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Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs
DAILY ALERT
Sunday,
November 17, 2024
In-Depth Issues:

The IDF's Plans for Security in Gaza without Military Rule - Ron Ben-Yishai (Ynet News)
    Hamas's demands for a ceasefire in Gaza before even considering any negotiation is delaying the end of the war.
    While aid trucks enter Gaza from Israel, they face looting on the way to distribution centers, or they are intercepted by Hamas, crime families and profiteers who sell the supplies at inflated prices.
    Hamas is trying to deflect IDF pressure by circulating reports of mass starvation.
    Meanwhile, Hamas is recruiting teenagers, aged 14 to 17, to join its ranks as armed operatives.
    Looking to the future, the IDF plans to maintain an intelligence-operational presence in Gaza - without full occupation, military governance or direct responsibility for humanitarian distribution.
    To provide security for Israeli civilians, the IDF intends to maintain control over secure corridors, including the Philadelphi Corridor - to prevent external support to Hamas from Sinai, alongside a security buffer zone approximately a kilometer wide on Gaza's side of the border.
    These corridors will enable intelligence operations that closely monitor activities within Gaza, aimed at detecting any Hamas attempts to rebuild its military capabilities.
    The corridors would enable IDF forces to rapidly deploy to any area in Gaza where intelligence identifies renewed weapons production, rocket fire, or preparations for terror attacks and guerrilla operations by Hamas or other groups.


IDF Seeks Ceasefire in Lebanon on Its Terms - Ron Ben-Yishai (Ynet News)
    In Lebanon, the IDF is applying military pressure to advance an agreement for a reinforced UN Resolution 1701 that would reaffirm a demilitarized buffer zone along the border with Israel and throughout southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
    The IDF seeks to enforce the terms if the Lebanese army and UNIFIL do not fulfill their roles.
    Although 80% of Hizbullah's rocket arsenal has been destroyed, its remaining capabilities are still enough to send millions of Israelis daily to shelters.
    Hizbullah views this tactic as a means to wear down Israel's resolve and push it to relax its demands.
    On Wednesday, IDF forces began advancing from the line of Lebanese border villages northward, aiming to demonstrate to Hizbullah that each passing day brings greater loss of assets.
    The IDF is concentrating both ground and air operations on neutralizing launchers for short-range rockets.
    The IDF's detection and interception capabilities for drones have significantly improved in recent days, with interception rates now nearly 90%.


While Hizbullah and Israel Are Fighting, Is Lebanon Imploding? - Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
    In September 2024, Israel began an offensive against Hizbullah, which had been attacking Israel with rockets since Oct. 8, 2023.
    The IDF campaign is designed to enable the return of 80,000 Israelis who had been forced to abandon their homes.
    Within a few months, Israel had succeeded in decapitating Hizbullah, eliminating most of its field commanders and killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his supposed successor, Hashem Nasr el Din.
    The restraint that Israel had shown since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006 was replaced by intensive bombardments throughout Lebanon and by a ground incursion that erased 29 Lebanese villages, destroyed almost 40,000 apartments, and displaced more than 1.5 million inhabitants of southern Lebanon.
    Some 400,000 Syrian refugees who had fled to Lebanon with the outbreak of the civil war in Syria returned to Syria.
    Despite the destruction, parts of the Christian and Sunni parties and most of the Shia community are still siding with Hizbullah. At the same time, Lebanon is struggling to survive as a state.
     As always, the Lebanese seek foreign intervention and aid to save them from themselves.
    There is only a slim chance that any ceasefire agreement would be honored because of the unwillingness of any Lebanese administration to fight Hizbullah.
     The writer, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.


Antisemitism in America: My Campus Tour - Bernard-Henri Levy (Wall Street Journal)
    How should we respond, a brilliant and distressed student of Ohio University asks me, to professors who tell us that Israel is a "colonial creation"?
    You need to interrupt them. Impeach them. You need to treat them the way the students of May 1968 treated the most reactionary teachers.
    Explain to these ignoramuses that half of the Jewish founders of Israel were indigenous and that, if the others did indeed often come from Europe, they weren't conquerors but refugees - escapees whom Europe regarded as garbage.
    The writer is a French philosopher, war reporter, documentary-maker, and author of more than 30 books.


