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In-Depth Issues:
Document Reveals Hamas's Heavy Losses in Gaza - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post-Times of Israel)
Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade Commander Rafah Salame, who was killed in an air strike near Khan Yunis along with Hamas military chief Muhammad Deif on July 13, wrote a letter in May to Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar, asking for reinforcements and describing how his forces were significantly damaged, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed on Wednesday.
Salame wrote: "We have lost 90-95% of our rocket capabilities; we have lost some 60% of our personal weapons; and we have lost at least 65-70% of our anti-tank launchers and rockets."
"Most importantly, we have lost at least 50% of our fighters between those who are martyred and wounded," while many others have fled, "and now we are left with 25%."
The IDF found the letter in one of Hamas's headquarters.
See also below Observations: I Fought in Iraq - I Know Israel's Doing All It Can to Save Civilians - General Sir John McColl ( The Times-UK)
Israel Plays an Outsized Role in the Western World's Defense - Lawrence Solomon ( JNS)
Israel devotes a larger proportion of its GDP to arms and security exports than any other country on Earth, and more than 80% supports the world's democracies.
By acting as these democracies' armory and their intelligence shield, Israel plays an outsized role in the Western world's defense.
Israel stands out because of its small size - all other major arms exporters have populations many times that of the Jewish state's 9.9 million.
Almost half of Israel's arms exports support Asian countries that are threatened by China, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India.
The U.S., the world's second-largest democracy and until recently the largest purchaser of Israeli arms, also relies on Israeli innovations to improve the performance of its F-15 and F-16 fighter jets.
The European democracies, which account for 35% of Israel's arms exports, want an Iron Dome missile defense system of their own. To date, 21 countries have joined their European Sky Shield Initiative, ESSI, which has at its heart Israel's Arrow 3 air-defense system.
Finland just purchased the David's Sling defense system and the Baltic countries seek the Iron Dome.
In the Middle East, Israel's military and its intelligence services work with America and other Western allies to neutralize threats from Iran and its proxies.
Israel provided the U.S. with the intelligence needed to target Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force.
Israeli intelligence is credited with saving the lives of hundreds of American servicemen stationed in Iraq and Syria in 2020 and 2021 from Iranian attack.
The late Sen. Daniel Inouye, a former chairman of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said, "Israel's contribution to U.S. military intelligence is greater than all NATO countries combined."
When Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Syria under Bashar Assad came close to acquiring nuclear weapons, and the U.S. refused to act against them, Israel destroyed their nuclear facilities.
While the U.S. does more than any other country to support democracies, in proportion to the size of its economy, Israel contributes five times as much, with little fanfare and less recognition of its large role in thwarting the world's tyrannies.
The writer is a columnist for Canada's National Post and a fellow of the Canadian Institute for Jewish Research.
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The Palestinian Authority Has No Intention of Making Peace with Israel - Bassam Tawil ( Gatestone Institute)
More than 30 years ago, the Israeli government was convinced to sign the Oslo Accord with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), headed by Yasser Arafat.
The assumption was that if you bring Arafat's PLO from the Arab countries to Gaza and the West Bank and help them create a government and police force, the Palestinians would renounce terrorism and give up their dream of destroying Israel.
However, the Palestinian Authority, established in 1994, had no intention of making peace with Israel, and still has not.
Instead of preparing the Palestinians for peace and recognition of Israel's right to exist, Arafat and his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, launched a huge campaign to delegitimize Israel and demonize Jews.
Palestinian leaders continue to praise terrorists as "martyrs" and "heroes" and pay monthly salaries to their families.
Under both Arafat and Abbas, Palestinian terror groups including Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad thrived and formed armies in the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinian leaders did nothing to stop the terrorists.
The Israeli pullout from Gaza in 2005, to enable the Palestinians to create a Dubai on the Mediterranean, instead enabled Hamas and other terror groups to turn the enclave into a huge base for Jihad (holy war) against Israel.
Many Palestinians viewed the withdrawal as an Israeli display of weakness and retreat in the face of rockets and suicide bombings. The thinking among the Palestinians became, "Oh, it's working! So let's do it more!"
The pullout from Gaza only gave the terrorists more confidence and fueled their desire to pursue Jihad against Israel.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Unwilling to Be Human Shields, Some Gazans Turn Gunmen Away from Shelters - Bilal Shbair
When the war forced Nasser al-Zaanin to flee his home in northern Gaza in October, he, along with his adult sons and grandchildren, moved to a school in Deir al Balah that had been turned into a shelter. He helped set up a system of committees that oversaw food, water and medical needs. They had one red line: No armed men were allowed in the compound. Residents wanted to avoid becoming a target for Israeli forces hunting down Hamas militants.
