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In-Depth Issues:
Iran Expected to Attack Israel Despite Severe Damage to Its Air Defense System - Yoni Ben Menachem ( Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
Israel's recent airstrike on Iran has reportedly destroyed all of Iran's strategic air defense capabilities along with its long-range detection radars.
However, Iran is determined to respond to the Israeli attack.
While Israel has limited Iran's ability to produce new missiles, Iran still has an estimated stockpile of 2,000 to 3,000 long-range ballistic missiles, as well as thousands of drones.
The Israeli strike was fully coordinated with the U.S., and the White House expressed satisfaction with the level of cooperation.
This coordination ensures the continuation of American military assistance to Israel in light of a potential Iranian attack.
Wave of Hizbullah Desertions Reported ( Jerusalem Post)
Hizbullah has experienced a wave of desertions, sources told Elaph in a report published Sunday. Some have fled to Syria with their families.
Israel's Knesset Says Time's Up for UNRWA - Zvika Klein ( Jerusalem Post)
On Monday, Israel's Knesset voting 92-10 to finally bar UNRWA from operating within its territories.
For many Israelis, this vote represents a long-overdue consensus that the agency has evolved into something far removed from its original humanitarian mandate.
What the world often misses is that for Israel, UNRWA represents not just an ineffective aid organization but a security liability that is complicit in perpetuating the conflict.
UNRWA grants refugee status to Palestinians generationally, allowing it to pass from parent to child, creating a growing population without a permanent solution.
This unique policy perpetuates a sense of refugeehood that is more about feeding political grievances.
For Israel, this approach creates an ever-expanding pool of individuals with a deeply politicized identity that sees Israel as the enemy.
Israel's decision to ban UNRWA reflects a belief that real peace requires breaking free from structures that breed hostility and dependency.
Israel Expects to Deploy Iron Beam Laser Interception System in 2025 - Yoav Zitun ( Ynet News)
The Israel Defense Ministry announced Monday a $500 million deal with Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Elbit Systems to acquire advanced Iron Beam laser interception systems.
Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir said, "This deal heralds a new era - the era of laser defense," adding that the first operational laser system - the first of its kind worldwide - is expected to be deployed within the next year.
The system has demonstrated its capabilities in recent trials to intercept rockets, mortar shells, drones and cruise missiles.
"Since the outbreak of the war, the Defense Ministry has signed hundreds of procurement orders worth billions to bolster Israeli-manufactured defense capabilities and ensure Israel's self-reliance," said Zamir.
U.S. Contractor Chosen to Deliver Aid to Gaza, End Hamas's Looting - Itamar Eichner ( Ynet News)
Moti Kahana, an American-Israeli businessman and CEO of the American logistics company GDC, says his company has been chosen to serve as a contractor "to
secure humanitarian aid and ensure that civilians in Gaza receive it and that Hamas and other criminals don't steal it."
"This will...allow Israel to focus on fighting terrorism where it needs to. The U.S. Army sometimes brings in contractors and that's how we should be seen too."
GDC "is made up of former soldiers from elite units in the U.S., UK and France. The common denominator is that none of them are Jewish."
Kahana says his employees have extensive experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"The company is made up of 'war junkies,' people who love fighting bad guys. They really believe this is the right thing to do....These are people who have fought terrorism their whole lives."
"This will begin stabilizing post-war Gaza so that people there will understand there's free food available. There isn't a starvation problem in Gaza. The problem is that criminals steal food and sell it, becoming very rich."
"The American plan is to flood Gaza with so much food that the price of sugar won't make it worth stealing."
Israel Is Rebuilding Deterrence Lost on Oct. 7 - Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Avi Benayahu ( Jerusalem Post)
Since the Oct. 7 attack, Israel has displayed remarkable speed and efficiency in restoring - and even strengthening - its deterrence in the eyes of its enemies, neighboring countries in the Middle East, and the global community.