Interest in Aliyah from North America Spikes despite War - Hanan Greenwood (Israel Hayom)
    Nefesh B'Nefesh, which supports immigration to Israel by Jews from North America, reported that it has processed 13,000 immigration files from the U.S. and Canada this year, up from 7,500 during the same period in 2023.

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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Israel Destroyed Active Nuclear Weapons Research Facility in Iran - Barak Ravid
    The Israeli attack on Iran on Oct. 26 destroyed the Taleghan 2 facility, an active, top secret nuclear weapons research facility in the Parchin military complex, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. The strike - which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive - significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research.
        One former Israeli official said the strike destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it. Satellite imagery showed the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed.
        Last June, White House officials privately warned the Iranians about the suspicious research activities. They hoped the warning would make the Iranians stop their nuclear activity, but they continued, the officials said. A U.S. official said that in the months before the Israeli attack "there was concern across the board" about the Iranian activity at the Taleghan 2 facility. (Axios)
  • Pro-Hamas Groups Planting Seeds of Domestic Terrorism in U.S. - Dion J. Pierre
    A new report by the Capital Research Center (CRC) think tank says domestic terrorism may be the end game for the over 150 pro-Hamas groups operating on colleges campuses across the U.S. According to the report, "the movement contains militant elements pushing it toward a wider, more severe campaign focused on property destruction and violence properly described as domestic terrorism. It demands the 'dismantlement' of America's 'colonialist,' 'imperialist,' or 'capitalist' system, often calling for the U.S. to be abolished as a country."
        The group most responsible for the anti-Israel protest movement is Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP). Toolkits published by SJP herald Hamas for perpetrating mass casualties of civilians. SJP has endorsed Iran's attacks on Israel as well as its stated intention to overturn the U.S.-led world order. Other groups under its umbrella have called to "bring the intifada home." Pro-Hamas groups hope to create an army of revolutionaries willing to adopt Hamas's aims as their own. (Algemeiner)
        See also Marching Toward Violence: The Domestic Anti-Israeli Protest Movement - Ryan Mauro (Capital Research Center)
        See also Pro-Palestinian Protesters Vandalize Home, Car of University of Washington President - Sofia Schwarzwalder
    University of Washington President Ana Mari Cauce's home and car were vandalized Wednesday with messages reading "Free Palestine" and "Ana Marie - blood on your hands." A video on Instagram showed protesters spraying red paint on the president's front door and car. (University of Washington Daily)
        See also Jihad on Campus Unmasked: How Pro-Hamas Students for Justice in Palestine Hijacked U.S. Universities - Dr. Dan Diker (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Hizbullah Rocket Hits Haifa Synagogue - Lior El-Hai
    Hizbullah fired at least 10 rockets toward Haifa on Saturday. While some were intercepted by the Iron Dome, one hit and damaged the "Avot U'Banim" synagogue in the city. There were no injuries. (Ynet News)
  • Israeli Attack Kills Two Islamic Jihad Leaders in Damascus
    Israel targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad headquarters in Damascus, the military confirmed on Thursday. PIJ confirmed on Saturday that two of its leaders were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Damascus on Thursday: Rasmi Abu Issa, the head of foreign relations, and Abd Alaziz al-Minawi, a member of the political bureau. (Jerusalem Post)
  • Israel Pounds Hizbullah Stronghold in Beirut - Yoav Zitun
    The IDF carried out eight waves of airstrikes in Beirut's Dahieh district on Saturday, according to Hizbullah-affiliated media. Israel warned residents of the target areas to leave before the attacks. (Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    U.S. Air Force Gains Experience Countering Large-Scale Drone Attacks

