moves pose an existential threat to Israel. Israel is behaving as required in the face of such a threat, demonstrating determination, self-confidence, and high intelligence and operational capabilities. In Iran and Lebanon, they are well aware of the damage Israel can inflict on their critical infrastructures.
The Iranian threat is a challenge not only for Israel. Iran is a key player in shaping the axis of countries opposing the U.S. and the West. Its influence and actions do not stop at the borders of the Middle East. There are red lines whose crossing will compel Israel to act. This is well understood in Tehran, Beirut, and Washington.
The writer, a former Israeli national security advisor, is chairman of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy in Jerusalem. (Israel Hayom)
- Tehran and Its Allies Aren't Ready for a Full-Scale Conflict with Israel and the U.S. - Sune Engel Rasmussen
Iran can't afford a war with Israel, which would likely pull in the U.S. For decades Tehran has preferred to harry its rivals in the region through a network of foreign militias.
Tehran-backed Hizbullah also has more to lose from escalating its 10-month cross-border battle with Israel into a full-scale war. While Hizbullah has a missile arsenal that could punish Israel severely, its leaders have watched Israel demolish much of Gaza since the Oct. 7 attacks and pick off its leadership - something Israel has vowed to replicate in Lebanon if provoked.
Both Iran and Hizbullah are penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Israel has signaled its readiness to reply quickly to any strike and even pre-empt one if necessary.
Israel might use any Iranian-orchestrated attack as an excuse to strike back even harder.
The last time Hizbullah fought a war with Israel was in 2006. Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, said, "The situation is totally different from the one in 2006. Lebanon has gone through economic collapse, people lost their savings in the banks, the currency lost 98% of its value, unemployment is high. Hizbullah's constituency in the south lost their houses once. They don't want to do it a second time. The timing is not right for a war with Israel." (Wall Street Journal)
The Gaza War
- The IDF Bombed a Hamas HQ, Not a School - Ben-Dror Yemini
Israel is not Hamas. It does not set out to hurt innocent bystanders. Whenever civilians are harmed, Israel is slammed in the world press before any investigation into the incident even begins. Hamas has a method. It positions its command posts among civilians. The terrorists know that using civilians as human shields is the most effective way to cause Israel harm.
Hamas has been inflating the number of civilian casualties and media outlets, that should know better, rely on their figures. Most reporters covering the war opt to ignore Hamas crimes as slamming Israel has become the norm.
On Saturday, Israel targeted a Hamas command center inside a mosque located in a school compound in Gaza. Hamas said displaced civilians were sheltering there but that is a lie. Israel did not target a school or a mosque. The attack was on Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists. Troops operating in the area found tunnel shafts and weapons in nearly every building. (Ynet News)
- Medical Report: Injury to Detained Nukhba Terrorist Was Self-Inflicted - Raanan Ben-Zur
A medical report by Prof. Alon Pikarsky, head of the Department of General Surgery at Hadassah Ein Kerem Medical Center in Jerusalem, presented Thursday to a military court, suggests that the rectal tear injury to a Palestinian Nukhba terrorist detained at the Sde Teiman detention facility was self-inflicted rather than caused by IDF soldiers.
The incident has sparked nationwide controversy and drew global attention to the treatment of Palestinian prisoners, as reservist guards at the facility were apprehended by military police.
The report, based on the terrorist's medical records, says that there was no evidence of trauma to his anus upon arrival at the hospital, and a CT scan revealed no unusual problems. After the tear was discovered, the terrorist underwent surgery that included an examination of the area, which again found no signs of trauma.
(Ynet News)
Other Issues
- Retired Generals to ICC: Prosecutor Has No Evidence for Allegations Against Israel - Jeremy Sharon
The High Level Military Group (HLMG), an international group of retired generals and senior military officers, filed an amicus brief with the International Criminal Court last week stating that ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan's claims that Israel deliberately starved Palestinians and intentionally targeted civilians during the current war in Gaza lack evidence and do not stand up to scrutiny.
The group argued that arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were unjustified owing to Israeli efforts to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza and the IDF's rigorous efforts to avoid civilian casualties.