Early in the conflict, Hamas had wanted to station police officers at the compound, but Zaanin said the residents had gathered to stop that. "All the families agreed." Several other residents of school shelters in central Gaza recounted similar stories. "We will quickly kick anyone who has a gun or a rifle out of this school," said Saleh al-Kafarneh, 62, who lives at another government school in Deir al Balah and said he locked the gates at night. "We don't allow anyone to ruin life here, or cause any strike against those civilians and families."
The residents' testimonies also suggested that Hamas's grip on the enclave may be weakened by the war and that ad hoc community groups are starting to operate outside its control. (New York Times)
- Islamists Make Gains in Jordan Vote - Matthew Mpoke Bigg
The Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, won 31 of 138 seats in Jordan's Parliament, according to election results released Wednesday.
Two parties allied with the government secured around 70 seats combined. Independent deputies and those representing smaller parties, as well as deputies selected under a quota system, are also likely to back government policies.
So while Islamists may now have a greater voice in Jordan, the kingdom will probably not be shaken, analysts said.
Neil Quilliam, an expert in Jordanian and regional politics at Chatham House think tank in London, said, "The system is flexible enough to allow the elections and to allow the Islamists to have a voice." Parliament has no direct role in shaping foreign policy, which is overseen by the monarch.
(New York Times)
- One of Two U.S. Aircraft Carriers Leaves the Middle East - Lolita C. Baldor
The USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading home after extending its deployment to
help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and to safeguard U.S. troops. U.S. commanders say the presence of a U.S. aircraft carrier and the warships accompanying it has been an effective deterrent in the region, particularly for Iran.
The USS Abraham Lincoln will remain in the region. (AP)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israeli Troops Raided IRGC Weapons Facility in Syria
Israeli special forces carried out a raid on an Iranian weapons facility in the Masyaf area in Syria on Sunday, in addition to airstrikes targeting a scientific research center reported earlier. Reports Thursday said there were Israeli troops on the ground during the operation. The opposition Syria TV network said that Israeli helicopters did not land but instead hovered as special forces rappelled down ropes.
A number of Syrians were killed, and two to four Iranians were captured.
Israel's Channel 12 reported it was an IDF operation against an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility for the development of ballistic missiles and drones, and which also provides logistical support to Hizbullah.
Israeli troops entered the compound, removed equipment and documents, and then laid explosives to destroy the facility.
(Times of Israel)
- Palestinian Rams Gas Tanker into West Bank Bus Stop, Killing Soldier
Staff Sergeant Geri Gideon Hanghal, 24, was killed when a Palestinian rammed a gas tanker into a bus stop near the Givat Assaf Junction in the West Bank on Wednesday. IDF troops apprehended the driver. Hanghal was from the community of Bnei Menashe Jews from India.
(Jerusalem Post)
See also Video: Palestinian Gas Tanker Rams Israeli Bus Stop - Hanan Greenwood (Israel Hayom)
- 2 IDF Soldiers Killed, 7 Wounded, in Gaza Helicopter Crash - Yonah Jeremy Bob
An IDF helicopter crashed early Wednesday in Rafah, killing two soldiers and wounding seven others on board during the rescue of a wounded soldier in the field.
(Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Officer Who Led Rescue Missions Abroad Seriously Injured in Gaza Tunnel Collapse - Yoav Zitun
Col. (res.) Golan Vach was seriously injured on Tuesday when a tunnel shaft he was in collapsed in central Gaza. Vach previously commanded the IDF Home Front Command's Search and Rescue Unit and led Israeli rescue missions in disaster zones
in Turkey and at the Surfside building collapse near Miami. (Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War
- Former NATO Officers: Israel Nearing War Objectives - Ariel Kahana
Former NATO officers who toured Israel in September commended the Israel Defense Forces' operations and believe Israel is nearing its war objectives. After visiting the Rafah area and the Philadelphi Corridor, they emphatically recommend that Israel maintain its presence in the region. A scheduled visit to the northern city of Kiryat Shmona was called off due to Hizbullah's intense attacks.
Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Marius Dumitru Craciun, former head of Romanian special forces, said, "Critics fail to grasp the nature of this combat environment. This isn't 20th-century warfare - it's 21st-century, fundamentally different. The IDF is employing unprecedented tactics....You can't conclude this until you've cleared everything above and below ground. Hamas had a decade to prepare for this."
Col. (ret.) Richard Kemp, who commanded British forces in Afghanistan, said, "From a professional perspective, the Philadelphi Corridor should not be relinquished. The IDF must maintain control over this border, which essentially serves as Hamas's lifeline. I wouldn't surrender the strategic advantage, particularly in an area where soldiers have already made the ultimate sacrifice."
Q: How can we secure the return of our people?