  • American Fighter Pilots Describe Taking Down Iranian Drones in Total Darkness - Natasha Bertrand
    On April 13, as Iran fired over 300 drones, ballistic and cruise missiles against Israel, the U.S. military instructed F-15 fighter pilot Maj. Benjamin Coffey to use every weapon at his disposal to help defeat the attack. His crew mate, weapons systems officer Capt. Lacie Hester, and Coffey described to CNN how they flew as close as they could to an Iranian drone and used a gun in total darkness, against a barely visible target. They missed. Ultimately, U.S. forces in the air and at sea, including Hester and Coffey, intercepted 70 drones and three ballistic missiles that night.
        The fighters spent hours in the air in the U.S. Air Force's first real test against a prolonged and large-scale drone attack. The attack drove home how the military will have to grapple with a new generation of warfare that pits multimillion-dollar fighter jets against cheap, slow-moving attack drones that can easily evade highly sophisticated radar systems.
        The fighter jets' most effective weapons against the drones were depleted quickly. The F-15E Strike Eagle can carry only eight air-to-air missiles at a time. F-15 pilot Lt.-Col. Curtis Culver said, "We ran out of missiles pretty quickly...20 minutes maybe."
        The next task was to land at a U.S. military base, as Iranian missiles and drones intercepted by the base's Patriot air defense systems exploded overhead and rained debris down on the runways. Some of the fighter jets had to land with a "hung missile" - where a missile malfunctions and doesn't launch.
        Troops on the ground remained focused on getting the jets back into the air to continue the fight. "There was an airman at one point standing next to a fuel truck with tons and tons of fuel in it, just pumping gas into the jet, with stuff exploding over the base," Culver said. "The courage of that airman, that American, to stand up and do that for an ally, is incredible."  (CNN)
  • Inside an F-15 Mission to Block an Attack on Israel - Greg Hadley
    On April 13, F-15 fighter pilot Maj. Benjamin Coffey and weapons system officer Capt. Lacie Hester anticipated picking up signs of Iranian attack drones and missiles launched at Israel. Coffey said, "We get a radar hit, and another, and another, and another." To be sure the blips were missiles and not cars on the ground, Hester cued the jet's air-to-ground targeting pod to get visual confirmation. "She recognizes there's no roads in that area. It's just open desert," Coffey said. "So all these radar hits that we get, 20 to 30 of them at that initial [sweep], were real, and they were headed west."
        Those hits represented the leading edge of Iran's first-ever direct attack on Israel and perhaps the largest drone attack in history. USAF fighters helped defeat the attack, downing 80 drones in one of the largest displays of combat airpower in decades. Iran's drones have been a common feature in Russia's war on Ukraine, but the U.S. did not have much experience countering those threats.
        The fighter squadron deployed to an undisclosed Middle East location in October 2023 and in April was put on alert status. Anticipating that the Iranian attack would likely come at night, the squadron kept at least two jets in the air, plus extra crews on the ground ready to go within 30 minutes.
        In the air, Coffey and Hester were responsible for multiple "lanes" of airspace that their formation had to defend. Now, they faced an attack on a scale they had never seen before. "This was an attack designed to cause significant damage, to kill, to destroy, and now we are on literally the leading edge of firepower, able to try to do something about that," Coffey said. Confronted with more targets than they could possibly hope to take down by themselves, the aviators started prioritizing the attack drones, directing other U.S. aircraft where to go.
        It didn't take long for every aircraft in the formation to exhaust their firepower. In the span of about 20 minutes, most of the fighters had fired off all eight of their air-to-air missiles. When more fighters arrived with fresh firepower, those who remained in the area directed them using their own radar, before turning back themselves. Then "ballistic missiles started blowing up overhead, as Israel started shooting them down," said Capt. Matthew Eddins. (Air & Space Forces)


    • Iran

  • Iran Is Much Weaker than the Last Time It Faced Donald Trump - Hal Brands
    In his second term as president, Donald Trump will encounter a region in which Israeli military successes have dramatically reset the balance of power. That creates the possibility for a bold play to roll back Iran's influence and curb its nuclear program.
        While a year ago, Israel looked shockingly vulnerable and Iran and its proxies seemed ascendant, today, Israel has wrecked most of Hamas's military capability in Gaza. In Lebanon, Hizbullah can still fire rockets, but its leadership and long-range capabilities have been ravaged by Israeli assaults. Iran's proxies are battered, its air defenses shredded, and its missile arsenal devalued.
        President Joe Biden deserves some credit here. Yes, Biden has often urged caution on Israel. Still, Biden has given Israel the arms, the diplomatic assistance and the time necessary to take the offensive.
        The writer is Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.  (Bloomberg)
  • Iran after Trump's Reelection - Sima Shine and Raz Zimmt
    Donald Trump's reelection is a concerning scenario for Tehran. Iran's Kayhan newspaper, considered close to the Iranian leader, responded to the U.S. election results with an editorial titled "America Is the Great Satan - Irrespective of Who Is President." In Tehran, leaders are particularly concerned about the incoming administration's intention to return to the "maximum pressure" policy aimed at isolating Iran and financially weakening it through severe sanctions.
        In the short term, Iran must decide its response to the Israeli counterattack on Oct. 26. Israel has pledged to respond to any Iranian attack, which could target Iran's nuclear program or vital oil facilities. Refraining from a response, however, risking further erosion of Iran's deterrence power against Israel and potentially signaling weakness to its regional proxies and domestic support base.
        The option for dialogue with the American administration still exists. During his first term, President Trump expressed readiness to negotiate with Tehran in the fall of 2019, and during his recent campaign, Trump also declared his intention to pursue a new deal with Iran. Furthermore, Trump refrained from a military response to Iranian provocations, which included the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September 2019.
        However, it remains doubtful whether Khamenei will be prepared to soften his position or agree to meaningful concessions on the nuclear program that would facilitate a settlement with the new administration, particularly one that the U.S. would consider a new and improved agreement.
        The growing influence of the Revolutionary Guards, who often adopt a more hawkish and defiant stance toward the West, heighten the risk of a more severe confrontation between Iran and the U.S.
        Sima Shine, director of the Iran and Shi'ite Axis program at INSS, served as Head of the Research & Evaluation Division of the Mossad. Dr. Raz Zimmt is a Senior Researcher at INSS.  (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)