American-made aircraft outfitted with Israeli and American munitions effectively dismantled high-tech Russian defenses, providing a psychological boost to the American defense industry and a tangible win for Israeli-American collaboration.
The writer is a former IDF Spokesperson.
Israel's Strike on Iran also Hit Russian Arms Industry's Image - Daniel Michaels ( Wall Street Journal)
Israel's airstrikes on Saturday didn't just destroy critical Iranian military infrastructure. They also battered the reputation of Russian military equipment.
Iran's Russian-made S-300 air-defense equipment stopped few, if any, of the missiles that Israel launched from jet fighters.
Yet the performance of Russian systems is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Moscow's military exports because it is using every piece of weaponry it can produce. Russian arms exports have plunged since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
French Genocide Researcher Denounces Mass Murder Charges Against Israel - Matt Lebovic ( Times of Israel)
Pioneering Holocaust researcher Father Patrick Desbois, a French-Catholic priest, is an internationally acclaimed expert on identifying modern-day genocide.
In 2008, Desbois published The Holocaust by Bullets: A Priest's Journey to Uncover the Truth behind the Murder of 1.5 Million Jews, referring to hundreds of open-air massacres perpetrated by the Nazis in eastern Europe before the construction of extermination camps in 1942.
Given his expertise in mass murder, Desbois said he is outraged by allegations that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians of Gaza.
Israelis Are Fighting for Their Lives - David Suissa ( Los Angeles Jewish Journal)
Oct. 7 was the day Israel's enemies stopped fearing the Jewish state - the day when the goal of eliminating Israel never felt more real.
On Sep. 17, when thousands of pagers exploded in the hands of Hizbullah terrorists, suddenly Israelis smelled the return of the Israel that its enemies would fear.
After Oct. 7, most Israelis are in no mood to stop, not when their enemies are now on the run.
If anything, they're seeing the logic of pressing their military advantage to go after the biggest threat of all, Iran.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- U.S. Warns Iran at UN Against New Attacks on Israel
U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council on Monday: "On Oct. 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, with many targeting the country's most populous city, Tel Aviv. This brazen attack had the potential to kill hundreds of civilians....Iran's aggressive actions against Israel, including in support of its terrorist proxy Hizbullah in Lebanon, are unacceptable."
"There is also firm international consensus that Israel has a right to defend itself against Iran's attacks. And that is precisely what Israel did this weekend, when it carried out a targeted, proportional, and direct military response against Iran, with no reports of civilian harm. Specifically, Israel conducted precision airstrikes against multiple military targets across Iran and outside populated areas."
"Should [Iran] choose to undertake further aggressive acts against Israel or U.S. personnel in the region, there will be severe consequences....So, we again call on Iran to stop its attacks against Israel, and reign in its terrorist proxies....We must impose costs for supporting terrorism and undermining international peace and stability....We will not allow the region's future to be dictated by Tehran and its proxies." (U.S. Mission to the UN)
- Israel Destroyed Air-Defense Systems Protecting Critical Iranian Energy Sites - Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman
Israel's attacks on Iran on Oct. 26 destroyed air-defense systems protecting several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, as well as guarding a large gas field and a major port in southern Iran, according to Iranian and Israeli defense officials. The sites targeted included defenses at the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex in Khuzestan Province, the Bandar Imam Khomeini port adjacent to it, and the Abadan oil refinery. Air-defense systems were also struck in Ilam Province, at the refinery for the Tange Bijar gas field.
These critical energy and economic hubs are now vulnerable to future attacks if the cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel continues. Israeli officials said that initial plans, developed immediately after Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, included strikes on targets linked to Iran's energy industry and nuclear project, but the U.S. urged Israel not to do so.
Israel's attacks have effectively taken out four S-300 air-defense systems that Iran had purchased from Russia. Israel disabled one in April in an attack on a military base in Isfahan Province and three on Saturday, at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport and the Malad missile base.