Kemp: "The strategy involves continuing to dismantle Hamas, clearing tunnels, and persisting in efforts to recover the hostages. The international community, particularly the U.S., should redirect their pressure from Israel making security-compromising concessions to exerting influence on Hamas and Qatari leadership. They possess leverage over Hamas that remains unutilized."
Q: How would you rate the IDF's performance from a professional perspective?
Kemp: "It's been exceptional. They've neutralized numerous terrorists and dismantled extensive infrastructure at a remarkably low cost. Hamas's defeat appears imminent." (Israel Hayom)
- Palestinian Journalist: Barbaric Murder of Six Israeli Hostages by Hamas Contravenes International Law, Muslim Shari'a and Tradition of Prophet Muhammad
Palestinian journalist Abd Al-Bari Fayyad wrote in the Saudi news website Elaph on Sept. 4: "By perpetrating this deed [of murdering six Israeli hostages], Hamas behaved in a barbaric and inhumane manner. This is conduct that the Islamic Shari'a prohibits."
"The Third Geneva Convention defines the treatment of war prisoners from a humane perspective, but Hamas does not adhere to it....The basic principle on which this convention is founded is the obligation to treat war prisoners humanely at all times. According to Article 13, causing the death or endangering the health [of a war prisoner], as well as intimidation and humiliation or any other type of inhuman or demeaning treatment, are violations of this basic principle."
"Furthermore, most of the Muslim laws regarding the treatment of war prisoners are based on precedents that date back to March 624 CE, when the Muslims captured 70 enemy fighters in the Battle of Badr....Holding such a relatively large number of war prisoners was a great challenge. And yet, rather than choose the easier option, which would probably have been less humane - such as to leave them shackled in the open air - some of the 70 were held in a mosque, while the others were divided among the Companions of the Prophet, who hosted them in their homes. The Prophet instructed them to treat the prisoners well."
"Hamas's conduct is condemned by every Muslim and Arab....Following this crime, the coming days may hold surprises regarding the future of Hamas in Gaza. This incident may be the end of the movement's political course [in service of] the Palestinian people - for it has struck a match in the region, a match which is likely to burn it first." (MEMRI)
Iran
- Iran's Involvement in the Oct. 7 Massacre - Dr. Dan Diker
The Oct. 7, 2023, atrocities revealed an Iranian campaign to destroy Israel in a war of attrition, both militarily and by its campaign of international political and psychological warfare. The regime was deeply involved in the planning and execution of Hamas's massacre and hostage-taking. Iran's subsequent missile and drone attack on Israel on April 14, 2024, proved Iran plans to make good on its long-stated intention of dominating the Middle East and, ultimately, the rest of the world, under a nuclear umbrella. Iran has also been deeply involved in influencing U.S. and Arab public opinion through perception warfare on media and social networks.
According to Matthew Levitt, a former senior counterterrorism official at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Hamas began receiving Iranian regime funding in 1987. In 2017, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar confirmed that Iran was Hamas's "largest backer financially and militarily."
Iran's policies and motivation to eliminate Israel are ideological and religiously driven. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has invoked the Iranian Shiite "end of days" belief that the destruction of Israel and the Jews would trigger the emergence of the Mahdi, the Shiite messiah.
The Palestinian cause provides a cover for Iran's greater ambitions in the region. In the Iranian mullahs' view, solidarity means providing weapons and training for martyrs - those who willingly sacrifice themselves for jihad.
Hamas's use of human shields is an expression of the disposability of human life that the Iranian regime encourages. This renders the Palestinian issue a weapon for Iranian supremacy, not subject to political or territorial compromise between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs.
(Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
- The Iranian Strategy of "Wearing Down Political Will" in Israel - Aviram Balleishe
The Iranians are partners in the current negotiations relating to the Gaza war. They seek to end the war, preserve Hamas's rule, and ensure its recovery. The resistance axis and Iran are attempting to end the war in Gaza without a deal.
To help achieve this, they are waging a campaign aimed at influencing public opinion and wearing down political will in Israel, combined with an ongoing war of attrition in Gaza with its continued casualties. New kinds of strikes from the West Bank, including suicide attacks and car bombings, alongside continued rocket fire from the north, further increase the military pressure and create a sense of vulnerability in Israel.
Iranian analysts recommend intensifying the cognitive warfare campaign, using public opinion in a country under attack as a weapon against it. Iran already made successful use of a similar strategy during the student protests in the United States, where the strategy involved turning the protesters against the U.S. itself.
The aim is to undermine Israel's political will so that it will alter its behavior and cease to fight. Iranian analysts claim that, in the wake of the horrific murder of the six kidnapped individuals, Israeli public sentiment can be exploited against the government in a way that weakens the Israeli security establishment's will to continue the war in Gaza. This is the basic strategy of the resistance axis, and fomenting street demonstrations and other pressures on the government is part of the process.