The signatories to HLMG's brief included the former head of the Italian armed forces, General Vincenzo Camporini; retired Lt.-Gen. David Deptula of the U.S. Air Force; UK Col. (ret.) Richard Kemp; and other generals and senior officers from the British and French armies.
They said, "Should the court approve the requested arrest warrants, it is our professional military opinion that this would set standards that are unbearable and unrealistic with regards to military operations and the facilitation of humanitarian activities during active hostilities, and standards which would be unacceptable for other democracies and their armed forces (including our own) that engage in urban warfare."
"The resources dedicated by the IDF to these [humanitarian aid] efforts, the directives and commands we saw, and the commanders we met all suggest that there is a genuine, ongoing and concerted effort to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza, in direct contradiction to the claims of the Prosecutor." Food insecurity in Gaza was due to the "unavoidable effects of large-scale urban warfare," as well as Hamas's role in hijacking aid consignments. (Times of Israel)
- Pro-Palestinian Protesters Disrupt Children's Science Show in London - Joe Pinkstone
The Science Museum: The Live Stage Show performance at the New Wimbledon Theater in London was disrupted on Tuesday when protesters, orchestrated by Parents for Palestine, unfurled a banner as others got on the stage, chanting and waving scarves. The protesters said they were asking the Science Museum "to drop its sponsorship deal with Adani Green Energy," a subsidiary of the Adani Group, which they said manufactures drones with Israeli arms companies.
One parent in attendance, named Rose, said, "We're sitting there getting ready for the show and then there's this lady with a mask over her face and then she starts chanting. And then after that, I see a big banner drop from the top of the theater and then from that everything is just disrupted. There are parents with their children next to me and their kids are crying their eyes out because it's quite scary. Security has come along and ushered some people out, but then some other people have got up on the stage." (Telegraph-UK)
- This Is Why Jews Won't Flee Israel - Zina Rakhamilova
It has been 10 months of war in Israel with no end in sight. The days following Oct. 7 were the worst of our lives. It became a regular occurrence to hear from friends and neighbors: "My cousin died at Nova" or "My friend from school is a hostage."
There was a devastating sadness everywhere. Our streets were plastered with hostage posters, half of our cities felt empty because so many reservists were called up. I received more phone calls than I can count from friends and family, begging me to get on a plane and leave.
Yet the thought of leaving felt worse than running into a shelter from rockets. Tens of thousands of Israelis - civilians and reservists - had rushed back to Israel to help the Jewish state in its time of need. There was a collective understanding that if the Jewish people don't have Israel, then we have nothing.
Staying in Israel after October 7 meant I experienced more pain than I had ever felt in my life, but I also saw acts of kindness and unity that exist nowhere else in the world. The way Israeli society rallied and went above and beyond for one another was beautiful and made the whole situation easier to digest.
Now, reports are coming in about the impending attack from Iran, but Israelis are still going about their day. Many are asking us why we would stay in a war zone. The answer might not be a logical one, but the reality is that Israel needs both its army and its civilians. Those of us who choose to stay in Israel during these times do so because this is our home, and we have decided we will not allow terrorism to dictate our lives. (Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- A July report to Congress from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence warned that Iran has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so." Driving the change in the new intelligence assessment is scientific and engineering research work that Iran has been doing over the past year, experts say. In recent months there have been concerns among Israeli and U.S. officials about weaponization-related research being conducted by Iran, including computer modeling and metallurgy.
- Even if Iran weren't to proceed with the development of a bomb, the intelligence report added, Tehran seeks to exploit international worry over the pace of its program "for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure."
- "Now that Iran has mastered the production of weapons-grade uranium, the next logical step is to resume weaponization activities to shorten the time needed to manufacture a nuclear device once a political decision is made," said Gary Samore, director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a former White House official.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July that it would probably take Iran "one or two weeks" to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. Experts say Iran already has enough enriched uranium to be able to fuel multiple nuclear weapons within six months.
- David Albright, a former weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, said it could take Iran less than six months to develop a crude nuclear device and that Iran has managed to deceive the U.S. about its nuclear capabilities in the past.
- "We need a new, honest public discussion on Iran's nuclear-weapons capabilities and the technical and diplomatic structure Tehran has put in place that would allow it to quickly build nuclear weapons while the U.S. is paralyzed in its attempts to avoid a crisis," Albright said.
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