(New York Times)
See also Israel's Iran Strike Increases Probability of Future Attack on Its Nuclear Facilities - Keren Setton
Israel's Oct. 26 strike on Iran's air defense capabilities and missile manufacturing facilities has potentially widespread implications.
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said, "If in the past, there was a low probability that Israel would attack nuclear facilities without American backing, this has now changed. Looking into the future, with Hizbullah now weakened and Israel's ability to operate freely in Iranian airspace, as Iran progresses with its nuclear program, this option can no longer be ruled out. Israel broke its fear barrier with this attack." (Media Line-Ynet News)
- Israeli Parliament Bans UNRWA over Terrorism Ties, Faces International Backlash - Efrat Lachter
The Israeli Knesset on Monday passed legislation aimed at halting the operations of the terror-linked UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) within Israel. "Finally, the iron curtain has fallen on this terrorist organization that we have been fighting against," said Knesset member Yulia Malinovsky from the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, one of the bill's sponsors.
This decision comes despite significant objections from the U.S. administration. U.S. pressure on Israeli politicians to stop the bill was unprecedented, involving direct calls from the U.S. ambassador to Israel to leaders of the major parties in the Knesset. International reactions condemning the Knesset's decision have been swift, especially from governments that have been hostile to the Jewish state.
Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon said Monday: "UNRWA was infiltrated by Hamas many years ago. We have warned the Security Council. That is why today we are taking action that will limit UNRWA capabilities to function in Israel, and we will continue to work with UN organs that want to support humanitarian efforts. We are doing it with the WHO [World Health Organization], with UNICEF, on the polio vaccination campaign and on other campaigns." (Fox News)
See also The UNRWA-Hamas Linkage
Israel sends UNRWA list of 100 terrorists it employs;
UNRWA educators who are Hamas/PIJ operatives
Over 10% of the employees in UNRWA's education system in Gaza who hold senior positions are members of Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
(Israel National Digital Agency)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israeli Knesset Votes 92-10 to Outlaw UNRWA - Eliav Breuer
The Knesset on Monday approved two bills aimed at blocking the activity in areas under Israeli control of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which services Palestinian refugees in eastern Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank. Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman MK Yuli Edelstein said UNRWA's operations "eternalized" the issue of Palestinian refugees. He cited the fact that UNRWA employees had participated, and even served as commanders, in the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre. He also noted incitement against Israel in UNRWA school curriculums.
Edelstein called the bills the "elimination of one of the arms of terror that acted under UN auspices. UNRWA long ago ceased to be a humanitarian aid agency, but in addition to it being an integral supporter of terror and hate, is an agency to eternalize poverty and suffering. The rationale is simple - in order to survive, UNRWA created demand for the product it provides. The circle of horror ended today, they are out!"
MK Sharren Haskel, the initial initiator of the law, told the Knesset:
"Israel has full and absolute right to act against UNRWA, after the failure of the international community. The organization, founded in sin and fundamentally corrupted, lies at the heart of the Israeli-Arab conflict. We will never succeed in moving forward as long as this organization and its definition exist. I call on the countries of the world to abandon their support for the organization and to work with us towards the complete closure of UNRWA." (Jerusalem Post)
See also Knesset Bans UNRWA Activity in Israel - Sivan Hilaie
Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman MK Yuli Edelstein said:
"As part of the committee's discussions on the law, a video was shown that proves the involvement of UNRWA personnel in kidnapping a body to Gaza and other evidence of their activity in Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. In addition, the person who commanded the massacre in the Be'eri bomb shelter, where 16 Israelis were murdered and from which four were kidnapped to Gaza, was an UNRWA terrorist."
"In light of this, and since it has been proven to the State of Israel that UNRWA and its employees acted against the State of Israel, the State must determine that UNRWA's activities in its territory will be stopped. The State of Israel will provide every service it is obligated to provide to its citizens and residents in all those places where UNRWA operated."