    • Hamas

  • Iran's Radicalism and Hamas's Fundamentalism Endanger Europe and Beyond - Pinhas Inbari
    Since Trump ended his first presidency, Palestinian secular nationalism has declined, while the Palestinians' fundamentalist religious narrative is on the rise. Today, that narrative is imbued with Hamas Islamist ideology, which Iran is likely to deploy as a new means to destabilize Europe and, eventually, the U.S.
        In the recent Islamist violence against Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam, the pogromists did not call for the liberation of Palestine or a Palestinian state; their passionate appeal was: "Jews are a cancer!" The outbreak in the Netherlands was only the latest in a spate of violence in all the European cities with large Muslim populations.
        When Hamas attacked Israel's Gaza border communities, it did not speak of a war of liberation and a Palestinian state, but, rather, of a religious war to liberate Jerusalem. Hamas called on all the fronts surrounding Israel to join the war under the cloak of religion.
        The name Hamas chose for the war - the Al-Aqsa Flood - was taken from the Islamic State, which used it after the group's establishment in Mosul, Iraq. Islamists believe that Allah will bring a worldwide flood and only those within the ark of the Islamic State will survive to establish a new world. The choice of this theme by Sinwar was meant to convey that Hamas was the successor to the Islamic State, and the liberation of Al-Aqsa would unite all the Muslims under the flag of Islam.
        The ominous events in Amsterdam indicate the degree to which Europe's Muslims have operationalized Hamas's messages. Radical Islam in Europe is taking a new form. Until now, the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership in Europe preferred a quiet infiltration of the European social and political milieu, rejecting the Islamic State's approach of terror attacks.
        The writer, a veteran Arab affairs correspondent, is a fellow at the Jerusalem Center.  (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
Observations:

Iran Rethinks Strategy amid Trump's Return to Power and Regional Shifts - Aviram Bellaishe (Jerusalem Post)
  • In the past few weeks, Iran has faced a dilemma regarding the timing of its response to Israel's Oct. 26 counterstrike, in light of the outcome of the U.S. elections. The election results have clearly unsettled the regime in Iran.
  • Trump's previous term was marked by tough measures against Iran: the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and the sanctions on oil sales, which hit Iran's economy particularly hard.
  • Trump's moves reflected his negotiation strategy of striking first and then forcing concessions from the other side, a strategy that, Iranian commentators say, sharply escalated U.S.-Iranian tensions.
  • Iran is today weaker and more vulnerable in economic, social, and security terms than it was in 2016. The war that began on Oct. 7 has undone decades of Iran's buildup of its proxies and its military.
  • Analysts believe Trump would enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to effectuate the total collapse of Hamas in Gaza and offer him freedom of action against Iran.
  • While Trump is unpredictable, factors that clearly drive his Middle East policy include his unique personality; his close aides and his vice president; pro-Israel evangelical Christians; and his close ties with regional actors such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Netanyahu.
  • Tehran, therefore, is reconsidering its steps. The fear is that a further provocation of Trump might make him even more dangerous than four years ago.

    The writer, vice president for strategy, security, and communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years.
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