The writer, Senior Director for Security, Diplomacy, and Communications at the Jerusalem Center, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years. (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
Egypt-Israel Relations
- Analyst: Egypt Is Embarrassed to Admit Failure to Control Gaza Border - Dalia Ziada interviewed by Gianluca Pacchiani
Exiled Egyptian analyst Dalia Ziada told the Times of Israel in an interview: "Israel has helped Egypt in the past against Islamist militias in Sinai, and cooperation between the two countries has been very successful in the past. Why doesn't Egypt do the same with Israel now?"
At the same time, Ziada noted that the rhetoric around Hamas has become more positive in official Egyptian media since Oct. 7. Hamas is no longer referred to as a terror organization but as a "resistance group," even though its gunmen have killed Egyptian soldiers and civilians in Sinai in the past.
She said the reasons for Egypt's refusal to cooperate with Israel over the Philadelphi Corridor were opposition of Sinai Bedouin tribes, the embarrassment of the Egyptian leadership over its failure to secure its border with Gaza, and the potential backlash from Egyptian society and the Arab world. For at least two decades, Bedouin tribes in Sinai have profited from smuggling goods and weapons to Gaza.
Despite an Egyptian effort in 2015 to flood the tunnels in cooperation with Israel, the tribes and Hamas found ways to resume operations within two years, thanks to the complacency of corrupt members of Egyptian security forces. "All the official statements coming out of Egypt are insisting that tunnels do not exist, despite the very clear footage that the IDF has shown of the tunnels," Ziada said.
Ziada, an outspoken human rights activist and former director of a think tank that promotes liberal democracy, paid a heavy price for publicly condemning Hamas in her home country, Egypt. In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 savagery, Ziada criticized Hamas and those who justified its actions, calling them "a partner in their crime." A few weeks later, Ziada gave interviews to an Israeli think tank and Israeli public television in which she justified Israel's military response against Hamas.
The backlash was immediate. Complaints were filed with Egyptian prosecutors demanding she be put on trial as a spy for Israel and for inciting war crimes. After she received death threats, she was forced to flee and go into exile in Washington in November. (Times of Israel)
U.S.-Israel Relations
- U.S. Sends Wrong Signals on Israel and Democracy - Lawrence J. Haas
Washington continues to get things backwards. While the U.S. advocates the ideals of freedom and democracy, all too often we take our democratic allies to task even though their people have the means to choose, and change, their own government.
China, Russia, Iran and other like-minded nations are promoting an authoritarian model of governance around the world as an alternative to U.S.-led democracy and their efforts are having a discernible effect.
Rather than chastise the leader of Israel, a vibrant democracy that's fighting wars on multiple fronts, America's leaders should aim their ire at the genocidal autocrats who slaughtered 1,200 Israelis, continue to hold about 100 hostages, threaten to kill them rather than allow their rescue, and continue to oppose any deal that would not let them regroup to launch more attacks on the Jewish state.
The writer is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. (The Hill)
Observations:
- Expressions of support and sympathy for Israel after the brutal massacre of Israeli citizens, led by Hamas on Oct. 7, have rapidly turned into widespread criticism, including from allies. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are accused of the reckless use of force and the murder of civilians, while international organizations have expressed concern about inadequate flows of aid. Last week I visited Israel with a team of military experts from six NATO countries to see for myself.
- I have seen war and know how difficult it can be to minimize civilian casualties. Basing my views about the Israel-Hamas war on UK media coverage, I arrived in Israel critical and skeptical of their military operations. What we, military observers with decades of combined experience in leading NATO armies, saw was the most complex and demanding operational environment any of us had come across, including in Afghanistan and Iraq.
- Our briefing from the independent military legal directorate laid out in detail the rules designed to protect civilian life. The procedures are at least as rigorous as those applied in the UK armed forces. In addition, the Israeli military carries out civilian evacuations of war zones, forgoing the element of surprise, to which it would be entitled in armed conflict.
- Accompanying troops in Rafah, we found that the rules of engagement were being adhered to rigorously and that a significant number of engagements were being aborted because the clearance of civilians could not be verified. The perspectives that we gained indicate that there is balance missing in the reporting of events in Gaza.
- I came away from the trip satisfied that the IDF's operations and rules of engagement were rigorous compared to the British Army and our Western allies.
War is terrible, but sometimes necessary. And Israeli soldiers are fighting in conditions of extraordinary complexity and risk. It's time for the world to have its eyes opened to that.
The writer is a former deputy supreme allied commander of NATO who served for 38 years in the British Army and saw combat in Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan.
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