One of the law's author's, MK Boaz Bismuth, said: "If you really want stability, if you really want security, if you want real peace in the Middle East, organizations like UNRWA won't bring you there. If the United Nations is not willing to clean this organization from terrorism, from Hamas activists, then we have to take measures to make sure that they cannot harm our people ever again." (Ynet News)
- Israel Traps Terrorists in Northern Gaza - Avi Ashkenazi
The IDF said Monday that within hours in a single night a week ago, it had trapped hundreds of terrorists inside Jabalya in northern Gaza, including senior operatives. The IDF encircled the area, evacuated the civilian population, isolated the terrorists, and prevented them from escaping. Some 600 terrorists surrendered, while hundreds of others were eliminated.
At Kamal Adwan Hospital in Jabalya, which served as a Hamas command center, 60 terrorists surrendered and 20 were eliminated. Terrorists were hiding in the hospital wards and were using patients as human shields. The IDF estimated that only a few hundred terrorists remained in Jabalya.
(Jerusalem Post)
- Gaza Ambulance Driver Admits Hamas Uses Hospitals - Jerusalem Post
Hamas uses hospitals for terror purposes, an ambulance driver at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Jabalya confirmed during his interrogation in a video released by the IDF on Monday. The driver stated, "Hamas military operatives are present; they are in the courtyards, at the gates of the buildings, in the offices of Kamal Adwan Hospital."
"They operate ambulances to transport their wounded military operatives, and to transport them for their missions, and this is instead of using the ambulances for the benefit of civilians. We, the public in northern Gaza, are sick of this situation. We have had enough; they (Hamas) are stationed in the hospitals, stationed in the schools." (Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Won't Withdraw from Southern Lebanon without Solution that Prevents Hizbullah from Returning to Israel's Border - Tovah Lazaroff
The IDF won't withdraw from southern Lebanon "until there is a permanent ceasefire and an effective solution" that would prevent Hizbullah from regrouping along Israel's border, an Israeli source said Tuesday. "Our objective is to push Hizbullah and its Radwan forces back behind the Litani River so that Hizbullah will not be on the border," the source said. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Iran Has Been Proven to Be a Paper Tiger - Yossi Melman
IDF war planners have planned to strike Iran for years, but always feared the worst-case scenario: downed planes, pilots captured, and Israeli citizens hung as spies in Tehran's central squares. On Saturday, more than 60 U.S.-made F-35, F-16, and F-15s, accompanied by Boeing mid-air fueling planes and early warning air intelligence aircraft, with 150 Israeli air crew, flew 1,600 km. for two hours, passing over Syria and Iraq, and entered Iranian air space.
Within three hours, with precision guided missiles, they hit 20 targets in five regions across Iran, including near Tehran, the first time since the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 that a strike has hit the outskirts of Tehran. The ramifications are enormous. Iran, for all its rhetoric, has been proven to be a paper tiger. It will take at least two years for its anti-aircraft defenses to be resupplied by Russia. Until that happens, Iran is blind, deaf and has been humiliated. Israel has once again proven its aerial and intelligence superiority.
Israel has sent a clear message to Iranian leaders that it knows about Iran's military bases, its headquarters, air defense systems, missile depots, and command-and-control centers. Iran's leaders and much of the public know this as well.
Their secrets are an open book to Israeli and American intelligence, which have been collaborating and devising plans against the Islamic regime for years. (Spectator-UK)
- How Would the U.S. Handle a Nuclear Iran? - Walter Russell Mead
Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, pleased both his American and Gulf Arab allies by refraining from attacks on Iran's nuclear sites and oil refineries. But deterrence was restored. Israeli warplanes didn't only cripple Iran's air-defense systems and inflict painful blows on its missile-producing facilities. They also sent a message that Israel knows where Tehran's strategic vulnerabilities are, and it can destroy them any time it wants.
The strikes underlined a key point about the Middle East power balance. Military forces that have access to American military technology and intelligence-gathering capabilities can wipe the floor with militaries that rely on Moscow.
Despite its spectacular achievements, Israel has a long way to go in this war. The fighting in Gaza has gone on much longer and has been far bloodier than Israel hoped, and Hizbullah is stubbornly resisting in the north. Iran's strategy of advancing its regional agenda by mobilizing proxies that threaten both Israel and the Gulf Arabs has been tested but not broken by the fighting so far.
As long as the Islamic Republic of Iran remains a serious and implacably anti-Israel contender for hegemony across the Middle East, Israel needs American help in any long war with Iran. That's a big problem. Whoever wins next week's presidential election, the U.S. in 2025 will likely be more interested in avoiding a war in the Middle East than helping Israel deal with the mullahs once and for all.
The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College. (Wall Street Journal)
Hizbullah
- Taking the War to Hizbullah - Matthew Levitt
The IDF is back in southern Lebanon. But unlike in the 2006 war with Hizbullah, Israeli military and intelligence planners are benefiting from years of intelligence collection and improved battlefield tactics. The Israeli government's main strategic goal is to ensure that Iran's primary proxy remains too weak to pose a serious threat to Israeli security.
Within the span of a couple of weeks, the Israeli military carried out a series of attacks that have significantly degraded Hizbullah's leadership and its operational capacity. The group still has thousands of fighters and no shortage of small arms, but the loss of its leadership, command centers, rockets and weapons, and frontline infrastructure along the border with Israel means the group no longer presents a clear and present strategic threat to Israel.
Nevertheless, its armed fighters are all it needs to continue intimidating fellow Lebanese who challenge the group. Hizbullah has a history of raising its arms against fellow Lebanese when challenged. Political will aside, nobody in Lebanon will even consider taking on Hizbullah if they fear that the group can still fight challengers at home. And what's done in Lebanon will determine whether a new version of Hizbullah emerges to present a threat to Israel.
The writer is director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
The Gaza War
- Hamas Persists in Gaza Dead Zones - Yoav Zitun
On Oct. 7, 2023, in a single strike, Hamas shattered the notion that maintaining its rule in Gaza, along with cash infusions into the Palestinian enclave, could serve as a sufficient deterrent. After more than a year of fighting, there is consensus that the IDF must maintain operational freedom in Gaza to prevent the rebuilding of terrorist organizations' power.
By early 2024, Israel had ceased its ground offensive in 70% of Gaza's territory, and by August, 20% more, including Rafah, was similarly quiet. In the remaining areas, the presence of hostages led to a halt in direct military action. The IDF has not operated across most of Gaza's territory for over six months.
Yet in some zones that the IDF has left, Hamas has managed to reactivate some of its tunnels and has rigged many areas with explosives, reestablishing its presence using the cover of the local population. In large cities such as Khan Yunis, signs of Hamas's resurgence are apparent. As time passes, the IDF increasingly acknowledges that a full withdrawal from Gaza's Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors remains unlikely in the near future.
As a military force, Hamas has sustained significant losses. Estimates indicate that 80-90% of its mid- to long-range rocket stockpile has been destroyed, and 15,000-20,000 Hamas fighters have been killed or incapacitated out of an original 30,000. Hamas continues to recruit, while thousands of additional fighters come from other factions, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Large portions of Hamas's tunnel network remain as disconnected local structures rather than the integrated "metro network." Many are located in areas where the IDF has refrained from operating, such as central Gaza towns, due to fears that these sites may be holding hostages. Current estimates indicate that 50 captives remain alive.
Since Oct. 7, the war has claimed the lives of 771 Israeli soldiers, including 360 who fell in Gaza. 2,368 soldiers have been wounded, 452 seriously.
(Ynet News)
- If You Want to Criticize, You Should Be Criticizing Hamas - Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) interviewed by Lulu Garcia-Navarro
Q: You've become one of the most pro-Israel Democrats in the Senate. Where does your affinity with the State of Israel come from?
Fetterman: "I think it's really about, that's our ally. There's a special relationship....Err on the side of democracy. And that is the only democracy in the middle of that region. And I've had the chance to visit there. And that's the kind of society that has those same kinds of values that we live and what we aspire to, especially, ironically, progressives, especially for women and members of the LGBTQ communities. And that's why, for me, it's an easy choice."
"One of the enduring truths through this is that Israel continues to confront the kinds of singular evil that really manifested its way on Oct. 7. And they have the right to destroy Hamas, and now Hizbullah. You know, everybody, experts describe Hizbullah as like the ultimate badass, and Israel demolished them."
"The price is terrible. It's awful. That's history. And that's war. And Israel was forced to fight an enemy that are cowardly. They hide in tunnels. They hide in schools and in refugee camps. And they're in those kinds of places and that forces them to reach them. They have to go through these civilians. That's why they're so evil."
"The death and destruction and the misery was designed by Hamas. They understood that that's going to happen. They don't care. So we can both agree that the misery and the deaths in Gaza are terrible. And, you know, some people blame Israel. Well, I blame Hamas."
"I thought it was really curious that Democrats felt like they needed politically to criticize Israel, but that would be difficult, so they found that, well, we're going to just focus on Netanyahu. And you can think he's a bad leader or a bad person or anything, but that happens to be the democratically [elected] leader of Israel. And he's on our side. That's our ally. And if you had to pick who you want to criticize, you should be criticizing Hamas. You should be calling out Iran, or you should be calling out Hizbullah. Certainly not, you know, our ally. I think it was incredibly unhelpful." (New York Times)
Observations:
- The frame of mind that animated the defunct peace process continues to inform Israeli, American, and European political, administrative, and military actions. This is because the peace process is a conceptual framework rooted in a particular worldview.
- At the tactical level, Israel assumed a defensive, rather than offensive, military posture reliant on technological superiority. Like the rest of the West, Israel believed that its technological advantage was a sufficient deterrent. A "small, smart army" would therefore suffice because technology had made large ground wars obsolete. But our enemies were not deterred by our superior technology. They adapted to it and used low tech to subvert it.
- Israel's first choice was negotiations that would establish an agreed-upon border between two nation-states, tired of wars and determined to move toward cooperative coexistence. But peace was not forthcoming, when in 2000, then-prime minister Ehud Barak offered Yasir Arafat all the Israeli public could stomach and then some, only to be turned down and rewarded with the Second Intifada.
- So Israelis chose unilateral partition from Gaza with the 2005 disengagement. It was a trial-run for Palestinian statehood, based on the hope that the Palestinians would come around and realize, after tasting political independence and economic opportunities, the folly of endless war.
- The trial failed almost immediately. Rockets kept raining on Israel's towns after the disengagement and, in 2007, Hamas violently eliminated the PLO in Gaza, establishing a terror quasi-state. A regular, unending influx of international aid rendered economic development unnecessary. Aid flowed in because Israeli intelligence believed a higher standard of living would help pacify the Strip.
- Israel imagined the Palestinian national movement in the image of ours. We assumed that national self-determination was its goal and that Palestinians would seize the opportunity to assume political independence so they could build their political and economic future. But nation-building was never on their agenda. We would have understood this if we had studied their political culture seriously, instead of assuming they share ours.
- It was folly to imagine that of all Arab peoples, the Palestinians would prove the exception that would produce a stable nation-state. The principal grievance of the Palestinian cause is not the absence of a desired nation-state but the existence of another one.
- We also projected our own misconceptions of human nature onto the Palestinians. Contemporary Western elites assume that we all want a decent job, food on the table, and a safe environment to raise our children. But when we conceive of all life in these materialistic terms, we lose the ability to imagine the human capacity for evil.
- Encouraged by assumptions from America and Europe, Israelis failed to believe in their neighbors' sinister intentions. We did not take seriously their theology of hate, their deep-seated racism, and the depth of their barbaric sadism.
The writer is a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
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